Research On The Impact Of Agricultural Loans On The Economic Behavior And Efficiency Of Small Farmers

No.1 of the Central Government in 2018 first discussed "promoting the organic connection between the development of small farmers and modern agriculture" and put forward the research and formulation of policies to support the production of small farmers.The background to make theoretical and policy level gradually realized that in the development of China's small farmers is about agriculture as the foundation of a kind of long-term existence of stability and social stability,not only related to the major theoretical stable rural economic and social problems,is a policy practice needs to solve the rural household contract responsibility system reform facing the new breakthrough,in 40 years in 2020 after achieving the overall poverty can guarantee the original major political task for the sustainable development of poor rural areas.However,there is no doubt that even if the family income of the poor group passes the poverty line,the poor areas are likely to continue to suffer from such factors as livelihood vulnerability and lack of access to productive resources.The situation of"development poverty" or"opportunity poverty" still existing after the rural areas in poor areas exceed the poverty line can be summarized as the "post-poverty" period.In the post-poverty period,rural families will face many uncertainties of survival and development,leading to the possibility that poor people who have crossed the poverty line may return to poverty or be in low income situation for a long time.Rural financial reform and innovation must face up to the post-poverty period of rural and village problems.Based on the actual investigation of the rural areas in the poor areas of northwest China,it is of great significance to scientifically understand the path and mode selection of rural financial innovation in the post-poverty period,so as to promote the rural financial system to support the agricultural transformation and upgrading,improve the combination of financial capital and potential production factors,and finally promote the comprehensive development of rural economy and society.Based on the current situation of economic and financial development of small peasant families in poor areas in the "post-poverty" period,this paper studied and analyzed the effects,operation mechanism and optimal path choice of rural financial development on small peasant families' resolution of livelihood vulnerability and resolution of income uncertainty.Will follow "the question put forward comb-theory of financial development and poverty,poverty,poor economic and financial conditions of farm households,agricultural credit affect small farm household economic behavior and mechanism of efficiency measurement verification,inspection results to discuss-financial improvement,promote the development of" poverty "after the period of farm households routing policy recommendations" research route.On the basis of sorting out the domestic and foreign literature on financial development,efficiency and small-scale peasant economy behavior,the sample data of 23,000 peasant households from the national rural fixed observation point survey data from 1995 to 2015 were selected,and the data were obtained from the field research on the economic and financial situation of poor peasant households in the four provinces and regions of northwest China in 2013 and 2018.Respectively using statistical description,simultaneous model,dynamic panel system GMM method,multilevel Logit model,the methods of multivariate Logit model,analysis of the current situation of poor areas farmers household borrowing,peasant household production and operation situation,agricultural credit and welfare effect of farmers' financial behavior,agricultural credit and agricultural production efficiency,farmers agricultural credit support "necessity" farmers to "operational" farmers,agricultural credit,business scale and the effect of farmers' agricultural production and operation mode selection and operation mechanism.According to the previous research steps of rural financial development review,current situation investigation,empirical test and mechanism analysis,the paper finally tries to put forward the policy path that can help finance in poor areas to adapt to the development of small peasant families.The main conclusions are as follows:First,financial poverty reduction faces opportunities and challenges.Income,consumption,culture and education,infrastructure,medical and health care and other aspects of rural poor areas have been improved and structural optimization.In addition,the government policy guidance,the large-scale transfer of rural labor force,the penetration of agricultural modernization and the enhancement of farmers' living,management and investment consciousness,the poor rural production conditions and mode of production have been changing.However,farmers in poor areas are faced with a series of uncertainties,whether due to the decrease of farmland or the industrial fluctuation of the main labor force.Therefore,in a relatively long period of time,even if farmers in poor areas are lifted out of poverty according to existing standards under the support of policies,there are still a large number of farmers in "development poverty" or"opportunity poverty",namely "post-poverty" period.How to eliminate the multiple uncertainties of livelihood and income of small farmers after poverty alleviation is still prominent.Secondly,the acquisition of productive borrowing has a significant positive welfare effect on the production scale and financial asset investment of peasant households.Living loan significantly promotes the improvement of life quality of peasant households,but significantly inhibits household consumption level and financial asset investment.It is very likely that during the statistical period(1995-2015),both rural and urban residential construction in China showed a rapid growth trend,which on the one hand improved the quality of life of residents,but suppressed the overall consumption level and financial asset investment to some extent at the time when the borrowing took place.Both private lending and loans from formal financial institutions have a positive incentive to the scale of productive investment of rural households.When land resources are taken as explanatory variables,neither formal lending nor private lending has significant influence on financial asset investment.Under the two channels,the real interest rate has a significant negative effect on the acquisition of borrowing.The difference is that under the informal financial channels,the rise of real interest rate has a particularly significant inhibiting effect on the acquisition of borrowing,and the financial behavior of farmers is more sensitive.No matter what the interest rate is,the formal borrowing has a positive effect on the investment of financial assets but not significant.Thirdly,the credit acquisition of farmers in different regions significantly