Urban Housing Prices And Upgrading Of Household Consumption Structure

The upgrade of consumption structure is a hot issue under the socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era.However,in recent years,the upgrade of China's consumption structure has been slow,and housing prices have continued to rise.According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics,from 2004 to 2013,the Engel coefficient of urban households fell from 37.66% to only 35%,that is,only a drop of 2.66% in 10 years,and the proportion of developmental consumption and enjoyment consumption from 33.48% Only rose to 34.1%,that is,only a 0.62%increase in 10 years.Since the reform of the housing system,China's housing prices have continued to rise,especially since 2003,housing prices have soared.Between1998 and 2017,the average sales price of commercial housing increased by 262%.Unfortunately,research on the impact of rising housing prices on the upgrading of consumption structure at home and abroad is still very immature.This article uses the Urban Household Survey(UHS)data from 2010 to 2012,combining theory with empirical evidence,constructing a benchmark model and interactive item model,and a method of sub-sample regression to discuss the direction and size of the impact of housing prices on the consumption structure,and the mechanism of impact.And the impact of heterogeneity,and the following research conclusions are obtained: First,from the regression results of the benchmark model,it can be obtained that rising house prices will inhibit the upgrade of the consumption structure.A 100% increase in house prices will increase the proportion of surviving consumption by an average of 3%,while the proportion of developmental consumption and the share of enjoyment of consumption will decline by an average of1.5% and 1.2%,respectively.Second,the regression results from the interactive term model show that,Households with unmarried sons,housing loans,and working in state-owned enterprises,rising house prices have a stronger inhibitory effect on their consumption structure upgrades.Combined with relevant theoretical analysis,it can be obtained that house price rises will pass budget constraint effects,substitution effects,and liquidity constraint effects And the four mechanisms of preventive saving effect affect household consumption structure;Third,from the results of sub-sample regression,we can see that the impact of rising house prices on different cities,income households,and consumption types is different.Rising house prices have theleast inhibitory effect on upgrading the consumption structure of households in third-tier cities,and have the strongest inhibitory effect on upgrading the consumption structure of low-income households.And rising house prices will reduce the proportion of medical and health care consumption and entertainment consumption.Therefore,combined with the research conclusions of this article,this article puts forward appropriate policy recommendations on how to promote the upgrading of residents' consumption structure.First,the government should control house prices,so as to eliminate the factors that inhibit the upgrading of the consumption structure;second,the government should control the rent and increase the income of residents,thereby reducing the living cost of renting families,releasing the consumption potential of low-income families,making renting families and low-income families There is sufficient budget to upgrade the consumption structure;finally,banks should appropriately relax the conditions of secondary mortgages on housing and ease the liquidity constraints of mortgage-backed households,thereby stimulating them to upgrade their consumption structure.