The Research Of The Spatial-Temporal Patterns Of Population Aging In Hubei Province

With the extension of the life expectancy of the population,the death rate and birth rate continue to decline.PopuIation aging in the China has entered a period of rapid development.Hubei province,as the largest province in the middle of China,has entered aging society for ten years and its level and developing speed of aging are all higher than the average of nation.Firstly,based on the fourth,fifth,and sixth census data,this paper used the aging rate as an indicator to explore the spatial-temporal pattern and spatial autocorrelation of Hubei province from 1990 to 2015.Second,based on the theoretical hypotheses,an media model was established through AMOS Graphics software to explore the factors what affects population aging,and to verify the exist of direct and indirect effects in the complex and diverse influence factors of population aging.Thirdly,through the EVIEWS software,we use the method of weighted regression to establish the Douglas production model.Using the old-age dependency ratio,Labor capital investment,and the average years of schooling of population,we explored the effects of aging on economic growth.The study separately explores the impact of aging on economic growth from two major economic regions.Through the above analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions:(1)From 1990 to 2015,the aging degree of Hubei Province has been continuously deepening.And it has generally shows a feature of the spatial-temporal distribution of the aging level:" the west is higher than the east,and the county is higher than the city ";The results of Global Spatial Correlation shows that the spatial aggregation of aging population in Hubei province is significant,but the degree of agglomeration is falling and the differentiation of aging is expanding.The southwestern region centered on Yichang has always been a gathering place for the elderly population and the area centered on Wuhan has become a clustering area with low ageing;(2)Factors that affecting aging are comprehensive,and there are direct effects and indirect effects.Life expectancy,migration rate,and birth rate are endogenous direct factors of aging.Factors such as the medical hygiene,living conditions and educational development have indirect effects on aging as exogenous factors.Overall,the fundamental cause of the aging difference between urban and rural areas depend on the rural-urban migration of population;(3)Through the EVIEWS software,a Douglas production model has been established by using weighted regression,.It verifying how the aging effect on economic growth.The three indicators are old-age dependency ratio,Labor capital investment and the average years of schooling of population.From the perspective of the whole province,aging has increased the burden of social support and has a negative effect on economic growth.At the same time,based on the significant regional economic differences in Hubei Province,"two circles",the effects of aging under the different economic conditions shows that the impact of aging on the economic growth is not yet significant to the Wuhan city circle.Because of the demographic dividend has not disappeared in the measurement period.However,its economic development is facing double pressures of low-level growth and the burden of aging to the Western of Hubei province.Finally,this paper proposes corresponding policy recommendations based on the results.