Research On Short-term Terminal Capacity Assessment Under Weather Conditions

Capacity evaluation is an objective evaluation of airspace service capability,and reasonable evaluation of airspace capacity is helpful to the implementation of traffic management strategy.In the air traffic management,controllers as the representative of human factors are the leading role for the development and evolution of the traffic system.In this paper,we use the theory and research method of human behavior dynamics to explore the distribution characteristics of controllers’ communication behavior in time and space dimensions,providing a starting point for a new understanding of the workload and airspace capacity evaluation.Meteorological factors are important factors in affecting the airspace.ATC guide aircraft by changing flight path to ensure the stable operation of traffic flow.In this paper,we take the flight path information as a necessary input,and use temporal and spatial distribution parameter of controller’s communication behavior.By changing the ‘time length of workload’ standard into ‘frequency of workload’ standard,we establish the sector capacity evaluation model to fit multi weather conditions.Furthermore,based on category of communication events,this paper studies the characteristics of controller workload in time series,and establishes the capacity evaluation model to obtain nominal sector capacity in short period.We analyzes the spatial characteristics of controller workload,and extract the parameters that influence the spatial characteristics.By finding out the relationship between parameters and workload intensity,spatial workload intensity forecasting model is made.When meteorological factors influence the airspace,the original route structure is changed.According to workload intensity forecasting model,capacity correction factor is calculated to fix nominal capacity.Then,capacity of new condition of airspace is obtained.In terms of the evaluation of terminal area airspace,we take the spatial difference of ATC behavior into account,and propose the concept of attention allocation based on intention of controller.By integrating unit workload of flight route,we obtain the route capacity based on workload.And then,we use network flow theory to establish terminal capacity prediction model.Taking the workload into the modeling process is an important supplement to the terminal airspace capacity evaluation method,and it emphasizes the important role of human factors in the process of capacity evaluation.When bad weather occurs in the terminal airspace,flight paths of the aircraft often change.According to severity of weather,we divide the impact of flight path changing into two cases: fixed topology of terminal route network and changed topology of terminal route network.In this paper,we analysis the calculation method of attention allocation and unit workload of flight route in details,so as to obtain the route capacity under different conditions,and use the network flow theory to solve the prediction problem of terminal capacity under meteorological effect.