Research On Allocation Strategy Of First Batch Of Emergency Materials After Disasters

Earthquake is one of the most destructive natural disasters in the world, which has a frequent occurrence and is difficult to prevent from. In order to minimize damages caused by earthquakes, a set of emergency response mechanism for earthquake disaster should be founded in the whole of society. Emergency logistics system, which has the core of emergency materials, is the most important part in the mechanism.After the earthquake, there are many affected areas with different degrees of vulnerability and different demand levels for emergency materials. So, how to balance efficiency and equity when allocating the first batch of emergency materials is an actual problem for deciders. Such a problem should be considered not only for the purpose of delivering the aid to the affected areas as quickly as possible, but also allocating the matching materials to the affected areas according to the the situation of the disaster. Once the allocation of first batch of emergency supplies is inappropriate, then profound effects would be left to those affected areas, such as a unstable, turbulent social order, a sharp increase in casualties and so on.On the background of earthquake emergency logistics system, this thesis takes the allocation of the first batch of emergency materials after disasters as research content, puts forward a three-step allocation strategy for the first batch of emergency materials after disasters based on―demand forecasting---cluster analysis---materials allocation‖. The essential points are as follows:First, through explaining and analyzing the issue of emergency materials demand forecasting by analogy with classic safety stock theory, we design a demand forecasting model of daily consuming emergency materials for earthquake-stricken regions, which is based on number of survivals and the classical theory of safety stock.Second, we choose a couple of stricken properties of each affected area as the basis of grouping and exert cluster analysis theory based on fuzzy equivalence matrixes to finish grouping for all affected areas. Third, according to the result of emand forecasting and cluster analysis, by setting certain rules, we allocate emergency materials to all affected areas in groups, finally which maxmize satisfaction rate of emergency materials in and between groups.Fourth, on the ground of 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake happened in China in 2008, this thesis takes 13 severely stricken towns choosing from Beichuan,Wenchuan and Mao County in Sichuan Province as example, verifies the validity and usefulness of the three-step allocation strategy.