| Extreme weather is frequent around the world,and climate change is forcing countries to take carbon reduction actions.As the world's largest energy consumer and carbon emitter,China has adopted a series of policy measures and publicly committed to carbon emission reduction targets to the international community.However,under the energy consumption structure dominated by high-carbon energy sources such as coal and oil,China urgently needs to carry out a low-carbon and clean transformation of its energy system in order to cope with the problems caused by climate change and environmental pollution,and to ensure the health and stability of the social economy.and sustainable development,for which China has proposed the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.In order to complete the carbon peak on time in 2030,it is necessary to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction through green and low-carbon transformation of energy.In the case of economic growth from high-speed development to high-quality development,technological progress is the main driving force,and energy structure upgrades are the secondary power to promote energy transition.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the transformation of the energy system from the two basic paths of energy structure update and technological progress.After reviewing the historical changes of energy structure update and technological progress,the main path of the current energy transition—the influencing factors of technological progress are discussed to further formulate policies to promote energy transition and achieve the goal of peaking carbon emissions by 2030.However,with the development of the energy system,the role of technological progress in reducing emissions has gradually converged,and the role of energy structure renewal has gradually increased.Therefore,taking Gansu Province as,which is rich in renewable energy,as an example,from the perspective of geography,combined with regional advantages,we design the transformation path of Gansu's energy system under the combined effect of technological and structural renewal,mainly based on the future energy structure update.In the promotion and implementation of energy transformation,the benefits of positive externalities of clean energy are analyzed to make it market-oriented operation to promote the implementation of energy transformation.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)In the process of energy transition,technological progress plays a dominant role.By using the method of ridge regression,the contribution of related factors to the decline of energy intensity in China is estimated based on the STIRPAT model,and the differences in the contribution of related technical factors in different periods are analyzed separately.The conclusion is that the relevant influencing factors of technological progress mainly include foreign investment,labor force,R?D investment,patents,clean energy share and import of goods and services.Ridge regression can effectively reduce the multicollinearity between variables when using the ordinary least squares regression method,and give the effect of each technical variable on the decrease of energy intensity.Among them,the impact of patents has a lag,and the impact of imports has a phased effect.Among them,the growth of the share of clean energy per unit has the largest contribution to the change of energy intensity,followed by labor force and foreign direct investment,which has a significant role in promoting China's energy technology innovation.From 1990 to 2002,technology update was mainly based on technology spillover.After 2005,the power of technology update gradually shifted to domestic technology research and development.(2)Taking Gansu Province,which is rich in wind and solar resources as an example,combined with the large-scale development trend of renewable energy in the future,assuming that the future energy structure update and technological progress will play a role together,the Energy PLAN model is applied to the energy system of Gansu Province in 2025 and 2030.Make simulation predictions.Taking carbon emissions,system transformation cost,total energy consumption,the proportion of renewable energy in total energy consumption and excess power as the optimization goals,the multi-objective optimization of multiple energy system solutions was carried out to select the best path of Gansu energy transition.The results show that under the multi-objective balance condition,wind power should be the first choice for the development of renewable energy in Gansu Province in 2025 and 2030,followed by solar energy.In the process of energy system transformation.The path selection must be based on the comparative advantages of the region and the consumption characteristics of renewable energy systems,in order to achieve effective resource allocation.(3)Based on on-the-spot investigation,comprehensively analyze the economic,environmental and social benefits and feasibility of large and medium-sized biogas projects in Gansu rural areas,and found that the economic recovery cycle of large-scale projects is relatively slow and needs to rely on government investment,but in terms of environmental benefits,large-scale biogas projects It shows a good potential to suppress global warming.The use of biogas projects can significantly improve the cooking environment of rural residents and reduce carbon emissions for the government.Under the comprehensive benefit analysis,it is a reasonable choice for the energy market project to choose partial market competition or the same public product model to internalize the positive externality,which provides a reference for the construction of new energy projects in the energy transition process.Based on the above conclusions,in order to better realize the low-carbon transformation of energy and promote the development of China's renewable energy industry,this paper proposes a series of policy recommendations accordingly.The issue of energy transition is complex and dynamic.We should combine regional comparative advantages and actively create conditions to realize green and low-carbon energy transition.Therefore,while enriching the relevant theoretical content of energy transition,this article can enrich the society's cognition of the connotation of energy transition,provide reference for future energy transition-related decision-making on a macro level,and can further deepen the energy transition for regional governments in practice and provide decision support for transformation and new energy promotion. |
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