Research On The Evaluation And Optimization Of Policies On Fallow Of Cultivated Land(PFCL)

Evaluating the policies on fallow of cultivated land(PFCL)is the main basis for its sustainable and efficient development,which is also one of the important contents for constructing the fundamental framework of cultivated land fallow system.This study focused on the main line of evaluating of PFCL based on the current research and actural development of PFCL.Firstly,the Multiple Streams Approach(MSA)was used to describe the formation process of PFCL,and the Content Analysis Method was used to explore the selection and application of policy tools of cultivated fallow.On this basis,the policy-evaluating framework,proposed by Fisher,was applied to the evaluation of PFCL,following the evaluation concept of the integration of fact and value.According this framework,the evaluation of PFCL were divided into four aspects,namely,project verification,scenario confirmation,social argumentation and social choice.Evaluation index system for PFCL was constructed based on the four aspects,and the System Dynamics(SD)was used to construct the quantified model for evaluation of PFCL after comparing and analyzing the commonly used methods for quantifying policy evaluation.Finally,this study made a comprehensive evaluation and scenario simulation of the policies on fallow of heavy metal-contaminated cultivated land based on the data of Hunan Province,and proposed specific optimization paths and strategies for PFCL.The main conclusions of this study were as follows.(1)Policy agenda of cultivated land fallow is the consequence of confluence of problem stream,policy stream and politics stream,which was promoted by policy entrepreneurs when the policy window opens.This study systematically analyzed the agenda setting mechanism of PFCL based on the Multiple Streams Approach.The results showed that the severe degradation of cultivated land,the large stock of grain reserves,the transformation of social events and the reflection on current related policies resulted in the problem stream.The policy stream was composed of policy suggestions or proposals from experts and scholars in different fields,political bureaucrats,and deputies to National People's Congress(NPS).The development concept of ecological civilization from the Party and government shaped the politics stream.The three streams have been fully interactived at the key time of the Fifth Plenum of the 18 th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.With the help of experts and scholars,members of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference(CPPCC)and other policy enterprisers,the three streams convergenced successfully,thus the arrangement of policy agenda of cultivated land fallow was made and finished.(2)Policy tool is an effective means to analyze the development status of policies on fallow of cultivated land.Based on the Policy Tool Theory proposed by Rothell and Zegveld,the basic policy tools involved in the policies on fallow of cultivated land were divided into three types in this study,namely,environmental,supply-driven and demand-driven,which was used as the X dimension for PFCL.Meanwhile,the Y dimension of PFCL was established according to Service Chain Theory(SCT),which including resource donation,resource delivery,service provision and service supervision.On the basis of the two-dimensional analysis framework of the PFCL,this study selected the “Pilot Scheme of Exploring Crop Rotation and Fallow System of Cultivated Land” as the analysis sample,and reveals the differences in the number and combination structure of the policy tools of cultivated land fallow by Content Analysis Method.This can also reflect the implementation status of the PFCL to some extent.(3)The evaluation of PFCL is the combination of the factual dimension and the value dimension,which linked by the policy goals.This study pointed that systematic evaluation of PFCL should include both the factual and value dimension,after exploring the relationship between "fact" and "value" in the history of western philosophy and the policy evaluation paradigm in the modern sense.Those two dimensions are indispensable,which constitute a relatively complete evaluation framework for PFCL.The evaluation of the PFCL in the factual dimension focused on the actual impact of policy operation,while the evaluation in the value dimension usually include evaluation of the policy itself and the means,methods adopted in policy implementation.(4)The evaluation of PFCL under the dual constraints of fact and value can be divided into project verification,scenario confirmation,social argumentation and social choice.The evaluation model of PFCL with “two sequences and four forms” was constructed in this study,which was based on the evaluation concept of public policy that proposed by Professor Fisher.The first sequence's evaluation,which refers to the evaluation in the fact dimension,was mainly composed of project verification and scenario confirmation.It focused on the achievement of the PFCL and the correlation with the problem scenario.The second sequence's evaluation,including social argumentation and social choice,has shifted to a larger social system,which emphasizing the social impact and social value of PFCL.This study has determined the metrics of different forms and formed a complete evaluation index system of PFCL after systematically expounding the basic connotation of the project verification,scenario confirmation,social argumentation and social choice in PFCL.(5)System Dynamics can provide technical support for quantitative evaluation of PFCL.Considering the complex system characteristics of PFCL,this study has applied the modeling thought of System Dynamics into the evaluation of PFCL after comparing the methods commonly used for policy evaluation including Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),Fuzzy Mathematics Analysis(FMA),Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA),and System Dynamics and so on.This study decomposed the system of the PFCL into four subsystems: project verification,scenario confirmation,social argumentation and social choice,and clarified the basic structure and causality of each subsystems.Then the System Dynamics Model for the evaluation of PFCL was constructed based on the Entropy Theory and previous analysis.(6)The PFCL is in good condition,and reasonable optimization should be carried out in terms of policy formulation process,policy implementation process and policy evaluation process when the PFCL is perfected and redesigned in the future,which can achieved the sustainable development of the PFCL.Based on the data collected in Hunan Province,empirical evaluation and scenario simulation of the PFCL were conducted by the System Dynamics Model in this study.The results showed that the system of PFCL in Hunan Province has gradually changed from an early disorder to an orderly state in terms of function or spatial-temporal scale,and the current PFCL is conducive to the overall development of society.Meanwhile,in order to enhance the sustainability of PFCL,this study proposed several optimization paths based on the results of scenario simulation under different optimization schemes and the research themes.Specifically,we should pay attention to the optimization of policy formulation process,policy implementation process and policy evaluation process when designing the follow-up policy of cultivated land fallow in the future,and put forward several strategies for each optimization paths.