| Energy is the motive force of development of economic, is the physical foundation of modern civilization. Long term stable supply of energy is an important guarantee of economic development,social stability and national security for country. China is a rich country of energy consumption, since reform and openning-up, As China's economic development and urbanization, the heavy chemical industry developed rapidly, China has entered a rapidly growing stage of energy consumption. The demand for Energy resources in China far exceeds the supply since the early1990's, The gap of energy supply and demand generally appears the trend of expansion year by year. Meanwhile, the regional distribution of the energy imbalance problems such as low energy utilization aggravated the tension in the energy supply, resulting in the rapid development of economy in our country is faced with steam pressure.China's energy mainly consists of coal, oil, natural gas, hydro energy, wind energy, nuclear energy and so on, which account for different proportions in China's energy production and consumption structure. As a resource with the largest number in China, coal has played an irreplaceable important role in the national economic development and people's lives. For many years, coal has always remained a proportion of about70%in China's primary energy production and consumption structure. With the wide popularity of natural gas, wind energy and other relatively green and clean energies in recent years, although the proportion of coal production and consumption has declined, China's coal consumption has still reached up to68.5%of the primary energy consumption by2012. Owing to the energy resource limit, China's coal-based energy supply and consumption pattern cannot be changed within a short term. It is noted that coal is a non-renewable and exhaustible resource. With the continuous consumption of coal resources during the process of economic growth, coal has gradually transformed from the original rich resource into a scarce resource. On the other hand, though China has a relatively abundant reserve of coal resources, it does not mean the effective supply of resources can be achieved. China's coal resource supply is also affected by many related constraints, such as the coal resources' occurrence conditions, ecological conditions, transportation conditions, etc. China's coal production is likely to face a so-called peak production exactly because of these constraints. The problem not only hinders the healthy development of China's national economy, but also poses a threat to China's future energy security. Therefore, this paper applies the multi-disciplinary theories comprehensively, learns from the existing research results, reflects from the perspective of coal production and demands, and makes an in-depth study of China's coal production peak and sustainable utilization issue of coal resources. This paper consists of nine chapters, and the specific contents are as follows:Chapter1:Introduction. This chapter mainly outlines the background? research purposes and significance, on the basis of domestic and oversea research on the coal production peak?the relationship between the economic growth and coal consumption coal demand forecast and sustainable utilization of coal resources, this chapter extracts the main rearch content?research framework and determines the corresponding research methods of this thesis, Finally, it points out the innovation and limitation of this thesis.Chapter2:Relative theory foundation. This chapter respectively analyzes the theory of limit to growth?fossil energy production peak?sustainable development sustainable utilization for coal resources?Kuznets curve theory and ecological footprint theory.Chapter3:Analysis of the supply and demand for China's energy and coal resources. First this chapter analyzes the general situation of the supply and demand for China's energy, including our country energy resources endowment and characteristics, energy supply and demand situation as well as the structure of energy prodution and consumption. Secondly, this chapter analyzes the general situation of the supply and demand for China's coal resources, including our country coal supply and demand situation?coal import and export?coal transportation and the coal price conditions. Chapter4:Research on relationship between energy consumption?coal consumption and economic growth of China. First this chapter analyzes the energy resource consumption elasticity coefficient as well as energy intensity of China, and analyzes the causality of energy consumption and economic growth. And then, this chapter analyzes the coal resource consumption elasticity coefficient as well as coal consumption intensity of China, and analyzes the causality of coal consumption and economic growth.Chpter5:Study on the environment impact of China's coal consumption. Fist this chapter set up the ecological footprint model of coal consumption to study the the ecological sustainability of coal resources, the results shows that consumption of use of coal resources in China have external negative effects, the sustainable development of coal resource environmental bearing capacity constraints is becoming more and more serious. And then this chapter analyzes the carbon emission intensity of China based on theory of environmental Kuznets curve. The results show that eoncomic development level?the intensity of carbon consumption?energy consumption structure?industrial structure have a significant impact on China's carbon intensity. The intensity of carbon consumptioin is the most important factor in achieving carbon reduction target; energy consumption structure and industrial structure have a relatively minimal impact on carbon emission intensity; There is an inverted N curve relationship between the economic development and carbon emission intensity, It shows that a shift in economic development patterns is helpful to achieving the carbon reduction target.Chapter6:Study on medium-and long-term forecast on