Research On The Non-linear Impact Of Export Credit Insurance On Export Trade

Over the past 40-year reform and opening up,China's export trade has been developing rapidly.The export volume has increased from US$20.64 billion in 1979 to US$2.49 trillion in 2018,which has increased by 120.6 times.Meanwhile,the contribution of the continuous development of export trade to China's economic growth has been growing too.However,with the continuous development of export trade,the risks of different kinds enterprises are often faced with in the process of international trade definitely pose a great threat to the operation and development of enterprises.Based on this situation,a non-profit policy insurance business whose risks are funded by national finances is set up to promote domestic exports and foreign investment,and the legitimate rights and interests of exporters and investors from losses as well.The policy insurance called export credit insurance can be used to control risks,improve payment behavior,and resolve information asymmetry in international transactions.Through the practical experience of major countries at home and abroad trade,it can be concluded that export credit insurance can promote the development of export trade to a certain extent,especially the counter-cyclical impact in the period of financial crisis and global economic downturn.Based on the background above,this paper takes China's exports to the United States as a research object and analyzes whether the export credit insurance can affect China's export trade.First of all,previous scholars used the linear model and panel data to analyze the influence of export credit insurance on export trade.However,some foreign scholars have found that there is an asymmetrical relationship between the two factors.Therefore,this paper introduces an improved nonlinear model to construct the empirical model of this paper.Second,the traditional nonlinear model parameter estimation methods have defects.Therefore,this paper proposes a grid-particle swarm optimization algorithm,and compares the algorithm results with the results of the current mainstream grid search algorithm.The results show that the proposed meshparticle swarm optimization algorithm is better than the grid search algorithm,which finds the feasibility of the algorithm verified.On this basis,China's export credit insurance premiums and claims from 2006 to 2018 are used as explanatory variables.China's exports to the United States during the same period are used as explanatory variables,and the two control variables of exchange rates and production cost are introduced.At the same time,the virtual variable of trade war is referred.Using a nonlinear model,the writer studies the nonlinear effects between export credit insurance and export trade.The empirical research shows that the model set in this paper has passed all the model tests and the fitting effect is better,and the mechanism of the transfer function is smoother.Therefore,the nonlinear model can explain the export credit insurance to the export better than the linear model.The mechanism of action of trade.First of all,the export credit insurance policy tool has a significant role in promoting export trade,but there are differences in the promotion role in different periods.Secondly,from the perspective of economics,the model set in this paper also more accurately depicts the volatility of export trade.There is a nonlinear and asymmetric effect between the two factors,which is also in line with the theory of transfer effect in economics.Thirdly,through the analysis of specific periods,it can be concluded that the export credit insurance has a non-linear effect on export trade under the conditions of economic depression,reverse globalization and trade protection,and this effect is positive.Finally,this paper proposes specific policy recommendations from the perspective of export credit insurance.