Study On Grain Consumption Based On The Goal Of Nutrition

It is not only an important period of economic and social transformation in next 10 years, but also the key periods that the people lives and meals nutrition will have taken great changes. The coordination of relationship among grain production, grain consumption,and residents'nutrition health is the inevitable requirement of transforming the method of food development. It is also an urgent requirement of improving residents'nutritional levels, enhancing the people's comprehensive quality and building harmonious society. In the period of the transformation from fundamental well-off society to comprehensive well-off society, the pressure of the arable land, water resources, environment and population will be much more severe, the growth of grain will be more difficult, and the guarantee of the balance between grain supply and grain demand will be more difficult. Under the conditions that food production and food consumption are not coordinate and that food consumption and nutritional improvement are not coordinate, the study on grain demand based on the goal of nutrition, and establishing a mode that nutrition guides consumption and consumption guides production are significant, Which are helpful to utilize the grain production resources reasonably, change the mode of grain supply-demand balance, and ensure the goal realization of food security.The dissertation integrated the methods of theoretical analysis and case study, and carried out several aspects of study such as the influencing factors, characteristics, evolvement rules and trends of grain consumption. The results showed that the increase of grain consumption was mainly influenced by grain supply, income increase, meal structure improvement and urbanization, the proportion of grain consumption in food consumption declined, but grain consumption is still dominated in food consumption; total quantity of grain consumption can't be reverse, grain consumption of Urban households and rural households will continue to decline, the increase of feed grain is dominated in total grain consumption increase, the industrial grain consumption will become a new power increase of future grain consumption; and that it should necessary to adjust the structure of grain consumption based on the goal of nutrition in order to guarantee the grain supply-demand balance and realize the goal of food security, if we wish the pattern of paying attention to output and partial to material input in grain production transformed to optimal structure and improving the efficiency of resource utilization, and that it were not limited by arable land, water resource and so on.The study analyzed the relationship among grain consumption, production and nutrition. Grain consumption is the major source that people acquires energy and protein, which has provided more than 70% of total energy and protein. The proportion of energy and protein which came from direct grain consumption declined, but still dominated. The proportion of energy and protein which came from feed grain consumption increased. The energy elasticity of grain demand and protein elasticity of grain demand are short of flexibility, the fat elasticity of grain demand is richly flexibility. The study analyzed the relationships between grain consumption and nutrition. It was established a method that grain consumption transformed to energy and protein. By calculation, the coefficients of direct grain consumption transforming to energy and protein are respectively 0.258, 0.556, and the coefficients of feed grain consumption transforming to energy and protein are respectively 0.179, 0.789. A mode of grain demand forecast based on the goal of nutrition was established, through which the dissertation forecasts the quantities of direct grain demand, feed grain demand, total grain demand respectively for 2010 years, 2015 years and 2020 years.The dissertation calculated the quantity of grain production resource demand based on the goal of nutrition, compared and appraised the benefits. Under analyzing the present status and developing trend of arable land and water resources which are tightly related to food production, the study estimated the resource demand quantity of grain production for 2010 years, 2015 years and 2020 years according to the nutrition goal of moderate energy demand, and compared the results with the resource demand quantity of grain production none-based on the goal of nutrition. The results indicated that the grain demand based on the goal of nutrition could save 72 million ton compared with the grain demand none-based on the goal of nutrition if only calculated the total quantity of direct grain demand and feed grain demand, the quantity of cultivated land demand in comprehensive well-off society (2020 years) is 111 million ha. .Which can save 7 million ha. compared with the quantity of cultivated land demand none-based on the goal of nutrition, and that the proportion of irrigated water in agriculture water demand and total irrigated water demand were respectively 24% and 34% when based on the goal of nutrition in grain production.Guaranteeing the grain supply-demand balance is required to consider from several aspects. Firstly, it needs to build up new conception based on the goal of nutrition. Secondly, it is necessary to establish science and technology supporting system which is correspond to food structure and grain supply-demand. Thirdly, it is important to strengthen cooperation of food production department and nutrition depertment. At last, it is urgent to strengthen propaganda of food nutrition knowledge and healthy grain consumption.