The Policy Attribute Of China Export Credit Insurance And The Effect To Export Trade

Export is an important part of a country's economy.Export credit insurance,by diversifying and transferring risks for export companies,strongly supports the development of a country's export trade,while promoting economic growth and increasing employment.Export credit insurance has become an important policy tool for the development of countries around the world,including China.According to data from the Berne Union,in 2018 alone,export credit insurance supported US $ 2.5 trillion in global exports and investments,accounting for 13%of global cross-border trade and services.China is a large manufacturing and trading country in the world,and exports are of great significance to China's overall economic growth and employment.Since China resumed its export credit insurance system in 1988,the annual underwriting amount has increased from 105 million US dollars to 609.8 billion US dollars in 2019.Based on China's export volume of 17.23 trillion RMB in 2019,export credit insurance accounts for 24.8% of the export value,which is far exceeding the global average level.In the practical development of our country,the government attaches great importance to export credit insurance.From 2009 to2019,the report on the work of the State Council has mentioned the export credit insurance eight times for the fifth consecutive year.The government hopes to use this policy tool to expand the coverage of export credit insurance,promote the stability and quality of foreign trade,and promote the diversification of export markets.However,in terms of theoretical research,research on export credit insurance is mostly focused on western developed countries.In practice,at the end of the last century,the privatization trend of some parts of export credit insurance business appeared.Therefore,there has been contention and exploration on the policy and commercialization choices,model arrangements,and corresponding effects of export credit insurance.This article combines China's conditions,systems,and practices to focus on the policy attributes of export credit insurance.This article hopes to clarify the causes,characteristics,and mechanism of policy through research,and to provide policy recommendations for export credit insurance.This article focuses on the policy attributes of export credit insurance.Through literature review,using policy financial theory and prospect theory,the theoretical analysis of constructing an evolutionary game model and empirical tests based on China's national conditions are used to analyze the impact of policy export credit insurance on international trade mechanism.The specific content is divided into 9 chapters and three parts.The first part is asking the question.This article reviews the policy nature of export credit insurance and the theoretical and practical basis for its impact on export trade,including the introduction in Chapter 1 and the literature review in Chapter 2.Chapter 1,"Introduction".By comparing the development of export credit insurance at home and abroad with international trade,the question of the relationship between the policy attributes of export credit insurance and its policy objectives to promote export trade is raised.Chapter 2," Definition of Conceptual Categories and Theory of Policy Causes ".Define the key areas of export credit insurance.Combining the research results of Chinese and foreign scholars on export credit insurance,from the perspective of policy financial instruments,summing up theories including market defect theory,risk perception theory,public product theory,policy instrument theory,and legalization of export subsidies.Study the policy nature of export credit insurance and its impact on export trade,and build a theoretical basis for subsequent research.The second part is to research the question.A comprehensive study of the theory and practice on export credit insurance policy attributes,functions,operating models,and the effect mechanisms to export trade.Based on the theoretical analysis in Chapters 1 and 2,focus on the key policy objective of export credit insurance-to promote export trade,and explore the supply and demand balance of policy export credit insurance.A theoretical analysis is made,a model is constructed,and an empirical test is carried out.Chapters 3 and 4 focus on the policy attributes and functions of export credit insurance.Chapters 5 to 7address the issue of the effect mechanisms to export trade.Chapter 3," Facts and Evolution of Policy Attributes of Export Credit Insurance ".Comb the history of the development of export credit insurance in China and the world,analyze the changes and adjustments of the policy attributes of the export credit insurance under specific trade environments and development stages and study the internal laws reflected by it.Analyze the function of export credit insurance,and study the internal mechanism of promoting foreign trade export and export credit insurance policy.Discuss the operation mode of China's policy export credit insurance.Chapter 4," The Policy Basis of Export Credit Insurance:Analysis Based on Supply and Demand Perspective ".This chapter analyzes the promotion effect of export credit insurance on foreign trade exports from the perspective of market equilibrium.This chapter raises the paradox of market equilibrium for export credit insurance.From the perspective of supply and demand,analyze the economic characteristics of the export credit insurance market equilibrium.Put forward the necessity and possibility of government intervention,and study the mechanism of its policy attributes in the market.Chapter 5," The Impact of Policy-based Export Credit Insurance on Export Trade: From the Perspective of Evolutionary Games ".Based on the prospect theory,a evolution game model of international trade including insurance companies,export companies,overseas buyers,and governments was constructed.There are particularities of risk and risk perception in the export trade of enterprises.Through model derivation,analyze how the government and insurance companies use policy-based export credit insurance to achieve the impact of transaction equilibrium and promote the realization of export trade development policy goals.Chapter 6," The Impact of Policy-based Export Credit Insurance on Export Trade: Evidence from China ".Analyze the dual characteristics of China's trade,compare the differences in the mechanism of export credit insurance under different trade models,and put forward research hypotheses and construct models to verify the difference in the impact of export credit insurance on different trade models.At the same time,the