| Regional coordinated development is an eternal theme of global concern and one of China's five development concepts.In September 2019 and February 2021,the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the Outline of Building a Transport Power and the Outline of the National Comprehensive Three-dimensional Transport Network planning,both of which clearly pushed the integrated development of transport and tourism to a new height.The tourism industry in Yangtze river delta is in the rapid growth phase shift towards high quality,intensive development,and the spatial pattern of high-speed transportation advantages which composed of high-speed railways,civil aviation transportation and highway is constantly being reconstructed,its technical advantages such as efficiency,convenience,comfort,security and trasport organization form that high speed,large capacity and transitization,will inevitably have important impact to the flow path of urban tourism elements flow and allocative efficiency.Under the background of the new era of the transportation strategy and the transformation of China's tourism industry from extensive growth to high-quality tourism development,strengthen the empirical research and academic cognition of the coupling and coordination of high-speed transportation and tourism development is not only the traffic geography and tourism geography's key topics to be explored,It is also a realistic demand for the high-quality and coordinated development of the "traffic and travel" industry and serving the country's major development strategies,and a vivid practice of building a new development pattern of domestic and international double cycles that promote each other.This paper takes the high-quality development of "transportation and tourism integration" as the entry point,takes 41 cities in the typical region: Yangtze River Delta as the research sample,and takes "the coupling coordination of high speed traffic superiority and tourism intensity" as the research object.Follow the "high speed traffic superiority,tourism intensity and construct the coupling coordination theoretical model of transportation and tourism?comprehensive score evaluation of traffic and travel ? space-time dynamic relationship validation ? grasping the spatio-temporal evolution law of the coupling coordination degree and trend prediction simulation ?revealing the coupling coordination degree of temporal and spatial evolution impact mechanism ? put forward the coupling coordination optimization path and policy suggestions" as the research main line.And then integrating multiple method models of " multiple comprehensive evaluation model,coupling coordination model,Arc GIS spatial analysis technology,mathematical statistical analysis technology,and spatial econometrics model".On the basis of verifying the dynamic spatio-temporal relationship between transport and tourism,this paper systematically explores the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of transport and travel coupling coordination degree in the Yangtze River Delta region,and then predicts its future development trend,clarifies the multiple driving mechanisms of the spatio-temporal differentiation of high speed traffic superiority and tourism intensity coupling coordination,and put forward the optimization strategies under the context of transport and travel coupling coordination in the Yangtze River Delta region.In this study,an evaluation model of high speed traffic superiority and tourism intensity is constructed based on multiple heterogeneous data,which overcomes the shotcomings of traditional data types in static representation and the one-sidedness and isolation of measuring the comprehensive development level of the two only from a single perspective.Multi-scale and multi-perspective overall grasp of the spatio-temporal evolution law of the coupling coordination degree of high speed traffic superiority and tourism intensity is realized.Grey prediction GM(1,1)model was used to predict and simulate the future development level of coupling coordination degree.Finally,a multivariate method model system was introduced to reveal the multivariate influence mechanism of the spatio-temporal evolution of the coupling coordination degree.The results show that:(1)The high speed traffic superiority includes five dimensions: line size,station facilities,transportation equipment,supply and demand relationship and transfer convenience;Tourism intensity is an orderly,integrated and optimized open cycle system composed of tourism supply intensity,tourism demand intensity and tourism innovation efficiency.During the study period,both high speed traffic superiority and tourism intensity all tend to rise in the Yangtze river delta region,and high speed traffic superiority pattern present "east high west low,high middle and low north and south wing" space differentiation pattern,The“corridor effect”of high-speed traffic in the area is significant,with spatial continuity,cohesion and three-dimensional development characteristics;The overall pattern of tourism intensity shows a spatial trend of "one super and many strong,and local aggregation".(2)The spatial correlation between the superiority degree of high-speed transportation and tourism intensity in the Yangtze River Delta region is gradually strengthened.The decoupling relationship between the two types is mainly negative decoupling and weak decoupling.The driving effect of high-speed transportation construction on tourism intensity shows an increasing trend,but with the characteristics of fluctuation.There is a significant two-way causality between the expressway superiority degree and the tourism intensity.When the tourism intensity is impacted by the expressway superiority degree,its impulse response degree curve shows a changing trend of "decreasing first and then rising",which shows the time lag of the development effect of expressway tourism.(3)During the study period,the coupling coordination degree of high speed traffic superiority and tourism intensity in Yangtze river delta showed a trend of increasing,the degree of coupling coordination between urban gap is narrowing,high speed traffic superiority and tourism intensity of coupling coordination degree overall trends present "High in the east and low in the west,high in the middle and low in the north and south wings" space differentiation characteristics.There is a significant spatial dependence and spillover effect between the superiority degree of expressway and the coupling coordination degree of tourism intensity.Moreover,the center of gravity of expressway presents an evolution trajectory of "retreating east and advancing west",and its spatial direction inclines to the northwest to southeast,which is consistent with the trend of most expressway traffic axes.High speed traffic superiority and tourism intensity of coupling coordination degree has the relative stability of the local spatial structure,less volatility in the direction of spatial dependence,and has relatively high stability,it also has strong spatial integration on the spatial pattern of evolution,and the coupling coordination degree of the local spatial correlation type has shifted to a "high-high" positive synergetic growth model.The prediction and simulation results show that the trend of coupling coordination degree of high speed traffic superiority and tourism intensity of 41 cities will develop more and more clearly in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2019 to 2030,and the coupling coordination level of each city will be significantly improved,which will shift from the low level to the next level or jump to the higher level.(4)Internal influence mechanism: there is a significant difference between the internal driving forces of the coupling coordination degree of high speed traffic superiority and tourism intensity in the Yangtze River Delta region,and high-speed railway plays a strong positive driving effect on the improvement of the coupling coordination degree;On the whole,the influence intensity of expressway and civil aviation on the coupling coordination degree decreases with the increase of the quantile,while the influence intensity of high-speed railway,tourism supply and tourism innovation efficiency on the coupling coordination degree increases with the increase of the quantile,and the influence effect of tourism demand on the coupling coordination degree is relatively stable.In terms of interaction mechanism: when the expressway traffic combination type of tourism destination is in the multi-symbiosis mode or when the tourism supply,tourism demand and tourism innovation efficiency interact,it can exert the maximum effect on the coupling coordination degree.In terms of external influence mechanism: natural geographical factors,human factors and government policy control factors all play a driving effect on the formation of the coupling coordination pattern of expressway superiority degree and tourism intensity in the Yangtze River Delta region.Among them,the primary factors of government policy regulation and human factors play a leading role,and external connection degree,human capital and financial development level are the "bottleneck" problems that need to be broken in the improvement of the coordination degree of transport and tourism coupling in the Yangtze River Delta region.Finally,based on the empirical analysis conclusion and the actual situation of high-speed transportation construction and tourism development in the Yangtze River Delta region,the optimization path and improvement strategy of the coupled coordination between the transportation and tourism are proposed from the perspective of "high-speed transportation system construction,tourism high-quality development,and integration and interaction of transportation and tourism" in the Yangtze River Delta region. |
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