Rising Wages And The "Quality" And "Quantity" Of Exports By Manufacturing Companies

For a long time,China has occupied a place in the international trade market with its abundant and low-cost labor resources and a low-end factor endowment foreign trade development model.It has completed the primitive accumulation of capital and achieved economic leapfrog development.This development model is international trade.The successful practice of combining theory with China’s actual national conditions has also become a target for other developing countries to learn from.But while achieving results,we should also realize that relying on the comparative advantage of labor is a double-edged sword.With the transformation of the demographic structure,the era of "demographic dividend" is over,and the "Lewis turning point" has arrived(Cai Fang,2010).The rise has become an irreversible trend,which not only brings a heavy burden to enterprises,but also weakens the price advantage of export enterprises,making my country’s export trade face huge challenges.Then,what impact will rising wages have on the "quality" and "quantity" of Chinese enterprises’ exports? What attitude and measures should we adopt in the face of rising wages? In the context of rising wages,how to deal with the impact of changes in comparative advantage on my country’s foreign trade? How to build my country into a real trading power? This is a problem that needs to be considered and solved urgently.This article thoroughly studies the relationship between wages and my country’s export trade,hoping to provide new ideas for rationally responding to rising wages and exploring the road to export trade transformation and upgrading.Therefore,this article will expand and enrich existing research from the following five aspects:First,establish a dual research perspective.Existing literature on the relationship between wages and exports mostly discusses the impact of wages on the “quality” or“quantity” of exports from a single perspective,and lacks a comprehensive study of the impact of rising wages on the “quality” and “quantity” of exports.Failure to establish the relationship between the "quality" of exports and the "quantity" of exports.This article attempts to establish the dual perspectives of the "quality" and "quantity" of exports,as well as the triangular relationship between wages,the "quality" of exports and the "quantity" of exports,comprehensively using mathematical models and logical deductive methods to explore the specific effects of wages on exports.Impact,and the impact of the“quality” of exports on the “quantity” of exports.Second,expand the existing theoretical framework and establish a theoretical model of the impact of wages on enterprise exports.The existing literature on wages and corporate exports mostly focuses on empirical research.This article draws on the analysis framework of Melitz(2003)and Gervais(2015),and builds a theoretical model on this basis to examine the impact of rising wages on corporate exports.The expansion of this paper is mainly to include wages in the cost function,and put wages,productivity in the marginal cost function,and corporate exports in the consumer utility function into the same analysis framework through the conditions of producer equilibrium.Construct a theoretical model to deduce the impact of rising wages on the “quality” and “quantity” of exports.The establishment of this analytical framework expands the general theoretical model,and also enriches and deepens the relevant research in the field of wages and exports.Third,break through most studies on the linear relationship and direct relationship between wages and export quality of enterprises,and theoretically and empirically support the view that wages have nonlinear and indirect effects on export quality of enterprises.Some existing studies have directly explored the relationship between rising wages and exports,but believe that there is a simple linear relationship between the two,and there are disputes over whether the linear relationship is positive or negative.This study incorporates wage factors into the existing enterprise heterogeneity model.The theoretical model and empirical research are combined to verify the non-linear relationship between wages and the export quality of enterprises.Detailed research has been conducted on regional differences and differences in the nature of enterprises.Fourth,the research on the relationship between wages and corporate exports is extended to the causes of factor price increases,and the impact of wages on corporate exports is explored from two aspects: policy and non-policy factors.An important reason for the divergence of research conclusions on the relationship between wages and corporate exports in the existing literature is that the difference between minimum wage and wages is not clearly distinguished.Starting from the divergence of existing research,this study divides the causes of wage increases into two types: policy-based wage increases under the influence of the minimum wage policy and other non-policy-related wage increases,and the two types are matched by double difference and propensity scores.The double-difference method systematically examines the different effects of two types of wage increases on corporate exports.Fifth,deepen the understanding of the mechanism of influence between wages and corporate exports.From the perspective of theoretical framework,through mathematical model deduction and logical deduction,it is concluded that wages will have an indirect impact on the "quality" and "quantity" of exports through efficiency and quality effects;from the perspective of research methods and research,in empirical analysis Using the intermediary effect model and the threshold effect model,the overall sample of manufacturing enterprises and the sub-samples of different types of enterprises are tested separately to analyze the efficiency and quality effects of wages on enterprise exports from a more microscopic and three-dimensional perspective,and Breaking through the separation of different influence paths in previous studies,incorporating the two influence mechanisms of efficiency effect and mass effect into the same model,so that the “quality”and “quantity” of exports become an organic whole;in terms of research content,try to integrate The efficiency effect mediated by total factor