| China is facing the double pressure of aging and low birth-rate,and the parents of the first only-children generation have also entered or are about to enter the old age,how the elderly spend their last years lies in the concern of our country over the years.The Decision of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19 th CPC Central Committee proposes to proactively respond to the aging of the population and speed up the construction of an old-age service system integrating community institutions and medical health care.This paper studies the implications of the children number on the living arrangements of urban elderly in the context of aging and low fertility,and whether the existing community old-age support could affect or regulate the living arrangements of the aged.Taking the living arrangement as the carrier,it discusses the dilemma for the present seniors,and predicts the demands and difficulties of the elderly in the onlychild family in the future.Specifically,this paper constructs an analytical framework to theoretically analyze how the current number of children affects the living arrangements of the elderly,whether the elderly support in community takes into account the feasibility,and whether unleash the existing living arrangements constraints can help solve the unbalanced supply and demand structure in pension service.In this way,the impact mechanism of the number of children on the urban elderly residential arrangements is verified from an empirical point of view.employing the CLHLS 2008?2011?2014 panel data and stata software to construct a panel binomial fixed effect model and analyze the impact of children population on the elderly residential arrangements as well as whether community pension support regulates the elderly living arrangements.CLHLS 2014 cross-sectional data is applied to calculate whether the mediating effect of child support on residential arrangements of the elderly is significant with stata and R software.Finally,based on the analysis of the existing embedded pension implementation cases,summarize findings and put forward suggested countermeasures.This study is mainly concluded as follows.First,the number of children has a notable implication on whether the urban elderly choose to live in empty-nest mode.Among them,the elderly with only child would prefer to be empty-nested,while the elderly with several children are the opposite.In addition,age,years of education,widowhood,daily movement ability pose a significant impact on the elderly in choosing empty-nest living mode.The seniors of older age,being widowed,or capable of normal daily movement tend to live alone.Second,the number of children has a significant impact on whether the elderly choose the multi-generation living mode.the elderly with only child are is less inclined to live in multi-generation mode,while the elderly with several children have higher probability in multi-generation living.Widowhood and daily activity capacity also influence remarkably on multi-generation residence mode,widowed elderly people are more likely to this way,whereas older people with normal movement capabilities are less likely to choose multi-generational pattern.Third,the impact of only-child and multi-child on the choice of living with others is not obvious.Moreover,the daily movement abilities has a notable implication on the pattern of living with others.Older persons who bear normal movement ability requiring no care is less prone to choose to live with others.Fourth,the fixed effect model indicated that the number of children has no significant effect on the elderly living in pension institutions,while the effect of children number on the elderly living in pension institutions under the random effect model is prominent.The elderly with only child is more likely to live in pension institutions than older persons with multiple children.Age and community support for old-age care pose an obvious impact on living arrangements in pension institutions.The older the elderly,the more likely they live in pension institutions,where pension support is an crucial factor for the elderly.Fifth,for the widowed elderly,compared with the multi-generation living model,the number of children has no significant impact on the living arrangements of the elderly,and the age and daily activity ability markedly affect the empty-nest living model.The older the elderly,the less likely they choose to live alone,and older people with normal movement ability are more probable to choose empty-nest residence.The influence of daily activity ability on living with others showed a significant negative effect,put is another way,the widowed elderly with normal daily activity ability are less likely to choose to live with others.The age of the widowed elderly,whether there is old-age support in the community where they live,and cognitive ability have an evident impact on the living choice in pension institutions.The older the widowed,the more likely they are to choose to live in an old-age institution;the pension support provided by the old-age institution is also a decisive factor for the widowed elderly to live in a pension institution;the widowed elderly with cognitive impairment are more likely to choose to live in an old-age institutionSixth,compared with the multi-generation mode of residence,the influence of children number of the elderly with daily movement problems has not significant impact on living patterns.The impact of other indicators on the living arrangements of older persons with disabilities in daily activities is also insignificant.Seventh,for the elderly with normal cognition,the number of children is closely related to the empty-nest living choice in comparison with the multi-generation living mode,and the elderly with normal cognition are more prone to choose the empty-nest mode,whereas the elderly with several children shows the contrary tendency.In addition,widowhood and daily activity ability have a significant effect on the elderly with normal cognitive ability to choose empty-nest mode.The elderly with normal daily activity ability are more likely to this pattern.Whether the community provides old-age service has a significant effect on whether the cognitively normal elderly choose to live with others.If the community offering old-age care,the elderly with normal cognition are less likely to choose to live with others.Age has a significant influence on whether the elderly with normal cognition choose to live in the pension institution,the older the elderly with normal awareness are prone to pension institutionsEighth,with the multi-generation residence mode as the reference group,offspring's sick care and financial support on the elderly with only child for emptynested mode and nursing home shows significance in the mediating effect;mental comfort on the multi-child elderly and empty-nested mode is significant in mediating effect,and sick care for multi-child elderly in empty-nested mode and living with others is significant in the mediating effect.Ninth,the current community old-age service support can not play a role in regulating the number of children and the elderly living arrangementsBased on the above discussion,the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward as follows.First,the solution for community pension services is to break through the boundaries of homes,communities and institutions,so that all of which can fully play their roles.Community can create a pension service system for the "base",from the perspective of supply-side structural reform,like supermarket chains,to build a community as the "base" in pension service system.The fragmented stock of assets can be gathered at the community level to sort,integrate and coordinate.All kinds of institutions can "simplify" to be "embedded" in community pension services.With the booming of digital city and the intelligent support,the intelligent construction of community old-age service cannot be single-handed and self-made system,or present "extracorporeal circulation",which must be included in the intelligent process of digital city construction.Second,the old-age service should be mainly undertaken by the community.At present,the common community service in demand are: meals,cleaning,bath,medical care,going out,health guidance,rehabilitation care,agency and so on.These demands can be deconstructed into projects,adhering to the objective of "low-end security,middle-end supply,high-end market" in socialization and industrialization reform.The approach is: the government provides basic security and guarantee services,while the market specifically address personalized needs.There are two potential findings in this paper.First,when establishing the analytical framework,the elderly as the decisionmaking subject of the residential arrangement is taken into account,and the cognitive ability of the elderly is calculated by the MMSE scale in the questionnaire,assuming that the living choice is largely determined by the children in case of the elderly have cognitive impairment.Second,the elderly are divided into only-child and multi-child in terms of children number,and the pension dilemma of the elderly with only child is analyzed to predict the future one-child parents' pension problems.This study has the following deficiencies.First,in the prediction of the future pension approach for one-child parents is only limited to analysis and outlook,yet lacking of systematical projection,which calls for further study.Second,due to insufficient data in the analysis of embedded pension,it doesn't carry out data analysis with only empirical analysis after data collection. |
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