| Against the background of serious agro-ecological environmental problems such as ecological degradation,over-exploitation of groundwater,increased non-point source pollution,and excessive heavy metals in the soil,pilot implementation of farmland fallow policies to build a farmland fallow system with Chinese characteristics will help significantly promote agricultural ecology,environmental restoration,sustainable use of cultivated land and sustainable agricultural development.Farmers are the main participants and key interest groups in the implementation of fallow.Stabilizing and improving their social and economic conditions such as employment,income and happiness during fallow are important to ensure that fallow farming achieves good ecological benefits,sustainable policy implementation,and the establishment of a fallow system.At present,the first and second rounds of fallow trials in China have ended,but it is unclear whether the policy implementation has achieved the goal of promoting agricultural ecological restoration,and whether it will have a negative impact on the employment,income and happiness of farmers.Although scholars and policy makers have begun to recognize the importance of these issues,there is currently a lack of evaluation and discussion on the effects of farmland fallow policy in both theory and practice.In view of this,this research first review the background,current situation and problems of China’s farmland fallow policy;secondly,Secondly,taking Gansu Province as an example,we analyze the characteristics of farmers’ participation in fallow behavior,cultivated land ecological environment,off-farm employment,family income and happiness by using field survey data.Thirdly,based on the external theory,public product theory,farmer behavior theory and impact evaluation theory,we constructs the analysis framework and concept framework of effect evaluation of farmers participating in the fallow of farmland,and uses the survey data of 1240 farmers to analyze the effects of farmers’ participattion in fallow,and tests its mechanism and heterogeneity by comprehensively using PSM,IV,quantile regression,grouping regression and intermediary effect model.Finally,corresponding policy recommendations are put forward on the basis of the above,in order to provide a certain theoretical reference for improving fallow policy and promoting the formation of the fallow system in China.The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The institutional framework of agricultural land fallow in China’s pilot areas has basically taken shape and the initial ecological effects have emerged,but the problems in implementation and the uncertain impact on people’s livelihoods and well-being may constrain policy development and improvement.Farmland fallow is a realistic choice made by China to transform the agricultural development mode and promote the sustainable development of agriculture under the realistic background of the deteriorating agricultural ecological environment.It is also an important practical way for my country to promote the structural reform of the agricultural supply side.Compared with Western developed countries,the implementation of fallow farmland in China is relatively late.Since the start of the pilot,the policy has been promoted rapidly,and the overall coverage has been broad and the scale of the pilot has been expanding year by year.At present,the technical models of fallow farmland in the typical pilot areas across the country have their own characteristics and are becoming mature,with various forms of organization and implementation,gradually improving the supervision and evaluation mechanism.The framework of the fallow system has basically taken shape;the ecological effects of fallow agriculture have initially appeared;and farmers’ satisfaction with the policy is generally Higher.However,due to the lack of publicity,single type of compensation,unbalanced compensation,insufficient scientific and technological support,low management level,high maintenance and supervision costs,and the lack of practical investigation and research,the impact is uncertain,which jointly restricts the development of fallow policy and the realization of goals.(2)Farmers’ participation in farmland fallow has generally achieved better ecological effects,but the full play of ecological effects is constrained by geographical and climatic factors,insufficient funds for management and care,and inadequate supervision.An evaluation of the ecological effects of farmers’ participation in farmland fallow found that: First of all,the pilot policy of farmland fallow can achieve the goal of improving the agricultural ecological environment.Fallow farming has increased the comprehensive level of farmland ecological environment of farmers in Northwestern China by 4.40%,indicating that the pilot policy is improving and the local ecological environment of cultivated land has played a positive role,and the establishment of a fallow system in the Northwest region also has a certain ecological benefit guarantee.Secondly,fallow farmland has significantly improved the agro-ecological and environmental problems such as salinization of farm floors,soil desertification,biodiversity,farmland pollution,and farmland fertility.However,it is affected by the harsh weather conditions of the local area with year-round drought and less rain.Due to the damage to the field infrastructure and lack of funds for repairs and other reasons,the fallow of farmland has no significant effect on improving the drought and water shortage,soil erosion and farming conditions of farmland.Therefore,although farmland fallow can achieve certain ecological effects,the full use of its ecological effects still needs to further improve the fallow policy.