The Prediction Of Grain Consumption And Structure Optimization Of China

This paper mainly discusses the analysis of China's urban and rural residents grain consumption quantity, structure, health and its structure. Through to the next 10 years of grain consumption demand of urban and rural residents, will predict natural consumption structure and balanced, comparing the structure under ensure food quantity and health are advised.This article will "food" defined as rice, corn and wheat three main varieties, this is based on the conventional definition, this paper food with the actual demand, statistics caliber and defined. Will demand for food divided into two most:direct and indirect demand; demand Among them, the "direct demand" refers to ration demand, namely direct intake of food products, "indirect demand" is a grain is meat, poultry, eggs, milk, aquatic products and wine, because food is an animal feed ingredient, also be the main raw materials. Wines brewedThis paper studied a number of literature, summed up demand for food budget method, micro and macro influence factor, but found several aspects of the problem is ignored or unresolved. These problems include:not considering the influence of outer repast, residents of urban and rural residents have differences without considering the food consumption demand, confusing food and some related definitions, ignoring the new period of the national food nutritional needs of both data and not be realized clearly, etc. Therefore, this article dedicated to solving the problem, and the remaining a certain innovation.On the grain consumption demand forecast, this article through to almost 30 years of consumption data obtained the basic characteristics of grain consumption, i.e. relative stability, urban and rural differences, thus chose for grain consumption forecasting data analysis method, the direct wave method. With this method as the premise, and with the types of grain consumption for framework to existing official data basis, residents grain consumption characteristics, this paper for guiding the future food consumption demand of urban and rural residents separately carried on the forecast and corrected, and involves a lot of grain of partition and indirect demand related calculation, further increasing the forecasting accuracy.On the grain consumption structure, this paper selects the 2015 and 2020 for urban and rural residents for node, analysis of the next 10 years the structure of grain consumption is fluctuant circumstance.For urban residents, food for total demand is rising and the feed grains and ration consumption change is big, internal structure change, rich feed grains. Direct rations consumer by other alternative food; Pork consumption of food, but is still despite diminishing the most big grain consumption; Beef and mutton grain consumption increases fastest proportion; The consumption of food demand growth of poultry is greatest; Other varieties does not change significantly. For rural residents are concerned, the overall food demand will decrease, but more significant structural change. Directly by other food rations consumer obvious alternative, aquatic products, dairy products, and others will increase obviously and town difference.Discusses the structure change of urban and rural residents grain consumption after its structure, with balanced each structure with the food. This paper selects the "Chinese food and nutrition development outline", "Chinese 'dietary guidelines" and "a balanced meal pagoda", Chinese nutrition improvement plan of action "and Japan's food consumption, as a balanced structure reference.With balanced by the food consumption structure under the condition of contrast, this paper found that if nothing is done any intervention, urban and rural residents will have problems-grain consumption of urban residents in grain consumption structure to balanced standard draws close, but the gap is still very large; Rural residents and away from balanced nutrition trend. Specifically:first, rural residents by partial much food rations consumer will become insufficient, urban residents constantly low rations; The trend was meat substitute staple of urban residents intensifies, including target from balanced food rations consumer farther. Second, meat consumption of food beyond health level, local disequilibrium serious:pork excessive intake (town improve speed than nutrition target, rural continues to worsen); Red meat, poultry inadequate intake, food consumption inefficient situation did not improve. Third, whether urban or rural residents, eggs, aquatic products, dairy products are nowhere nutrition requirements, although growth very quickly, but intake is still inadequate. Fourth, alcohol excessive intake (town gradually improved, the countryside will also increase grain alcohol consumption); Part of the alcohol intake inevitable crowd than nutrition range dramatically. Fifth, food consumption feed grains efficiency is not high, the efficiency of conversion from the lowest proportion of pork very big. In short, in both urban and rural areas of urban and rural residents of the environment, the food consumption structure and change trend, and different in different extent deviation nutrition requirements.On the analysis of the structure of grain consumption, but also brief analyses more than the amount of grain consumption, involving the national food safety problems. First, according to the consumer products to see, feed grains consumption rises more than rations consumption reduced amplitude, make food consumption on the rise.--this is our future will be showing the general trend feed grains alternative rations. Second, according to grain consumption demand of urban and rural residents, rural residents see narrowed by urban residents consumption less than total consumption rises in widening,. Participate in grain production by farmers, and towns urbanization gradually citizen neither food production also not reserve grain, the future of China's grain production pressure fall fewer farmers, and grain reserves burden will fall on the government's head. Therefore this paper also can be used to predict the results in the national grain reserves and production in strategic.Therefore, Chinese residents over the next decade food consumption structure deviated from the health level need timely intervention. This paper puts forward several Suggestions:first, and build a reasonable food price mechanism (price regulation guarantee food supply, execute differs subsidies, incentive, improve alcohol taxes); Second, improving food production technology (improve conversion, adopt unconventional feed grains of grain feed to replace feed, around nutrition goals and high quality varieties breeding strengthen basic research); Third, propose reasonable meal nourishment concepts (propaganda reasonable prandial concept, improving national nutrition consciousness, for vulnerable populations special nutritional concept education); Fourth, the optimization of grain production structure (control food indirect consumption, implement over-increase differs staple foods planting strategy); Fifth, establish a diversified national nutrition management system (a special state food and nutrition steering committee, establishing nutrition testing system, designated security residents eat a healthy diet and related laws and regulations, and set up relevant industry association); Sixth, security of grain production and reserves of food.