The Influence Of Population Age Structure On Enterprise Export Fluctuation

This paper studies this problem from both theoretical and empirical aspects.In theory,this paper first reviews the literature research related to export volatility,and then summarizes the related research on the influence of population age structure on the export volatility of enterprises through the total factor productivity mechanism,labor income share and corporate profit mechanism.Then,based on the Nash salary bargaining theory and the new new trade theory,this paper constructs a theoretical model at the enterprise level to explain the impact of the population age structure on the export trade fluctuations and its mechanism.In the empirical aspect,this paper selects the enterprise-level panel data matched by the industrial enterprise database and the customs database from 2000 to 2006 for empirical research to test the impact of population age structure on the export fluctuation of enterprises.Then,through the regression of the number of employed labor,the proportion of wages,the relative inventory size and the total factor productivity,the effectiveness of some mechanisms of theoretical research is verified.Then the paper is grouped according to the sample characteristics to test the difference of the influence of population age structure changes on different grouping samples.Finally,in order to verify the accuracy of the empirical research results,this paper uses the samples after removing the extreme values,the fluctuations adjusted by the industrial output value of the enterprise,and the fluctuation data at the provincial level to conduct regression,and test the robustness of the regression results.Through the theoretical and empirical research of this paper,the main conclusions are as follows:(1)Aging will increase the export volatility of enterprises.(2)The age structure of the population affects the export volatility of enterprises through two mechanisms: on the one hand,the aging of the population It reduces the total factor productivity of enterprises,which affects the export choices of enterprises and causes export fluctuations.On the other hand,the deepening of population aging makes the proportion of labor compensation increase,and the profit margin of enterprises decreases,which affects the export choice and export fluctuation of enterprises.(3)From the results of the group regression study,the age structure change of the population has a greater and more significant impact on the export volatility of non-state-owned,foreign-funded,large-scale and long-term enterprises.(4)The adjusted robustness test results are all Significant.Based on the analysis of the existing literature,the innovations of this paper mainly include the following:(1)Extending the variables affecting trade fluctuations from economic variables to population variables.(2)Focusing on micro-enterprises,studying the age structure of population and export fluctuations at the enterprise level.(3)Based on Nash salary bargaining and new new trade theory,the impact mechanism of population variables on corporate export volatility is studied.