promotes the growth of family welfare effect,but there are obvious differences.The living consumption behavior of farmers in the western region depends more on the land scale and production investment,while the formal borrowing is more sensitive to the living consumption behavior in the eastern region.The effect of formal lending on productive investment in the east was 10.18%,slightly higher than that in the west.The ratchet effect of productive investment in western China is more significant than that in eastern China,indicating that farmers in western China are more dependent on agricultural production.In the eastern region,the improvement of the quality of life by productive investment and formal borrowing of peasant households has a greater effect on family welfare,which is not affected by the real interest rate and current consumption.This indicates that the social and economic efficiency of productive investment and formal lending allocation of capital resources in the eastern region is higher than that in the western region.Although the welfare effect of productive investment and formal borrowing by farmers in western China is lower than that in eastern China,the real interest rate and current consumption also produce significant positive welfare effect.Fourthly,the impact of farmers' access to agricultural credit on the transformation of farmers' livelihood is not only reflected in the direct impact,but also reflected in the indirect impact on the heterogeneity of village livelihood on the transformation of farmers' livelihood.Taking social capital as an example,agricultural credit access mainly refers to production and operation funds from rural financial institutions.The indirect effect of obtaining agricultural loans changes the promotion effect of livelihood transformation of loans,and the perfect financial capital supply system enhances the convenience of obtaining agricultural loans and indirectly promotes the production and operation of peasant households.The trend of "enterprise" of peasant households is not only the behavior of rural families,but also influenced by the livelihood level of the family and the livelihood characteristics of the village.There is no significant difference in the probability of "operational" peasant households among different types of villages,but the heterogeneity of group livelihood level,which represents the difference of village characteristics,has a significant impact on the transformation of peasant households' livelihood.Fifth,different types of livelihood capital play a heterogeneous role in the transformation of farmers into "operational" ones.It is shown that the livelihood capital levels of natural,material and financial resources significantly affect the livelihood transformation of farmers to different degrees,while the role of human capital is not obvious.This individual heterogeneity reflects the reality that rural human capital in poor areas of China is not properly allocated.Education degree to human capital,the livelihood capital,for example,the empirical results show no significant,the reason is that existing rural human capital because of the special knowledge,technology,management factors far can not adapt to the inherent demand of farmers transformation,easy to by fixed number of year of the education measuring changes in the number of human capital is not enough to affect farmers from the necessity to management.Sixth,the farmer's land management behavior has the limited rationality.As the main body of land management,peasant households are restricted by their capital accumulation,availability of loans and land management benefits,so they have limited judgment and decision-making ability to maximize their own interests in an uncertain environment.Household borrowing is an important factor for farmers to make differentiated land management decisions.Under the stimulus of agricultural credit existing land small-scale farmers choose to turn out,turn to more land rights or participate in land investment,suggests that agricultural credit intervention can promote the separation reform under the background of land property rights trading,agricultural credit expansion is the moderate concentration of land management scale,shows that the financial sector in the optimal combination of factors of production,the innovation of farmland management way will be able to deliver the core role to improve the efficiency of land.The innovation of this paper lies in the following aspects:first,it tries to realize theoretical innovation in the fields of development economics,financial development,rural finance theory and poverty economics.For example,put forward to support small farmers livelihood transformation of production,investment,credit category,theory,definition of "poverty" after the transformation of farmer,small-scale farmers,such as new concept of development,seeking to find agricultural credit to the transformation of farmers and separation in the process of the reform of land property rights transaction-land moderate scale effect of the concentration,the policy design to promote the development of small farmers to provide thought resources and practical basis.The second is to examine the effect and mechanism of agricultural loans on the economic behavior and efficiency of small farmers in poor areas under the background of financial marketization from three levels of agricultural production efficiency demand,supply and overall effect by combining the data of poor farmers,financial institutions and financial agricultural expenditures.Simultaneous equations by introducing a dynamic panel,multi-level Logit model,multivariate Logit model to construct the peasant household economic behavior and decision-making model to explain the reality problem,and GMM estimation process measurement process of possible errors and endogenous problems,real and effectively reflect the different levels of explain the influence of variables to be explained.Third,this paper directly targets poor areas and poor farmers,and attempts to effectively restore the status of rural financial services and financial poverty reduction effect in poor areas by combining the empirical test of large-scale samples and field research experience.Compared with similar researches in China,this paper focuses more on the characteristics of rural households' economic and financial development in the post-poverty period in poor areas.The samples are both the state-designated poverty key counties and the deep-poverty counties in northwest China.The sample size is relatively large,and the designed survey content and mining information are relatively deep and comprehensive.In addition,the research is interdisciplinary.The research involves behavioral finance,development economics,quantity economics,statistics and poverty economics.By means of field investigation,theoretical deduction,statistical and quantitative analysis,the author applies the above multidisciplinary knowledge to put forward original theoretical conclusion and policy thought independently.