productivity is further decomposed into factor substitution effect,human capital investment effect,efficiency wage effect,and survival of the fittest effect.It is verified from the perspective of measurement,which breaks through the path of previous research that only discusses the impact mechanism from the theoretical level or only from The empirical level verifies the limitations of individual effects,so that theoretical research and empirical research on the impact mechanism of wages and corporate exports can better mutually confirm each other.The focus of this article is to analyze the impact of current wage increases on the exports of my country’s manufacturing enterprises.The research framework is divided into three parts: firstly,it studies the relationship between wages and the "quality" of enterprise exports;secondly,it examines the relationship between wages and the "quantity" of enterprise exports;and finally,further studies on the relationship between wages and the "quantity" of enterprise exports.The mechanism of influence between time was discussed.The main research conclusions are as follows:The results of the impact of wages on the “quality” of corporate exports show that:First,there is a U-shaped relationship between wages and corporate export quality.A rise in wages will inhibit the improvement of corporate export quality to a certain extent in the short-term,but it will affect companies from a mid-to long-term perspective.Export quality has a positive impact.Although wages will have a certain negative impact on the export quality of enterprises in the initial stage of rising,the empirical results also show that wages are still positively correlated with the export quality of enterprises on the whole.That is to say,my country should be in the back of the U-shaped interval.halfway.Second,the U-shaped relationship between wages and export quality of enterprises only exists in labor-intensive enterprises,while in capital-and technology-intensive enterprises,wages have a linear positive effect on export quality;this U-shaped relationship is in the east Regions are significant.Wages in the central and western regions have a linear effect on export quality,and there is no "U"-shaped nonlinear effect;for labor-intensive enterprises,there is a significant U-shaped relationship between wages and export quality.Increasing labor costs in technology and capital-intensive enterprises will directly promote the improvement of the quality of exports of enterprises.Third,the different inducing factors that cause wage increases will affect the relationship between it and the export quality of enterprises.Specifically,the increase in wages caused by policy factors will inhibit the improvement of export quality,while the increase in wages caused by non-policy factors will affect export quality.Obviously positive effect.The results of the impact of wages on the “quantity” of corporate exports show that:First,under the pressure of rising wages,Chinese manufacturing companies are more inclined to choose to make export participation decisions and increase export sales by increasing export scale.To alleviate the direct cost pressure caused by rising wages.Second,the role of rising wages in promoting export participation of enterprises is more obvious in capital and technology-intensive enterprises,and the promotion of export scale is more obvious in labor-intensive enterprises;the impact of wages on export participation and export scale of enterprises is in the central region Regions and western regions are the most obvious,and have the least impact on enterprises in the eastern region.The increase in wages has the strongest effect on the export participation and export scale of enterprises in private enterprises,while the impact on foreign-funded enterprises is relatively weak.Rising wages may even affect the exports of state-owned enterprises.Participation has a negative impact.Third,from the perspective of rising wages,wage rises driven by non-policy factors have significantly increased the export scale of enterprises,and wage rises under policy factors have had a significant negative impact on the export scale.Third,the results of the impact mechanism of wages and corporate exports show that:First,rising wages have an impact on the "quality" of corporate exports through changes in total factor productivity,that is,the efficiency effect,which specifically refers to the fact that rising wages are conducive to total factor productivity.The improvement of total factor productivity will have a positive effect on the export quality of enterprises.The sub-sample test found that the mediating effect of total factor productivity of different types of enterprises on the "qualitative" of enterprise exports is different.Second,rising wages will also affect the "quantity" of exports through changes in total factor productivity,but the efficiency effect between wages and the "quantity" of exports is different from the"quality" of exports.Rising wages promote all factors.The increase in productivity in turn restrains the "quantity" of exports by enterprises,that is,total factor productivity plays a masking effect between rising wages and the "quantity" of exports by enterprises.The sub-sample test also confirms that the "quantity" of total factor productivity between different types of enterprises has an effect on exports.The masking effect of "is different.Third,the forward transmission path of efficiency effect can be subdivided into four different influence paths: factor substitution effect,human capital investment effect,efficiency wage effect,and survival of the fittest effect.All of the above effects will affect enterprise exports by improving total factor productivity.Fourth,there is not only an efficiency effect between wages and the "quantity" of exports by enterprises,but wages also affect the "quantity" of exports through quality effects.It is worth noting that the quality between wages and the "quantity" of exports by enterprises The effect is accompanied by the efficiency effect.With the improvement of the export quality level of enterprises,the cover-up effect of total factor productivity between wages and the“quantity” of exports gradually weakens,and the “quality” of exports has an impact on the “quantity” of exports."Quantity" exerted a positive influence and proved the existence of the quality threshold effect.