Study On The Demand Prediction And Stockpile Strategy Of Living Supplies For Natural Disaster

China is one of the countries most severely affected(in terms of frequency and damage)by natural disasters.The proper resettlement and basic livelihood security of the affected people is one of the most important concerns of the Party and the people,of which the living emergency material are an important supply basis for this work.In order to guarantee the type,quantity and timeliness of disaster relief response of living materials,it is necessary to measure the response demand of living emergency materials after the disaster and stock living emergency materials before the disaster;the stockpiling strategy before the disaster affects the timeliness of the guarantee,and the reserve quantity needs to be measured and the reserve strategy needs to be considered in advance.Therefore,this study conducts a systematic and in-depth study on the demand measurement and stockpiling strategy decision of natural disaster living materials,including the following research contents.(1)Research on the screening of living emergency materials.In view of the complexity of natural disaster types and the diversity of living material types,the types of natural disasters and natural environment scenarios are used as key factors to analyze the types of living materials needed for natural disasters,and to obtain the types of living materials needed for different natural disaster types and natural environment scenarios.(2)Research on the demand population size prediction and response demand calculation of living emergency materials for natural disasters.In view of the uncertainty,complexity and information incompleteness of natural disasters,an intuitionistic fuzzy case inference method is proposed to predict the population size of demand for subsistence emergency materials,and an intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic terminology set and new case similarity calculation methods are introduced to increase the accuracy of the prediction method.The validity of the prediction method is also evaluated.A case study and experimental evaluation are proposed,based on the proposed method,a solution for the population size of the demand for subsistence emergency supplies for a new natural disaster is obtained,and also evaluate the effectiveness of the prediction method.A calculation method is developed to calculate the response needs of living emergency supplies,and the response needs of each living emergency supply under different natural disaster response levels are obtained based on the proposed method,which helps natural disaster relief decision makers to understand the needs clearly and make quick decisions.(3)To determine the optimal stockpiling strategy for each type of emergency materials under the demand.A method is constructed to measure the national stockpile demand for emergency supplies.The performance measurement model of the stockpiling strategy is constructed based on the deprivation cost theory of quantifying human suffering.Finally,this study developed a case analysis,the optimal stockpiling strategy under the deterministic demand of subsistence emergency supplies is obtained.For the nonperishable materials,the combination of multiple stockpile modes is not the best choice under the deterministic demand.(4)To study the optimal stockpiling strategy for each emergency material under uncertain demand.Based on the estimation of the reserve demand,the performance measurement model of the stockpiling strategy of living emergency materials under uncertain demand is constructed based on the deprivation cost theory of quantifying human suffering considering the demand change after the disaster.Finally,the optimal stockpiling strategy of subsistence emergency supplies under uncertain demand is obtained by carrying out case analysis.For example,for non-perishable materials,enterprise production stockpiles style can not be used as a single way to stock certain materials.