Multiscale Analysis And Inversion Of Energy Consumption And Economic Development

It is very important to study the relation of energy consumption and economic growth in order to formulate and implement energy policy. And it affects economic development. So the study has very important significance and theoretical value.By means of the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Inversion Method, the thesis analyzes the relation of energy consumption and economic growth of different countries and regions and various industrial type. The research suggests:(1)Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) shows that the fluctuation of China's GDP has 5.44-year quasi-period. And IMFs of China's energy consumption indicate that energy consumption have 5.10-year and 11.75-year quasi-period. Contrasted quasi-period and variance contribution rate with each other, it can be found that energy consumption and economic growth have properties of fluctuation, periodical and asymmetry. And it suggests that they are nonlinear after Inversion.(2) The consumption data of China's coal, oil, natural gas, electricity for 50 years were decomposed, it was shown that the IMFs of coal consumption include two quasi-periodic of 4.64 years and 11.75 years. The IMF of oil consumption shows 5.26 years quasi-periodic. The IMFs of natural gas consumption contain 3.06 years,9.40 years,21.50 years of quasi-periodic, respectively. The IMF of electricity consumption shows 6.53 years quasi-period. Compared the GDP with different types of energy of their cycle time and variance contribution rate, it can be found that energy consumption and economic growth have properties of fluctuation, periodical and asymmetry. And it is suggested that they are nonlinear after Inversion.(3) The GDP and energy consumption of three industries were decomposed by the use of EMD. The results show that the GDP of primary industry contain one cycle of 3.47 years. Energy consumption of primary industry include two cycles of 2.71 years and 7.50 years. The GDP of secondary industry implies a quasi-period of 4.16 years, energy consumption of secondary industry show two cycles of 2.71 years and 7.50 years. The GDP of tertiary industry contains 4.00 years quasi-period, and energy consumption of tertiary industry shows one quasi-period of 3.64 years. Compared the GDP with energy of their cycle time and variance contribution rate, it can be found that energy consumption and economic growth have properties of fluctuation, periodical and asymmetry. And it suggests that they are nonlinear after Inversion. (4) Liaoning Province and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region's GDP and energy consumption were analyzed by EMD. Compared the GDP with energy of their quasi-period and variance contribution rate of IMFs, it can be seen that energy consumption and economic growth have properties of fluctuation, periodical and asymmetry. And it suggests that they are nonlinear after Inversion.(5) The GDP and energy consumption of developed countries were analyzed by EMD, for example, the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom. The results reveal that the variance contribution rate of economic trend were large, And it shows that the trend of GDP has being grown. But variance contribution rate of energy consumption trend were quite different. The results indicate that the developed countries economic development and energy consumption have properties of fluctuation, periodical and asymmetry.The economy and energy consumption data of India and Brazil also were decomposed by EMD. And it was found that they also have properties of fluctuation, periodical and asymmetry. It also suggests that they are nonlinear of different national economy and energy consumption after Inversion.(6) The statistics and dynamic modeling are modeled according to the images of EMD and variance contribution rate. The models include long time series modeling, short time series modeling, and exponential growth model. The analysis shows that long time series modeling is better if the growth rate changes small in time series late stage. The other two forms of modeling are better if the growth rate changes greatly. If the variance contribution rate of trend is relatively low, and IMF component fluctuate largely, error of two models is often higher than 5%, and the simulation accuracy is low, so the long time series modeling is need. In addition, because the results of simulation and prediction are similar for short time series modeling and exponential growth modeling, it is easy to establish exponential growth model for short-term forecast, and it is operated easily.In this paper, the different regional economy development and energy consumption were analyzed by EMD and Inversion model, it not only enrich the research methods, and it can guide sustainable development in the future.