Research On The Impact Of Trade Policy Uncertainty On China's Manufacturing Export Upgrading

In recent years,unilateralism and trade protectionism represented by Britain's hard Brexit and frequent US tax hikes have become prominent features of international trade.As a result,geopolitical risks have increased and downward pressure on the world economy has continued to increase.In this environment,keywords such as trade barriers,trade protection,trade policy uncertainty,Sino-US trade frictions,trade contraction,and economic losses frequently appear.Therefore,academia has conducted research on trade policy uncertainty.Based on the background of current Sino-U.S.trade friction,this article delves into the uncertainties of trade policy in three different stages and different eras during China's accession to WTO in 2002,the transition period after accession,and the Sino-U.S.trade friction period around 2018.Through theoretical empirical analysis,this paper study the impact of trade policy uncertainty on China's Manufacturing export upgrade.Using China Customs data,Chinese industrial enterprise data,UN comtrade data,tariff data provided by Feenstra et al.(2002)and the Tariff Download Facility database of the WTO,based on gravity model estimation,difference-in-difference estimation(DID),high-dimensional panel fixed effect estimation,Poisson model and quantile estimation methods,this paper has conducted in-depth research and analysis on the impact effects of trade policy uncertainty in the three stages at the industry level,micro-enterprise level and product level.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: First,the US market has an important position for China,accounting for about 18% of China's total exports.Since China's accession to the WTO,exports to the United States have been dominated by manufacturing,the commodity structure has become increasingly advanced,the value chain of export commodities has become increasingly high-end,and the technical level of export products has gradually improved.Second,under the background of China's accession to the WTO,the reduction of tariff policy uncertainty will significantly promote the expansion of export scale.The TPU decline of 0.1 units will cause export scale to increase by 4.59%.This conclusion is very robust.The scale expansion effect of the consumer goods industry and the low-medium technology industry is significantly larger than that of other industries.The mechanism of the impact effect of tariff policy uncertainty is mainly the sunk cost and the marginal effect of intensive and extensive.Third,during the transition period after China's accession to the WTO,there is a significant positive correlation between the non-tariff barrier policy uncertainty and the export upgrade of enterprises.Controlling a series of other factors,enterprises with improved TPU are more likely to upgrade their export than those without TPU:The export scale should be 15.6% higher,the export product quality should be 1.2% higher,the number of new export products should be5.6% lower,and the number of exit products should be 28.4% higher.This effect has good robustness,and the effects of the expansion of export scale and the upgrading of export quality of processing trade enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises are significantly stronger than other enterprises,and the export product switch effect of state-owned enterprises is significantly stronger than other enterprises.In terms of industry heterogeneity,the effects of scale expansion and product switch of exports of consumer products and low-tech industries are significantly stronger than those of other industries,while the effects of upgrading export quality of capital goods and intermediate goods industries or high-tech industries are significantly stronger.As far as export market heterogeneity is concerned,the scale effect of export products in the US market or high-income markets is significantly stronger than in other markets.Finally,the main mechanism of the effect of non-tariff barrier policy uncertainty is slightly different.The effects of export scale expansion and export quality upgrade are mainly the effect of enterprise self-selection and market subdivision,while the productivity of enterprises is the possible channel of the switch of export products.Fourth,in the context of Sino-US trade frictions,the uncertainty of comprehensive trade policy is inversely related to the level of Chinese exports to the US.The increase in TPU by 1 unit will significantly reduce the level of Chinese exports to the US by 7.6%.This effect is very robust and shows significant heterogeneous impact characteristics: processing trade products are significantly more inhibited than general trade;only intermediate goods are significantly stronger than capital goods and consumer goods;high technology is significantly stronger than medium and low technology industry.The main mechanism that the uncertainty of comprehensive trade policy affects the export scale of products lies in the market substitution effect and product adjustment mechanism.The research has important practical significance and policy connotation.Against the backdrop of the escalating global trade tensions,all countries are committed to strengthening the endogenous growth momentum of the economy to break through the current downturn.China is currently making every effort to develop strategic emerging industries and improve industrial competitiveness.Export trade is still an important means to promote this strategic goal.Both for policy makers and micro-enterprises,the conclusions of this article have important reference significance.For policy makers,although Sino-US trade frictions have suppressed macro-industry exports,they will force micro-enterprises to achieve transformation and upgrading.Therefore,in the current critical period of economic transformation,to deal with Sino-US trade frictions,we should maintain our strategic strength,persist in expanding trade liberalization.For micro-enterprises,trade policy uncertainty is both a challenge and an opportunity.On the one hand,trade policy uncertainty has led to higher barriers to entry in the foreign trade market,market competition has continued to escalate,and export companies that originally relied on low-value-added,low-quality products have withdrawn,which means TPU poses a greater challenge.However,on the other hand,the deterioration of the market environment has also formed a new round of "shuffle" : export companies have re-divided their export market shares based on product competitiveness,forcing companies to give up "small profits but quick turnover" for short-term profits and low-quality exports,in turn strengthen R&D,improve quality,and improve core competitiveness to achieve the transformation of export structure.Therefore,enterprises should take this opportunity to overcome difficulties and break into cocoons.