Research On Airspace Capacity Assessment And Forecast

Along with the increasing of air traffic flow, scientific decisions are needed for the air traffic control and air traffic flow management. Airspace capacity is one of the important basis of air traffic control and air traffic flow management decision-making. Under this background, there is urgent need to improve the existing airspace capacity assessment methods and make reasonable prediction for airspace operation capacity, so as to reflect the variation of airspace capacity under the ever-changing running environment and conditions, and to provide the scientific basis for the air traffic control and traffic management for decision making.This paper mainly researches on airspace capacity assessment and prediction technology. First, optimizes the existing capacity assessment technique, perfects airport and sector static capacity assessment methods and assessment results, provides a more scientific capacity to predict the benchmark capacity; Then, sums up and summarizes the method system of capacity prediction technology in China and the actual operation requirements, makes in-depth study of the airport terminal area and sector run capacity prediction technology, and carries on empirical research. In this paper, the research achievements meet with the actual needs of domestic air traffic control and flight flow oriented management system construction. They have practical guiding meaning for the reasonable use of airspace resources, reduction of unnecessary delays and insurance of the safe operation.In this paper, the main research contents and results are as follows:(1) It studies in-depth the assessment of airport historical peak service capability assessment method, which is a kind of capacity assessment method. It clearly defines the parameters that is going to be used in the existing airport historical peak service capability assessment method. Then multi-index is used to testify the assessment result of airport historical peak service capability. More accurate assessment of the capacity can bring us better benchmark for the prediction of airport capacity;(2) The correlation relationship between ATCO workload and the traffic flow is studied to reveal the characteristics of the relationship and inner patterns of the two. The result can offer ideas and research basis for the measuring of ATCO workload and assessment of sector capacity from the aspect of micro patterns;(3) Sector capacity assessment method based on ATCO workload is studied. This method comprehensively takes into consideration of the air route/route structure, time and space distribution of traffic flow and operation patterns inside the sector. It established the relationship between sector capacity and ATCO workload and analyzes the relationship between traffic organization inside the sector and sector capacity. The result can offer benchmark capacity information to the prediction of sector capacity;(4)It studies and summarizes the capacity prediction method under convective weather conditions. Based on the classification of methods prediction capacity, it reviews the research progress and current situation of this field from the aspects of airspace availability, maximum traffic flow, the weather index(WITI), scenario classification, ATCO workload limit and modeling and simulation. It puts forward the applicable range and pros and cons of each method. It also summarizes the main issues and aspects need to be improved in the research of capacity prediction technology under convective weather conditions so as to supply theoretical basis for the multiple technology integrated airport and sector capacity prediction methods;(5) Multiple technology integrated airport and sector capacity prediction method is studied. Based on the previous summary of benchmark capacity assessment and capacity prediction technology as well as the actual situation of Chinese control operation, the features of WITI, scenario classification, ATCO workload limit and modeling and simulation are combined together to establish the comprehensive airport terminal capacity prediction method. Hangzhou Xiaoshan airport terminal area is used to test the feasibility and implementation effect of this method.This Paper systematically establishes the research ideas of airspace capacity assessment and prediction. It studies and enriches the theory and method of capacity assessment and prediction. It strongly facilitates the work of air traffic control and traffic management.