Research On The Dilemma Of Kazakhstan’s Monetary Policy

Kazakhstan is located in central Asia and its territory spans the two continents of Asia and Europe.It is an important neighbor and comprehensive strategic partner of China.It is the pioneer of the Silk Economic Belt and the international core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt.In his 2013 speech at Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan,President Xi Jinping proposed that "we must vigorously strengthen pragmatic cooperation and be a good partner for mutual benefit and win-win results"and "strengthen the financing of finance".However,in fact,many factors are restricting the further advancement of financial cooperation,and the plight of monetary policy faced by partner countries is one of them.Monetary policy has played a huge role in responding to the 2007 sub-prime mortgage crisis.At the beginning of the sub-prime mortgage crisis,in order to maintain financial stability,major global central banks injected more than $ 320 billion into the banking system in August 2007.At the same time,monetary policy has been widely regarded by all countries as an important intervention to revive the economy for a long time after the sub-prime crisis.In order to support economic development,after 2008,major central banks around the world have introduced quantitative easing monetary policies.Today,however,monetary policy is becoming increasingly passive.The monetary policies of many emerging countries are trapped between "stabilizing growth and suppressing bubbles",and the monetary policies of many small open economies have been kidnapped by the question of "maintaining exchange rates or reserves.The more expectations that a troubled monetary policy is placed on,the greater the constraints it will have,and the more limited its role can be.It can be seen that,after the financial crisis,in the context of global monetary policy resonance,easing seems to have become a helpless move for countries to "not be for the future." As more and more economies fall into the plight of monetary policy,the independence of central banks in various countries is impaired,the trend of counter-globalization is rising,and the effect of financial cooperation is weakening.Against this background,this article takes Kazakhstan as the research object and delves into the plight of monetary policy it faces.First,combining the practice of Kazakhstan’s monetary policy with relevant monetary policy theories,the mechanism of the formation of the dilemma of Kazakhstan’s monetary policy is analyzed and discussed.Secondly,summarize and summarize the actual performance of Kazakhstan’s monetary policy dilemma,and construct an indicator system to measure its monetary policy dilemma level based on its actual performance.Then,according to the formation mechanism of its monetary policy dilemma,an index system was constructed to further explore the influencing factors of Kazakhstan’s monetary policy dilemma.This move also verified the correctness of the aforementioned Kazakhstan’s monetary policy dilemma formation mechanism through empirical methods.Then,summarize and analyze the methods adopted by Kazakhstan to cope with the plight of monetary policy.Finally,draw relevant conclusions and draw lessons from them to summarize the four-point proposal to build a financial framework for the Belt and Road Initiative.The main research contents are arranged as follows:First,the historical accumulation of monetary policy dilemma is interpreted from the practice of various theoretical schools of Kazakhstan,and the concentrated outbreak of monetary policy dilemma of Kazakhstan is analyzed from the perspective of post-crisis international spillover effects.At the beginning of the founding of Kazakhstan,under the influence of the monetarist school,the issue of price stability with inflation at its core was triggered.In the late 1990s,affected by the regional financial crisis and Keynesianism,the problems of financial stability and exchange rates,centered on reserves,were triggered.At the beginning of the 21st century,due to the comprehensive influence of the "third way" in the Western school,economic pragmatism prevailed,laying the groundwork for the structural problems of economic growth that it later faced.After the global financial crisis,the impact of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy spillover effect triggered the issue of debt-concentric financial stability.After the Ukrainian crisis,the impact of the commodity market spillover effect triggered the issue of monetary policy independence.Secondly,based on the theoretical framework,combined with the specific national conditions of Kazakhstan,the actual performance of its monetary policy dilemma is analyzed,and an indicator system is constructed to quantitatively evaluate the level of its monetary policy dilemma.The performance of Kazakhstan’s monetary policy is divided into two parts,internal and external.Internally,the plight of its monetary policy manifests itself as a contradiction between economic growth and price stability.Externally,its monetary policy dilemma is manifested by the contradiction between financial stability and the independence of monetary policy.The measurement of Kazakhstan’s monetary policy dilemma level is divided into two parts:the establishment of an index system and the synthesis of a composite index.First,an indicator system is constructed based on the actual performance of its dilemma,and then the weights are used to determine the composite index.Judging from the constructed dilemma index,Kazakhstan’s monetary policy dilemma does exist from accumulation to explosion.Thirdly,the empirical method is used to analyze the influencing factors of Kazakhstan’s monetary policy dilemma.In order to capture the time-varying characteristics and possible non-linear characteristics of the model’s lag structure,a time-varying vector auto regressive model is used for the empirical method.The empirical results prove that in the traditional theoretical school,the influence of monetary and Keynesianism on the Kazakhstan’s monetary policy dilemma index is greater than the impact of the third road in the West.The impact of the country’s monetary policy is greater than that of the commodity market.On the whole,the impact of Kazakhstan’s monetary policy dilemma index is the most significant on the US monetary policy,followed by the monetarist and Keynesian schools.Fourthly,Kazakhstan’s strategy choice and evaluation to deal with the dilemma of its monetary policy.In order to solve the dilemma of monetary policy,Kazakhstan has established two sets of internal and external coping strategies.The main foreign strategy is financial cooperation in order to weaken the impact of the US side on its plight of monetary policy.The internal strategy is mainly based on monetary policy reform and economic structure to reduce the impact of traditional theoretical constraints on its monetary policy dilemma.Then,based on Kazakhstan’s current practice,domestic reform is a long way off,and external cooperation is expected to become the main point of strength to ease its monetary policy dilemma.Therefore,to strengthen financial cooperation,especially to actively participate in or build financial cooperation led by non-western countries（such as financial cooperation under the framework of the silk road economic belt）,is the optimal path choice to alleviate and improve Kazakhstan’s monetary policy dilemma,and some Suggestions are put forward.Finally,it is a summary of Kazakhstan’s monetary policy dilemma,and three points on monetary policy triggered by the monetary policy dilemma.