(3)Farmers’ participation in farmland fallow has the social effect of promoting their offfarm employment,and it mainly promotes increased off-farm employment time and employment income,with limited effect on increasing the probability and number of farmers’ off-farm employment.Farmland fallow reduces rural employment opportunities,and its implementation tends to squeeze out farmers’ agricultural employment to a certain extent,leaving part of the rural labor force surplus and idle.The employment status of fallow farmers is related to the social stability of fallow areas,and also restricts the implementation effect of fallow farmland.An empirical analysis of the effects of non-agricultural employment on farmland fallow shows that: first,farmland fallow can increase the possibility of farmers’ nonagricultural employment,but the effect space is very limited.From the perspective of specific employment decision-making options,farmland fallow can only improve the probability of farmers choosing non-agricultural operations,but has no significant impact on the choice of local migrant workers and migrant workers.Secondly,the impact of fallow farmland on the intensity of non-agricultural employment is mainly to squeeze out the non-agricultural employment time of rural households rather than the number of employed persons.Specifically,it squeezes out non-agricultural employment time and non-agricultural business time.The increase in the number of non-agricultural workers is only caused by fallow.The result of the labor force within the rural households shifting from local migrant workers to migrant workers.Finally,farmland fallow is beneficial to increaseing the total non-agricultural income of farmers,income from non-agricultural employment and non-agricultural business income,and is achieved by squeezing out the corresponding employment time.(4)Farmers’ participation in farmland fallow has a significant economic effect of promoting income growth,but there is also a negative economic effect of widening the income gap between farmers.Stabilizing and improving the income of fallow farmers is of great significance to prevent their re-cultivation behavior and ensure the effective implementation of fallow,and then promote the formation of good income and ecological effect expectations on fallow farmland,which is of great significance to encourage their subsequent participation and the formation of fallow system.The results of evaluating the economic effects of farmland fallow from the perspectives of income level and income gap show that: First of all,farmers in the pilot area mainly rely on non-agricultural income,and there is no serious income inequality between them.Participating in farmland fallow will not change their main source of income,which has an impact on its income mainly in increasing the income level(an increase of 8.09%),but also widens the income gap(an increase of 3.56%).Second,the analysis of the mechanism shows that fallow farmland will not affect the property income of farmers,and significantly reduce agricultural income.It mainly increases transfer income by granting fallow subsidies and promotes non-agricultural employment for farmers to increase non-agricultural income and jointly promotes farmers in poor areas.But this has also widened the transfer income gap between farmers and the non-agricultural income gap,thereby exacerbating the total income gap of farmers in the region.(5)Farmers’ participation in farmland fallow helps to improve the happiness of farmers.It mainly comes from the ecological improvement and income increase brought by farmland fallow,and the negative effect of income gap is less than the positive impact of the former two.Happiness is an important comprehensive indicator that reflects people’s livelihood,and can more comprehensively reflect and measure the ecological environment and socio-economic conditions of farmers.The empirical analysis of the impact of farmland fallow on the happiness of farmers shows that: First,farmland fallow can significantly increase the subjective happiness of farmers(an increase of 6.301%).By adjusting variables and changing the empirical method,the results are still stable.Therefore,the current fallow policy in Northwest China has a positive impact on the socio-economic status of farmers,and the implementation and sustainability of farmland fallow has a good guarantee of "happiness".Secondly,farmland fallow has the social effect of increasing the non-agricultural employment time and income of farmers,but it cannot improve the subjective well-being of farmers.The improvement of the ecological environment and the increase of farmers’ income are the two important indirect ways to improve the subjective well-being of farmers.Although farmland fallow reduces the subjective well-being of farmers by widening the income gap between farmers,the happiness effect brought by it through ecological and income-increasing effects far exceeds the above reduction.(6)The ecological,off-farm employment,income,and well-being effects of participation in farmland fallow were heterogeneous in terms of the degree of farm participation and policy implementation.From the point of view of ecological effects,as the degree of participation increases,the ecological effects show an increasing trend,but only the medium and high participation groups have significant effects;whether they can participate in the management and protection of the two modes can achieve ecological effects,but the effect of participating in the management and protection group is higher.From the perspective of non-agricultural employment effects,only the fallow of all cultivated land can effectively increase the probability of non-agricultural employment of farmers,and only the fallow of more than half of the family’s cultivated land can effectively increase the intensity of non-agricultural employment and income;fallow mainly promotes pure farmers and non-agricultural I households’ employment,and has no significant promotion effect on the II farmers;fallow significantly increases the non-agricultural employment intensity and income of rural households in the high-age group of labor,and has no effect on the low-age group,and the effect of non-agricultural employment in the high education group is significantly higher than low education group.From the perspective of income increase effect,the effect of policy income increase is only significant when the proportion of fallow farming is higher than 50%of the rural households,and with the increase of participation,it shows an inverted “U”relationship;the income increase effect of the high compensation standard is greater than the low compensation standard;the revenue increase effect of chance of management and protection is higher than the unmanaged opportunity.From the perspective of happiness effect,the happiness of farmers increases with the increase in the degree of farmland fallow participation.The group with high compensation standards is obviously happier than the group with low compensation standards,and those with management and protection opportunities are happier than those without management and protection opportunities.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions from the perspectives of coping with the existing problems in the implementation of fallow farmland,promoting the ecological effects of fallow farmland,promoting the nonagricultural transfer and employment of fallow farmers,improving the income status of fallow farmers,and enhancing the sense of happiness of fallow farmers. |