| Population is the core element of economic growth,which has a wide and far-reaching impact on economic growth.The change of the age structure of population leads to the problem of population aging.The aging of population is an inevitable phenomenon in the process of population and social development,and there is an inevitable internal relationship between it and regional economic development.Since the 1980 s,Chinese scholars began to pay attention to the issues related to population aging and regional economic growth.On the basis of previous studies,this thesis aims to explore the mechanism of population aging on economic growth,objectively evaluate the direct,indirect and comprehensive effects of population aging on regional economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,and try to scientifically and accurately measure the impact of population aging on regional economic growth.First of all,this thesis systematically combs the relevant literature about population aging and economic growth at home and abroad,and expounds the relevant theories of population aging and economic growth.Secondly,based on the classic Solow model,this thesis puts the factors of population aging into the Solow model and analyzes the economic effect and action path of population aging on economic growth are analyzed theoretically through the expanded Solow model.It is found that population aging affects economic growth through two paths:actual investment and flat investment.In different stages of population development,there are differences in the effect of population aging on actual investment and flat investment.Different levels of population aging will have different effects on economic growth,and there are positive and negative effects of population aging on economic growth.Thirdly,after analyzing the current situation of population aging in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,it shows that the birth rate is low,the mortality rate is low,the natural growth rate is low,the proportion of the elderly population is serious,and the regional difference of population aging is large.Based on the grey system theory,this thesis uses the grey prediction model to predict the population aging degree of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in the future.It is found that the population aging degree of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is deepening year by year,the population aging degree of Hebei Province is growing fastest,and the aging degree has developed from being behind Beijing and Tianjin to being ahead of Beijing and Tianjin.Through the establishment of Tapio decoupling model,this thesis examines the decoupling state of regional economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in three phases.The results show that the relationship between the aging population and economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei shows the evolution of relative decoupling,absolute decoupling and negative decoupling.Finally,based on the spatial correlation analysis of the regional economy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,it is found that the agglomeration effect of economic growth in Beijing and Tianjin is obvious.There is a certain spatial negative correlation between the economic growth level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,and the spatial correlation mode is dominated by "high-low" and "low high" agglomeration.The areas with high economic development level are surrounded by the areas with low economic development level and the areas with low economic development level are surrounded by the areas with high economic development level.Based on the empirical test of spatial durbin model,it is concluded that there is a Kuznets inverted U-shaped curve between population aging and economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.In the short term,population aging will have a positive impact on the economic growth of the region and its neighboring areas,but the continuous deepening of population aging will have a negative impact on the economic growth of the region,and have a negative spatial spillover effect on the neighboring areas.In order to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the research results,this thesis also tests the dual robustness of the empirical model by replacing the core explanatory variables and examining the economic effects of population aging in different periods.In addition,combined with the above research,this thesis also gives targeted policy recommendations,and further prospects for the follow-up research. |
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