Research On The Interactive Relationship Between China's Foreign Trade Structure And Industrial Structure

Since China's reform and opening up, great changes have taken place in the economy. China's industrial development and trade patterns have made great progress, but also accompanied by structural imbalances, which lead to the external structural imbalance. And the imbalance of trade structure has negative effect on industrial structure, and strengthen the static comparative advantage of China further.In this global financial crisis, China's export-oriented industry suffered a serious blow. A number of developed countries implement "anti-dumping" and "anti-subsidy" policy to our country.The structure of China's internal and external economic was imbalance, this problem need to be solved, The adjustment of foreign trade structure and industrial structure is particularly important,Which is an important measure to reduce the trade friction,avoid the middle-income trap,maintain sustainable development of the industry and economic.The economic development pattern and the international environment is changing. Under this circumstances, how to view and evaluate the interactive relationship between foreign trade structure and industrial structure accurately?In the journety of our country to become a superpower in the world economy,which kind of trade strategy and industry policy should be choosed to achieve the positive interactive between the foreign trade structure and industrial structure development path?These problems have attracted widespread attention.Through the literature review, this paper found that more and more scholars is not limited to study the influence of the trade volume to the industrial structure.They put more focus on the relationship between trade structure and industrial structure.From the study path of total amount to structure,it means that the academic research perspectives are deepening.This paper put the interaction problem between trade structure and industrial structure as research subject, and try to find out the positive paths of this two interaction, In order to put forward the proposal of trade policies which is based on the upgrade of industrial structure.Firstly, the use of the theory of industrial economics and international trade defines the concept and content of trade-related structural transformation and upgrading of industrial structure. Analysis of the current status of research at home and abroad on the basis of this, we find that the evolution of domestic research scholars on China's trade structure and industrial structure, interaction mechanisms, internal links, are limited to a single structure or hierarchy, and not be used as a systems engineering. Among these researches, there are many articles focused on the relationship between commodity structure of foreign trade goods research, mode structure and industrial structure for literature service commodity structure. On the contrast there is almost no research focused on pattern structure, regional structure and industrial structure. Almost all of the literature and the industrial structure is defined as that, three industries accounted for the proportion of GDP. Combined with China's actual situation, this paper considers that the optimization of industrial structure should contain at least two aspects, one is to soften of the industrial structure, and the other is to deepen of the industrial structure. So it deserves further study on the theme of this article, a systematic project to study the relationship between industrial structure as the structure of foreign trade. This paper explores the interaction mechanism of trade structure and industrial structure from four angles, namely the interaction mechanism between product structure and industrial structure, the interaction mechanism between mode structure and industrial structure, the interaction mechanism between regional structure and industrial structure, the interaction mechanism between mode structure and industrial structure.Secondly, this paper describes the evolution of my1985-2012annual foreign trade structure and industrial structure. In the commodity structure, although manufactured goods in exports and imports have switched to dominate, but the added value of machinery and transport equipment exports is far below the level of the developed countries. In the service commodity structure, the traditional services still dominate the domain, and the emerging services still occupy small proportion of in total services exports. Foreign trade structure is still a parallel mode of general trade and processing trade, the proportion of processing trade accounted for half. Via analysis of regional structure of foreign trade, the paper hold the view it's highly concentrated in China's import and export market, and does not achieve the strategy of diversification on trade. Measuring the structure of foreign trade pattern, it concludes that import and export of primary products is still occupied mostly by inter-industry trade patterns, but the inner-industry level of trade is still not high. In addition, compared with the general rules of the evolution of the world's industrial structure, the proportion of the output value of China's first industry is significantly lower than the corresponding value of standard model, secondary industry output value proportion is significantly higher than the corresponding value of the standard model, the proportion of third industrial output value is less than the standard level. From the factor intensity of the structure, the proportion of capital-intensive industries in China's industrial output continued to rise, but the speed is still slow.Next, this paper proves the interaction mechanism between trade structure and industrial structure empirical test, using cointegration, Granger causality test, vector autoregression (VAR) model and impulse response measurement methods, etc., In this paper, the growth rate of changing in their total economy is multiplied by the accounting changes for each component of the product of the total share reflecting in the economic structure, and conclude the influence of the trade structure adjustment on structural indicators changes. We find that the trade structure has a certain lag effect on the impact of the industrial structure. In our views, the structure of merchandise exports of goods, services and mode changes in the way export a greater impact on the industrial structure, and the corresponding changes in the import structure of the contribution of the industrial structure small. The impact of mode structure and regional structure on the industrial structure interaction is weak.Then, the paper not only carries out the macro-perspective analysis from the interaction between trade structure and the three-industrial structure, but also researches the impact of upgrading trade structure on the industrial structure from the micro perspective. After the expansion of exports in the endogenous growth model is extended to the general logarithmic model, this paper investigated the impact of industrial structure commodity structure of goods, services, product mix impact on the industry structure, regional structure on the industrial structure. Test results show that, first, it can deepen the industrial structure achieved by reducing exports of primary products. Second, you can make the industrial structure softness emerging services increased by increasing imports, and increased imports and exports of emerging services can make industrial structure more deepen. Third, reducing the processing trade imports and exports of processing trade helps to improve the level of industrialization. Fourth, in order to achieve the goal of deepen of the industrial structure, the same should be reduced between China's largest trading partner total imports and exports, fifth, the current industry trade scale will lead to the decline of the industrial structure depth.Finally, the paper summarizes the policies on industrial structure based on the degree of softening and industrial deepening trade. First, restrict the primary products trade and develop industrial products with high technological content of trade. Second, progressively expand services trade liberalization and focus on the development of new services, the transformation of traditional services. Third, develop trade and other general trade, and cancel asymmetry policies on processing trade and general trade. Fourth, implement regional diversification strategy, and actively integrate to regional trade organizations. Fifth, adopt the product-differentiation strategy, transform from the vertical-industry trade into horizontal-industry trade.