Research On Energy Forecasting Model Of A Certain State (city) In Yunnan Province

Energy is the basis for the existence and development of human society,although China's energy reserves is relatively large,the amount of energy resources hold by each Chinese person are scarce and the prospect of energy is still not cheerful.Meanwhile,excessive exploitation and utilization of energy not only reduce the energy reserves,but also destroy the environment,causing serious pollution of the ecological environment.Since the reform and opening up,China has made great achievements in the field of energy,but it also brings a lot of problems,such as relatively low energy efficiency,increased energy supply and demand contradiction,increasingly serious environmental pollution and so on,these have brought some obstacles to the sustainable development of social economy.Therefore,we need to accelerate the transformation of energy development and adjust the structure of energy consumption and energy production,moreover,building a national economic system and resource conserving society with low consumption of resources,less environmental pollution and good economic performance,so as to predict the production and consumption of energy in China,and to monitor and plan energy use.It is of great significance to promote the increase of GDP in Hong He,to build a harmonious society and a conservation minded society.Total energy consumption,industrial structure,key energy consuming industries on the current situation of energy consumption in Honghe Prefecture were analyzed in this article,and a comprehensive and detailed analysis was also made on the main features of the energy consumption of Honghe Prefecture by the establishment of factor decomposition method from three aspects of economic factors,technical factors and structure factors.On this basis,using factor analysis,multiple linear regression model and exponential smoothing prediction model was employed to predict the total energy consumption in Honghe Prefecture,and then the forecast value and the actual value error was calculated and the advantages and disadvantages of each model was compare.Finally,variable weight combination model was used for modeling and forecasting of energy demand coefficient of alienation in Honghe Prefecture,better prediction results with high prediction accuracy and reliability were obtained about the energy consumption situation in Honghe Prefecture.According to the present energy consumption situation of Honghe Prefecture,major energy consumption changes characteristics and the prediction results of total energy consumption,the existing problems in the development of energy industry was pointed out,and countermeasures and suggestions of the future energy development was put forward.The Honghe Prefecture must optimize the industrial structure,change the mode of economic growth,improve energy efficiency by scientific and technological progress and innovation,strengthen the government's macro-control,and improve the market oriented energy system,only in this way can it achieve the efficient use of energy and sustainable development in the future.