Research On The Risk Immunity Mechanism For Government Investment Large Project

The government investment large projects are operated in a complex natural and social environment.Compared with the general engineering projects,the investment scale is much larger,the implementation cycle is much longer,the technology is more complex,the scope much broader,and the social attention much higher.Therefore,the types of risk factors that the government investment large projects in the implementation process are more complicated.The correlation,variability and influence of risk are more significant.How to effectively prevent and deal with the risk of government investment in large-scale projects has become a hot issue for scholars at home and abroad.However,the existing engineering project risk management theory system has the disadvantages of "passive adaptation".Based on the analysis of the characteristics of the government investment large projects and risk attributes,based on the integrated use of system engineering theory,risk management theory and biological immunology theory,establish a biological immune system and government investment in large engineering project risk mapping relation.To simulate the operation mechanism of the biological immune system,a set of "active adaptation" government investment in the risk immune mechanism of large projects is proposed.The main contents of this dissertation include the following five parts:(1)Firstly,expounds the features and types of government investment projects,then,based on the multi-subject perspective of the project,the dissertation draws the risk map and analyzes the risk evolution process,constructs the DRL research paradigm of the risk immunity mechanism of large project projects by referring to the principle of biological immunology.(2)Discusses the principle of government investment large projects risk immune detection,screens risk immunoassay elements,based on DS evidence theory and rough set of government investment in large engineering project risk detection threshold model and algorithm.According to the artificial immune algorithm,the dissertation expounds the generation and operation process of risk detector,establishes the "five-star" relation model of risk immune detection subject,and conducts the five-dimensional analysis.(3)Based on biological immune response principle,the dissertation analyses the elements of the risk immune response of government investment large engineering projects,builds three lines of defence which are risk inherent quality of the self interference elimination,immune response and the adaptive immune response.Analyzes the risk detection,the activation of risk and risk to remove three stages of the process,using case-based reasoning and TOPSIS method to establish the risk contingency selection model.(4)Discusses the risk learning principle of government investment in large-scale engineering projects,the dissertation analzes risk elements of the immune learning,puts forward risk immune learning mode,expounds the process,and utilizes clonal selection algorithm to optimize the decision-making scheme to solve the update of emergency plan.Using the principle of reinforcement learning algorithm,the game model,to establish risk immune learning stakeholders game model and the Q learning algorithm,and use of cellular automata system carries on the simulation(5)Through the government investment in large engineering projects Yiyang to Loudi the background of the highway,the risk of using building immune detection mechanism,risk mechanism of immune response,immune learning mechanism,risk for actual operation of the project,verify the validity of the theory and method,and puts forward some countermeasures and SuggestionsThe innovative points of this dissertation are as follows.(1)To simulate the process of antigen processing and presentation and identification of biological immunity,establishes the model and algorithm of risk immune detection threshold for government investment large engineering projects,and discusses the generation and operation of risk immune detector.(2)In order to select the best emergency plan for risk,based on the two response methods of biological immunization,a risk-innate immune response model and an adaptive immune response model are constructed for government investment large engineering projects.(3)The clonal selection algorithm is used to optimize the decision scheme to achieve the continuous update of the risk emergency response plan database.Based on the immune learning principle of the biological immune system,the risk immune learning mechanism of large project project is established.