A Spatial Econometric Analysis Of The Impact Of China's Population Aging On Economic Growth

The aging of the population is one of the major problems facing China's current economic growth and social development.In recent years,the central government has continuously introduced relevant policies to deal with the problem of population aging.General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: "Efforts to tap the vitality and opportunities brought about by the aging of the population to the development of the country." Declining fertility,prolonging life expectancy,raising old-age dependency ratios,and the macroeconomic impact of an aging population should not be underestimated.Firstly,the paper analyzes the impact of aging economic growth by means of the extended Soro model.Three main control variables of population structure variables,human capital variables and urbanization levels are added to the model.On this basis,the per capita capital and per capita output and per capita output growth rate on the long path of balance are deduced,and the mathematical relationship between variables is obtained,and the mathematical model is constructed.Secondly,it sorts out the mechanism of the impact of population aging on economic growth.Due to China's special urban-rural dual structure,it is necessary to analyze the impact of aging on economic growth from a national macro perspective,a national town perspective,and a national rural perspective.Finally,the paper examines the impact of three angles of aging on economic growth and its spillover effects through spatial measurement.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)China's economic growth,urban residents' income and rural residents' income all have significant spatial spillover effects,and the level of economic growth among regions has a synergistic effect.Under the spatial fixed effect of the spatial Dubin model(SDM),the regression coefficients were 0.450,0.603 and 0.409,respectively,both of which were highly significant.(2)Aging at the national level is not significant for economic growth,but aging has a positive spillover effect on economic growth.The aging of cities and towns hasno obvious impact on the income level of urban residents.The aging of urban areas in neighboring areas has a positive spillover effect on the income of urban residents in the region.Rural aging has little effect on the income level of rural residents.The rural aging in neighboring areas has no obvious effect on the income spillover of rural residents in the region.(3)Increasing the stock of human capital at the national level has a significant role in promoting economic growth in the region and has a positive spillover effect on economic growth in neighboring regions.Increasing the stock of human capital in cities has a positive effect on increasing the income of urban residents,but the spatial spillover effect of urban human capital stocks is not obvious.Increasing the stock of rural human capital has a positive effect on increasing the income of rural residents,but the spatial spillover effect of rural human capital stock is not obvious.(4)Narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas can increase the level of economic growth.At present,the income gap between urban and rural areas in China is too large,so there have been a series of problems that need to be adjusted in the income distribution process.(5)At the national level,the impact of urbanization on economic growth is positive,but the level of urbanization in neighboring regions may have a slight negative impact on economic growth in the region.The impact of urbanization on the income of urban residents and the income of rural residents is positive,but the level of urbanization in neighboring areas has a slight negative spillover effect on economic growth in the region.However,the level of urbanization in neighboring areas has little effect on the income of rural residents in the region.(6)Improving the medical level of the city has a positive effect on increasing the income of urban residents,but the spatial spillover effect of urban medical level is not obvious.Raising the level of rural medical care has a positive effect on increasing the income of rural residents,and the spatial spillover effect of rural medical care is obvious.The improvement of the medical environment in neighboring areas will play a positive role in the income level of rural residents in the region.Therefore,the paper puts forward the following suggestions:(1)Increasing the urbanization rate can offset the decline in labor force participation rate caused bypopulation aging.(2)Increasing the stock of human capital can give play to the positive impact of population aging on economic growth.(3)Actively respond to aging,urban elderly need more psychological care and take the responsibility of taking care of grandchildren.Rural elderly need to raise their income levels and improve medical and health conditions.