Study On Key Risk Factors And Suggestions Of Energy Performance Contracting Project Based On SEM

December 12, 2015,196 parties signed the "Paris Agreement",China promised carbon dioxide per unit of GDP in 2030 would fall down 60%-65% compared with that in 2005, the percentage of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption would attain to around 20%. Then the government pointed out that in "Thirteen Five-Year Plan", for the development of green industry we need implement the management of contract energy, the management of contract water and pollution controlled by third party. As a new energy-saving mechanism based on the market, the management of contract energy developed in China for 20 years, but the implementation of the management of contract energy is still subject to many constraints as policy, economic, market, etc and faces a number of risks.Based on the life cycle theory and stakeholder theory, the life cycle of the project of the management of contract energy is divided into investment decision-making phase, transformation and implementation phase and benefit sharing phase in the paper, and the stakeholders of the project are analyzed. In the systems theory and the structural equation model theory as the basis, taking the point of the companies of energy-saving service, this paper analyzes the relationship among three sources of risk, the system environment of the project of the management of contract energy, ESCO and the implementation of project. On this basis, combined with the life cycle theory, the paper analysis and identify the risk factors affecting the operation of the project as literature, establish the risk index system of the project, and build the key risk factor model of the project of the management of contract energy.Based on the questionnaire survey, the paper use SPSS19.0 statistical analysis software for data reliability and validity, and use AMOS17.0 for the structural equation modeling to test correction. Finally the paper select 15 key risk factors. Based on the estimated results of the model, the impact of the project of the 15 key risk factors is assessed. First, the risk indicators related with the implementation of the project, energy savings detection, the risk of default, the risk of credit, the risk of energy contracts and the risk of operation and maintenance, have a direct significant negative correlation for the success of the project and have the strongest degree of influence. Second, the risk indicators related with External environment, including the risk of policy, the risk of economy, the risk of market competition, the risk of changes in energy price and the risk of changes in equipment cost, have no direct significant correlation for the success of the project, but have Indirect effects through the implementation of the project, and have the degree of influence second to the implementation of the project. Third,the risk indicators related with ESCO, including the risk of technical quality, the risk of design, procurement and construction contracts, the risk of the management of internal organization, the risk of the management of external organization and the risk of the applicability of energy-saving technologies, have Indirect effects through the implementation of the project, and have the weakest degree of influence.Combine the basic theory of Energy Performance Contracting,the paper do An empirical analysis of the impact model of Energy Performance Contracting Project with SEM,identify the key risk factors of project, which provides a quantitative research method. Finally, the paper puts forward measures to reduce the risk of Energy Performance Contracting Project, in order to provide reference for the application of contract energy management mechanism.