Research On The Effect Of Intelligentization On China's Manufacturing Employment

Every major technological innovation in history has had a profound impact on employment.As a skill-oriented technological progress,the impact of artificial intelligence technology on manufacturing employment cannot be ignored.The paper studies the impact of intelligentization on employment in China's manufacturing industry,constructs an index system to measure the China's manufacturing intelligentization index,and clarifies the mechanism of the impact of intelligentization on manufacturing employment,empirically tests the impact of intelligentization on employment in China's manufacturing industry,and combines the conclusions to come up with policy recommendations for achieving employment creation in China's manufacturing industry under the intelligentization scenario.The paper constructs an intelligentization evaluation index system for the manufacturing industry,uses the entropy method to measure the intelligentization index of the manufacturing industry in China from 2010 to 2016,and evaluates the intelligentization level of the manufacturing industry from time trends and spatial differences.The results show that from2010 to 2016,the intelligentization level of China's manufacturing industry has steadily increased.however,the intelligentization levels of different provinces are quite different.The intelligentization levels of traditional manufacturing provinces such as Guangdong,Jiangsu,and Shandong are high,but the level of intelligentization in some provinces are low such as Ningxia,and Qinghai.From the perspective of the eight comprehensive economic zones,the level of intelligentization in the southeast is generally higher than that in the northwest.The paper analyzes the impact of intelligentization on manufacturing employment from two aspects,total employment and employment structure.It is found that there is a direct substitution effect of “machine substitution for employment” and an indirect substitution effect of reducing labor demand by increasing production efficiency.intelligentization also expands employment demand by extending the industrial chain and improving technological innovation.Therefore,The employment creation effect exists.The intensity comparison of the two effects determines whether the impact of intelligentization on the total employment is increased or decreased.Intelligentization has increased the polarization of the employment structure,which can significantly increase the demand for high-skilled labor and reducemedium-skills.The demand for labor also has a complementary effect on low-skilled labor.Based on the empirical test of the impact of intelligentization on manufacturing employment in China's provincial panel data,the paper constructs a variety of econometric models for regression estimation and robustness testing.The results show that intelligentization has a “U-type” impact on the total employment of manufacturing industry.At present,China's intelligentization has creative effects on manufacturing employment in predominantly.Intelligentization has achieved employment creation through extending the industrial chain and promoting technological innovation,among them,technological innovation plays a major role.Intelligentization can have a polarizing effect on the employment structure,and the demands for high-skilled and low-skilled labor in the labor market increases,while the demand for medium-skilled labor declines.The impacts of intelligentization on total employment and employment structure have regional heterogeneity,which has a significant promotion effect on the total employment in the southern and eastern coastal regions,and has a more pronounced role in employment polarization in the northern and eastern coastal regions.Based on the conclusions of the above studies,the following policy recommendations are proposed.Improving the overall intelligentization level of China's manufacturing industry and give full play to the role of intelligentization employment creation.Enhancing the quality of higher education and vocational education,and expand the supply of highly skilled talents.Improve the content and mode of skills training,and promote the steady and high-quality employment of middle-skilled and low-skilled labor.Strengthen the demonstration leading role of the manufacturing industry in the southeast region,and improve the intelligent policy support in the northwest region.