Export Credit Insurance In Our Country The Promoting Effect Research Of Export Trade

Year2011is not only the10th anniversary for China’s accession to WTO, but also the foundation of China export credit insurance company which is the only one policy export credit insurance (ECI) institution. In ten years, the policy of ECI achieved a leap-forward development as an important financial instrument to support the development of foreign trade, together with China becoming the1st export country and2nd import country. After entering the era of post-crisis, world economic recovery is facing structural adjustment predicament. European and American debt crisis is still spreading as well as protectionism is growing.ECI of our country starts late. It is only23years that is applied to the trade of our country. After2009financial crisis, it was taken seriously and paid more attention. This paper maily refers to literature research method, historical analysis method, case study method, model and econometric method, which explain the mechanism of ECI as well as a quantitative research on trade promotion. Research shows that ECI has certain stimulative promotion effect on export both in "quantity" and "quality". The paper chooses our country1989～2011annual export credit insurance and export trade data, using cointegration theory as the foundation, and then constructs an ECM model,which explains that there is a stable cointegration relationship between them and ECI short-term changes will do positive effect on export; Short-term disequilibrium of errors on export and ECI can modify the next year’s export trade and produce effective reversed correction function. Granger test is used to detect causality between ECI and export. In addition, this paper describes ECI to some extent which can promote "quality" of export, not only can optimize trade structure of export commodities but the trade geographical distribution. Trade market will gradually diversify which can upgrade export trade, to some extent, can reduce excessive dependence on traditional market. In the long term, it will be helpful for our trade safety.The paper can be looked as a deep extension on the basis of previous studies characterized by several innovations as the following: Firstly, choosing the most essential part"promote" as the subject of ECI, which can avoid former broad and deep research on this issue. In the paper, promotion mechanism of ECI is explained by economics analysis and a basic framework is established that constraints ECI. In this way, practices of ECI have been displayed focally and comprehensively.Secondly, using year1989～2011full development data to cover the deficiency of past data which are difficult to obtain. Starting from the object ECI, the paper modifies the variable"export" instead of total exports "which eliminates the effects "processing trade" and other trade so as to improve the analysis validity.Thirdly, extending research methods by constructing dynamic ECM model to study the data generation process. With application of ECM model to quantitative analysis of ECI, short term trade fluctuations and long term equilibrium are displayed.Fourthly, examining the"quality"by two indicators on the export promotion of ECI, which is an objective assessment of Chinese ECI promoting export.