Research On The Regional Economic Growth Effect Of China's Population Aging

Population aging is a compound process accompanied by socio-economic development and structural changes.Its effect on regional economic growth is an extremely complex process involving multiple levels,multiple scales and multiple approaches.It has the characteristics of intermediary,dynamic,open,spatial and feedback.Since the 1970 s,under the dual effects of socio-economic development and family planning policies,China's population dependency ratio has begun to decline,and the size and proportion of the working-age population have continued to rise,forming a population age structure that is beneficial to economic growth,and gradually transformed into a demographic dividend that has promoted China's rapid economic growth since the reform and opening up.With the continuous advancement of demographic transition,the current Chinese population has entered a period of increasing dependency ratios and an aging population.It is facing the risks of rising labor costs,getting old before getting rich,escalating conflicts between urban and rural relations,and prominent contradictions between supply and demand of elderly care resources,which have a profound impact on the economic growth of some regions.In this context,taking the regional differences in population aging and urban-rural differentiation formed by the structural migration of population as the main entry point,studying the effect of China's population aging on regional economic growth has important theoretical and practical significance.The thesis takes the provincial administrative unit as the research object,based on the theory of population economy,the theory of regional economic growth and other related theories.It systematically studied the regional economic growth effects of China's population aging,and revealed the characteristics and existing problems of the effects of population aging on regional economic growth.Using quantitative analysis methods such as mediating effect analysis,non-parametric estimation,threshold effect regression model,spatial econometric model,etc.,to test the threshold effect and spatial spillover effect of China's population aging on regional economic growth,and clarified the role path and mechanism of population aging affecting regional economic growth.The research got the following basic conclusions:(1)The population aging in China as a whole is in a state of accelerated development,showing obvious spatial heterogeneity and the characteristics of "urban and rural inversion".This is directly related to the large-scale age-selective and directional population migration,and the regional development imbalance formed by differences in regional economic development levels and urban-rural development differences is the main driving force for this large-scale structural migration of population.Regional differences in population aging will further widen the differences in regional economic development and form a series of regional economic development and social problems.(2)The "acceleration(positive effect)" and "deceleration(negative effect)" effects of China's population aging on regional economic growth coexist.The population aging has a negative impact on the supply of labor and the level of consumption of residents,and has a "deceleration effect" on regional economic growth.This deceleration effect is strengthened with the intensification of the population aging,and in the long run it will have an increasingly serious negative impact on regional economic growth.At the same time,the population aging has a positive impact on the level of household savings,human capital,technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading,and has an "acceleration effect" on regional economic growth,but this "acceleration effect" is short-term and specific.(3)China's population aging has threshold effects and spatial spillover effects on regional economic growth.One is that the impact of population aging on regional economic growth has threshold effect characteristics,and the relationship between the two shows a dynamic change process,that is,as the population aging coefficient increases and exceeds a certain threshold,its positive impact on regional economic growth decreases.Second,regional economic growth is not spatially independent,but has obvious spatial correlation and spatial dependence,which in turn leads to significant spatial spillover effects of the impact of population aging on regional economic growth,that is,population aging affects the economic growth of the region while also affecting the economic growth of surrounding regions.(4)The regional economic growth effects of China's population aging are significantly different.A region with a more serious population aging has a greater decline in its positive impact on regional economic growth,and the more likely it is to produce a negative spatial spillover effect.That is to say,the downward trend in eastern,central and northeast China where the level of population aging is relatively high,the negative spillover effect is significant,especially in northeast China.The population aging in western China is still in the accelerated stage of positive impact on regional economic growth,and there is a significant positive spatial spillover effect.The decline in the positive impact of population aging in rural areas on regional economic growth is more pronounced than in urban areas,and the negative spatial spillover effect is stronger.(5)The urban-rural gap in China's population aging has a positive feedback effect on the dual economic structure of urban and rural areas.The imbalance in the development of urban and rural areas has caused the surplus rural labor to continuously shift to urban areas.On the one hand,it slows down the aging of urban areas and provides sufficient labor and human capital for economic growth in urban areas."Inversion" is becoming more and more significant,which in turn reduces the supply of rural labor and the stock of human capital,has a "deceleration effect" on rural economic growth,and further expands the gap between urban and rural economic development.In this process,a positive feedback effect is formed between the urban-rural difference of population aging and the imbalance of urban-rural development.Based on the above research conclusions,relevant policy recommendations are put forward: The first is to adjust labor supply and consumption levels to alleviate the "deceleration effect" of aging;the second is to increase investment in science and education and support the aging industry to stabilize the "accelerating effect" of aging ";the third is to build a good platform for talent cooperation to stimulate the "positive spatial spillover" of aging;the fourth is to implement differentiated population and economic policies to promote the coordinated development of the regional economy;the fifth is to improve the level of rural livelihood security and promote balanced development between urban and rural areas.