Research On The Risk Sharing And Assessment In The Renegotiation Of Infrastructure PPP Projects

Infrastructure PPP projects usually belong to large-scale projects involving multiple participants,with large investment amounts,relatively long concession periods as well as lengthy investment return periods.At the meantime,there are a variety of risk factors and uncertainties throughout whole-of-life cycle of the project.Based on these characteristics,when signing a PPP contract,it is difficult for both the government and the private investors to foresee all the problems that will occur in the operation and management stages of the project.When a risk event that cannot be effectively foreseen occurs during the implementation process,it is sometimes difficult for the contract stakeholders to deal with the risk effectively,and at this time,one of the stakeholders may propose to renegotiate the reallocation of risks.Different from the first risk allocation when the project contract is signed,renegotiation mainly resolves whether the allocated risks have changed beyond the agreement or whether there are unidentified risks,and redistributes them,which is the secondary risk of the PPP project distribution.At present,China has become the world's largest PPP market,but the quality of the projects in the market varies.Against the background of a low PPP contract signing rate and operating rate,pseudo-PPP projects using PPP to disguise financing are constantly being produced.The deviation of the project from the nature of PPP has led to endless risks in the actual implementation process.Change risks are unavoidable and project progress is severely hindered.Therefore,there is an urgent need to establish a reasonable and feasible fair sharing mechanism for the risks in the renegotiation of PPP projects,improve the efficiency of the construction and implementation of infrastructure PPP projects,and promote the sustainable development of PPP projects.This study addresses the complex and changeable risk factors of infrastructure PPP projects throughout the life cycle.First,a risk sharing game model for infrastructure PPP projects is constructed,and the game model is used to rationally allocate risks to the renegotiation stage of PPP projects.The optimal risk sharing ratio is obtained.Secondly,the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and Monte Carlo simulation method are used to evaluate and analyze the risk sharing results of the above-mentioned renegotiation of the PPP project.The key risk factors are analyzed to obtain the degree of impact of the risk factors on the project value.Effectively control the risks that cause project changes,provide scientific decision-making basis for decision makers to choose the best solution,reduce unnecessary renegotiation and reduce its negative impact,and improve the implementation efficiency and efficiency of infrastructure PPP projects.With this as the research goal,the following research work has been carried out in this thesis.(1)Research on infrastructure projects,sort out the current development status of PPP models in China,analyze the main challenges faced by current PPP projects and propose preliminary solutions.Clarify the contract management mode of PPP projects,comprehensively identify and analyze the risk factors of PPP projects,systematically sort out the renegotiation process of risk sharing based on the risk sharing principles of PPP projects,and establish a preliminary risk sharing mechanism for infrastructure PPP projects.(2)Explore the gameplay of risk sharing and renegotiation of infrastructure PPP projects,determine the main types of dynamic cooperative games with incomplete information on infrastructure PPP projects,and use game methods to calculate project risks for different types of renegotiation involving different parties Share the optimal proportion: When renegotiation takes place between two participants,the two parties are engaged in a dynamic bargaining game with incomplete information.When renegotiation involves more than two parties,a multiplayer collational game is used to establish models,with the objective of maximizing overall benefits as the goal of the alliance game,and determining the optimal risk sharing ratio for infrastructure PPP projects.(3)Perform risk sharing evaluation and analysis on the results of project renegotiation,and take the operational status,benefit impact,sustainability,and partnership of the project as the dimensions of risk sharing evaluation after renegotiation.By establishing a fuzzy hierarchy analysis model,the problem itself decomposition according to layers to form a bottom-up hierarchical structure.By constructing a cash flow discount model for PPP project risk sharing evaluation,Monte Carlo method is used to evaluate and simulate the risk and obtain the risk factors on the project value.The degree of influence provides scientific decision-making basis for decision makers to choose the best solution.Develop PPP project renegotiation process management software,standardize the PPP project renegotiation operation process,and provide guidance for PPP contract design and renegotiation practice.(4)Through case analysis,verify the effectiveness of the model,select numerical examples and actual cases to verify the model simulation,and finally put forward countermeasures and recommendations for the rationalization of risk sharing of infrastructure PPP projects,and propose specific measures for renegotiation of PPP projects.The strategy provides theoretical basis and important reference for the decisionmaking of the government and the private investors,proposes countermeasures and suggestions to evade the speculative behavior of the private investors,and helps to create a good and orderly development PPP environment.The research innovations of this thesis include:(1)Took the lead in establishing a risk sharing framework covering different levels of infrastructure PPP projects,deepened the understanding of the risk sharing process in the renegotiation of projects,and provided a benchmark reference for risk disposal in the event of renegotiation of infrastructure PPP projects.(2)In view of the more complex structure of participants in PPP projects in China,a game model of two-player and multi-player risk sharing was proposed for different participants involved in the renegotiation,providing a decision-making method of risk sharing and a basis for risk avoidance for both public and private sectors.(3)Standardized the existing renegotiation operation process of PPP projects,built a systematic and standardized management and analysis platform for the whole process of renegotiation,provided guidance for future PPP contract design and renegotiation practice,and offered theoretical basis for government decision-making.