value and role of export credit insurance for industrial upgrading are explored in the context of China's special international trade development environment.The third part is to solve the question.This part is the final policy advice and outlook,answering the question of how policy-based export credit insurance develops.Chapter 7," Risk Change and Policy Adjustment under the New Pattern of International Trade".This chapter analyzes the changes in the risks of international trade and the needs of enterprises,and discusses the development of policy-oriented export credits in light of changes in the current new international trade pattern.Based on the development opportunities of China's policy export credit insurance,this chapter puts forward the prospects for future development,and proposes the future research directions for policy export credit insurance.According to the above research ideas and framework,through theoretical analysis and empirical test,the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:1.The policy attribute of export credit insurance is related to the risks and functions it undertakes.Export credit insurance has the function of promoting export trade,which in turn can promote a country's economic development,increase employment,and balance of payments.Therefore,from the establishment of a policy-based export credit insurance system,the policy attribute runs through development.The degree of policy exertion is highly related to the global macro-risk situation and the risk situation of different countries.Counter-cyclical regulation is a key area of its policy manifestation.2.The functions of policy export credit insurance can be divided into basic functions,core functions,and extended functions.The most critical aspect of policy reflection is the core function of promoting exports.This function works at both the micro and macro levels,and achieves specific policy goals through the realization of basic functions.3.Without the government's intervention,export credit insurance will have a market equilibrium paradox,which is not conducive to the promotion of export promotion policy goals.The evolutionary game model shows that in order to better guide the market equilibrium between enterprises and overseas buyers through the market mechanism,it is necessary for insurance institutions to increase compensation levels and reduce insurance rates.The necessary government involvement can better achieve the goal of promoting exports.4.China's international trade has dual characteristics,and export credit insurance has a more significant role in promoting general trade.During the sample period,each increase of 100 million yuan in export credit insurance premiums will affect the average growth of general trade exports by 12.1%,the total export volume by 8.3%,and the processing trade exports by 6.4%.It shows that if the trade patterns are accurately distinguished,the marginal impact of export credit insurance will increase by 45.6%.At the same time,these effects have non-linear threshold effect characteristics.Based on problem-oriented and empirical analysis,this article has carried out theoretical and practical research with a certain degree of exploration and innovation,and has drawn some conclusions with certain theoretical innovation value and practical guiding significance.The main innovations of this article are reflected in three aspects:1.Using the risk perception theory and policy finance theory,we systematically analyze the policy issues of export credit insurance.The main line of the research in this paper is around the policy attributes,and from the perspective of policy causes,attributes,functions,mechanisms and effects,the research on the policy of export credit insurance is carried out.This article focuses on two key aspects of the policy nature of export credit insurance:the particularity of risk and the particularity of function.This article explores the policy role of export credit insurance from the two areas of promoting export trade and optimizing the structure of export trade,establishing a new research perspective and broadening the research field.2.Based on the framework of risk perception theory and evolutionary game theory,the role of export credit insurance in improving the game equilibrium between the two parties in international trade is analyzed.This paper introduces the risk perception theory and evolutionary game method to the research of export credit insurance for the first time.An evolutionary game model of the equilibrium of international trade between export companies and overseas buyers was constructed with the participation of governments and insurance companies.This article analyzes the risk perception of export companies in international trade,explores the impact of defaults by overseas buyers on trade,and studies the mechanism and path of the impact of policy-based export credit insurance on the evolution of international trade.3.Combining the dual characteristics of China's export trade,it has expanded the research area of export credit insurance policy,distinguished the internal mechanism of different trade models,and carried out an empirical analysis.This article first distinguished between general trade and processing trade when discussing the role of export credit insurance in pulling exports.This paper explores the differences between the transmission mechanism of export credit insurance on different trade models from both theoretical and empirical perspectives,and expands the research field.Based on China's practice,it provides new strong evidence for developing countries to use export credit insurance to promote the optimization of trade structure.The shortcomings of this article are mainly as follows:1.The research of policy export credit insurance involves policy finance,international trade and other fields.This article has made a preliminary exploration and attempt.Because the author's own theoretical foundation and theoretical level are limited,the combination and research of export credit insurance and international trade theory is still insufficient.2.Although this article has tried to make an empirical analysis of the impact of policy-based export credit insurance on general trade and borrowed the results of existing research at home and abroad,but in terms of variable selection and model construction,it is still not sufficiently constrained by data sources and lacks cross-border comparisons.The science and completeness still need to be further improved.It is believed that with the further improvement of future data,the research results will be more accurate,and the interpretation ability and reference value will be further improved.