Research On The Consumption Chang Of The Retired Urban Residents

Nowadays,China is facing serious problems in an aging society.In 2019,the population aged65 and above reached 176 million,accounting for 13% of the total population,exceeding the international standard of 7%.Meanwhile,China is also facing the problems of insuffient household consumption.Affected by the epidemic situation in 2020,Chinese economy is more complex and changable,and the domestic economic development model with the background of dual-circulation is graduallly established.Retirement is the landmark for the urban residents to begin the old age life.The consumption of retired residents has become an important part of Chinese household consumption and played an important role in the social and economic development.Therefore it is important to study the impact of retirement on the consumption of urban residents,which helps understand the characteristics of retired residents and stimulate the consumption vitality.According to the life cycle hypothesis,the rational economic men will smooth his consumption in his whole life.Retirement will not lead to a sharp drop in consumption.However,the schorlars have found the opposite phenomenon,which is called ‘ the puzzle of retirement consumption’.According to the consumption economics and the labor economics,this dissertation focuses on the following studies: whether the retirement has a serious impact on Chinese urban residents’ consumption,constructs the mechanism of the impact of retirement on urban residents’ consumption,empirically tests the impact effect based on micro and macro perspectives,and puts forward suggestions from the perspective of boosting retired residents’ consumption.The main mission of this dissertation is to explore the influences and mechanism of retirement on the urban household consumption.It mainly focuses on the fowllowing aspects.Firstly,it constructs the overall research frame: literature review—basic analysis—mechanism—empirical test—policy reconmmendations.Secondly,it constructs the mechanisum framework which tells the impact of retirement on Chinese urban household consumption.On one hand,it analyses the influencing factors from the micro perspective of individuals and families,such as consumption demand,consumption level and consumption structure.On the other hand,it analysee the influencing factors from the macro perspective of the country and society,such as industrial structure,employment and labor supply,income and wealth.Finally,it puts forwards policy suggenstions according to the empirical analysis and our country’s actual situation,such as expanding the retired household consumption,developing silver economy and actively dealing with the aging population.There are seven chapters in this disseratation.The first chapter is the introduction.It mainly introduces the background and significance,objectives and content,the technical route and innovation and points out the further research direction.The second chapter is the literature review.It reviews the literature of the consumption theory,retirement consumption puzzle,population factors and household consumption,which provides the basis and support for the following research.The third chapter is to analyse the current situation.It elaborates the development and characteristics of Chinese retirement systems,macro and micro household consumption and elderly residents’ consumption.It explores the interactive change based on the time distribution and analyse the influence relationship between the retirement and the consumption.The forth chapter is the theoretical analysis.It analyses the impact mechanism of retirement on urban household consumption,and the important factors includes the income change,consumption supply,consumption damand and wealth accumulation.At the micro level,the retirement will lead to changes in lifestyle,health status and family status of urban residents,as well as changes in consumption demand,consumption level and consumption structure.At the macro level,the retirement will lead to changes in labor supply,income and wealth,as well as changes in industrial structures and consumption.The fifth chapter is the micro empirical tests.Based on CHFS 2017,it uses the fuzzy RDD and draws the following the conclusion: The retirement leads to slight changes in the total consumption and the total consumption increases slightly.Daily and health consumption increases significantly,such as food,medical treatment and tourism.Working related consumption,domestic service and entertainment consumption decrease significantly.The consumption structures are adjusted.The impact mechanism study finds that the retirement has an impact on the income security,real estate and consumption demand,thus causing changes in household consumtion.The sixth chapter is the macro empirical test.Based on the macro provincial panel data from year 2005 to 2018,it makes the macro empirical analysis and draws the conclusions as the following: Firstly,the retirement has a negative inhibitory effect on the total consumption,which means the retirement causes the consumption decline according to the static and dynamic panel data.Secondly,the retirement causes the changes of consumption structures according to static and dyanamic panel data.The retirement has a negative effect which means the retirement causes the decline of the basic living security consumption.Thirdly,the income has a partial mediating effect to the retirement consumption.The retirement leads to the changes of income,which in turn affects the changes of consumption.The seventh chapter is the policy recommendations.It puts forwards the suggestions such as expanding the household consumption of retired residents and boosting the economic development according to the dual-circualiton background.