Research On The Effect Of Intermediate Goods Trade Liberalization On China's Emplopment Skill Structure

Since China's accession to WTO(World Trade Organization),China's trade liberalization has accelerated significantly,and its import and export trade has grown rapidly.In this process,the development of intermediate import trade is particularly rapid.According to the data sets provided by UN COMTRADE,from China's accession to the WTO to 2018,the average volume of China's imports of intermediate goods accounted for 74.17%of the total imports of manufacturing industry in the same period,and the proportion of intermediate goods was relatively stable.This shows that the import of intermediate goods has become the most important type of import products in China,The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly points out that we should develop a higher-level open economy.Under such a background,it can be expected that the scale and types of intermediate imports will continue to increase in the future for a long time in China.Based on this,the research on the impact of intermediate imports on China's economy has become a hot issue in the academic field.On the other hand,at present,China has already transited to the stage of high-quality development.The economic development is influenced by resource and environment constraints,labor and raw material costs rising.Many enterprises are in the "throes" period of development mode transformation,which will inevitably have an impact on China's labor employment skill structure:In the traditional sense,the price advantage of products maintained by a large number of low skilled and cheap labor has basically disappeared.The production and export of high value-added and high-quality products are the direction of many enterprises in the future.And the production of high value-added and high-quality products will naturally produce a large demand for skilled labor.In this case,how to quickly improve the structure of employment skills has become the key to solve the above problems.Based on the above two aspects of the basic national conditions,this article combines the liberalization of intermediate goods trade with the employment structure of China's labor force,and tries to explore the impact of the liberalization of intermediate goods import on the employment structure of China.The main question to be solved of this article is as follows:how does the liberalization of intermediate goods trade affect the employment structure of China?What are the channels and the mechanism of its effect?Will there be any differences in industries,regions and enterprise ownership in the shock of intermediate trade liberalization on China's employment structure?How should we deal with the shock of intermediate trade liberalization on China's employment skill structure.This article argues that the discussion and the answer to the above questions would not only enrich the existing research on employment structure and trade liberalization of intermediate goods at the theoretical level,but also have important guiding significance and reference value for the optimization of employment skill structure and the adjustment of policies related to the import of intermediate goods at the practical level.This article takes the impact of intermediate trade liberalization on China's employment skill structure as the topic,trying to study the impact of intermediate trade liberalization on China's employment skill structure from the theoretical and empirical levels,focusing on the impact mechanism of intermediate trade liberalization on the employment skill structure in the theoretical level,and focusing on the direction and impact of intermediate trade liberalization on China's employment skill structure in the empirical level and its heterogeneity.This article consists of seven parts.The first chapter is the part of introduction,which mainly introduces the writing background and research significance,the main research content,research methods,research framework and main structure,innovation points and shortcomings.The second chapter is literature review,which is divided into two sections to systemically sort out two categories of literature closely related to this article,one part is the related research on intermediate goods trade,the other one is the related research on employment.Through the systematic combing of the existing related literature,the contribution and deficiency of the existing literature are extracted.The third chapter is the theoretical analysis of the impact of intermediate goods trade liberalization on the employment structure.In this part,this article focuses on two aspects:the factor substitution effect and the technology upgrading effect to explore the mechanism of intermediate goods trade liberalization on the employment structure.The fourth chapter focuses on the development process of China's intermediate goods import and the development of China's employment structure.Through the collection,processing and statistical analysis of the data related to the intermediate goods import and China's employment structure,it describes the relevant status and characteristics of the intermediate goods import and employment structure,so as to provide data and data basis for the empirical analysis of the following.The fifth and sixth parts are the empirical parts of this article.The fifth chapter focuses on benchmark regression,heterogeneity analysis and endogenous treatment,while the sixth chapter focuses on the investigation of the mechanism of action.In these two chapters,we will use the latest micro level data to test the basic assumptions of the theoretical analysis in chapter three,so as to get the empirical results consistent with the theoretical analysis.It is a good preparation for the proposal of policy.The last part of this article is the research conclusion and policy implication.Firstly,it makes a systematic summary of the main conclusions of the theoretical analysis and empirical test of this article.On this basis,based on the basic situation of China's intermediate goods import and current labor employment,it puts forward targeted policy recommendations.On the theoretical level,this article systematically discusses the mechanism of intermediary trade liberalization on the employment skill structure,and focuses on the impact mechanism of intermediary trade liberalization on the employment skill structure from the perspective of factor substitution effect,technology upgrading effect,competition strengthening effect and quality upgrading effect.On the empirical level,based on the combined data of China's industrial enterprise database and customs database from 1998 to 2013,this article examines the impact of the drop of intermediate goods tariff on China's employment skill structure,and finds that:from the perspective of the whole sample,the liberalization of intermediate goods trade significantly promotes the improvement of China's manufacturing employment skill structure;from the perspective of the sub-sample,the liberalization of intermediate goods trade has a significant impact on China's employment skill structure There are significant differences in industries,ownership,sources of intermediate goods and human capital.In other words,under different industries,enterprises with different ownership,sources of intermediate goods and different levels of human capital in China's manufacturing industry,the impact of intermediate goods trade liberalization on China's employment skill structure is different.The above conclusions are still valid after considering endogenetic effect.In addition,this article also investigates the mechanism of the intermediate goods trade liberalization on the employment skill structure,and the empirical results verify that there are four intermediary effects:factor substitution effect,technology upgrading effect,competition strengthening effect and quality upgrading effect.Furthermore,this article takes China's accession to the World Trade Organization as a quasi-natural experiment and uses the difference-in-difference(DID)method to conduct an investigation.The following research shows that since China's accession to the WTO,the sharp drop in import tariffs on intermediate goods has significantly improved the employment skill structure of China's manufacturing industry.From the perspective of innovation,this article has three main innovations:firstly,based on the background of trade liberalization and the fact that a large number of intermediate goods have been imported into China in recent years,this article studies the optimization of China's employment structure from a new perspective of intermediate goods trade liberalization,so as to expand the research dimension of China's employment structure to a certain extent and enrich the contents on the determinants of employment structure.Secondly,on the mechanism level of the effect of intermediate goods trade liberalization on employment structure,this article attempts to conduct theoretical discussion and empirical investigation from the four main channels of factor substitution effect,technology spillovers effect,quality effect of intermediate goods and import competition effect,and also achieves high consistency between the empirical results and theoretical assumptions,so as to verify the channels and mechanisms of the effect of intermediate goods trade liberalization on employment structure in China.Based on above conclusions,this article proposes some policy recommendations at all levels,and the author expects that this article could provide a reliable theoretical basis for the decision-making of intermediate import&Optimization of employment structure.Thirdly,based on Chen et al.(2017)on the basic measurement ideas of employment skill structure,this article puts forward a new method to measure the employment skill structure within enterprises,so as to investigate the impact of intermediate trade liberalization on the internal employment skill structure of enterprises.