coal demands in China during the process of industrialization and urbanization. This chapter adoptsthe analysis method of Kuznets curve in this chapter to establish panel data non-linear model and make medium-and long-term forecast for coal demands in China, whose results indicate that the Kuznets features between our coal demands and economic growth is obvious, and inverted U-shape Kuznets curve hypothesis of our coal consumption is true in China; industrialization and urbanization process has promoted the rapid growth of coal demands, our coal consumption will reach4.8billion tons-5billion tons under the low, medium and high speed of economic growth. Chapter7:Study on China's chinese coal production peak. This chapter describes the coal production peak firstly in this Chapter, then carry out curve fitting of coal production peak using linear return model and Logistic model, finding that due to the inherent defects of linear return model, its forecast value is quite different with actual value, so it is not accurate; thereby we adopt the fitting results of Logistic curve mainly in this article:it will be in the year of2018to reach the coal peak at about4.966billion tons for China under the existing resources and technology conditions, after which production will decline over time.Chapter8:Implementation way and policy recommendations for sustainable utilization of coal in China. In order to realize the sustainable utilization of coal resources, a long-lasting regulatory mechanism of balanced coal supply and demands should be established. The regulatory mechanism includes the regulation and control over international markets as well as over total amount of domestic coal supply and demands. The regulation and control over international markets cover two aspects, including encouraging imports, making full use of foreign coal resources and accelerating the pace of going-out and exploring the foreign coal resources rationally. The regulation and control over the total amount of domestic coal supply and demands can be achieved from two aspects:one is coal consumption end, which can be divided into direct regulation and control that is to control the target by directly determining the reasonable coal consumption so as to control the total consumption of coal reasonable and indirect regulation and control that is to adjust industry structure, improve energy structure and improve energy utilization, etc. to reduce the demands for coal resources; another is supply end, which is to control the total volume of coal production by enhancing the macro-control over the coal production, arranging the security measurement for total amount control in advance so as to ensure effective supply of domestic coal supply after controlling the total coal production and meet reasonable demand of economic development.Chapter9:Conclusions and prospects. This chapter discusses the main contribution of our research work and provides some possible future extensions..The main innovations of this dissertation are as follows: First, the research on sustainable use of coal resources has not yet formed a complete research system of economics at present in our country. As the research object of this paper, coal resources have a very special dual role in sustainable economic and social development process in our country. On the one hand, the paper affirms the fundamental role of coal resources in China's economic development; on the other hand, this paper studies the sustainable utilization of coal resources from the ecological footprint theory. And it is found that the use of ecological carrying capacity is significantly less than the ecological footprint from1988to2011, the use of coal resources has external negative effects, the sustainable development of coal resource environmental bearing capacity constraints is becoming more and more serious.Second, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory is introduced into the study of relationship between economic development and the field of coal consumption, and with reference to the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model principle, set up the nonlinear kuznets curve model of economic development and the coal consumption with panel data, while as two important control variables, the industrialization and urbanization is included into the model for comprehensive consideration. And forecast the coal demand in the process of industrialization and urbanization in the medium and long term. Finally we come to a conclusion that China's coal consumption Kuznets inverted U-shaped curve hypothesis is founded in our country; industrialization and urbanization promote the rapid growth of coal demand at low medium and high three kinds of different economic growth situation, China's coal consumption will reach4.8billion tons-5billion tons in2020. To study the coal problem with the principle of environmental Kuznets hypothesis is rare at present in our country.Third, the research on China's coal production peak. Currently, although much research on the coal production peak has been done in abroad, but only a fews work has been done in our country. The thesis has gived a lot of research and analyze to the coal production peak of China?Shaanxi province?Shanxi province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region by the logistic curve model. In China, for example:If the economy is still growing rapidly and the energy consumption structure remain constant, with the decreasing of coal resources, our Country will be faced a situation which we must completely depend on the coal import to meet the demand of its bounding economy by2018. This issue, on one hand, which will be a big constraint of China's economic development, on the other hand, it will also cause great pressure to the international coal market. The research of coal production peak prediction has important significance for economic sustainable development and coal resources sustainable utilization in China. |
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