Research On The Soybean Producer Subsidy Policy Reform And The Response Of Farmers' Production Behavior

For a long time,the main contradiction in China's agricultural development is the increasing living needs of the people and the insufficient food supply.However,with the progress of technology and the reform and development of agricultural system,the grain production gradually turns from the insufficient total supply to the redundant structural supply.A typical example is the continuous growth of grain yield from 2003 to 2015,but the problem caused by distorted planting structure became prominent.It has seen a rapid increase of corn area but a sharp decrease of soybean area.In order to alleviate the problem of crop structure distortion,China began to implement agricultural supply-side structural reform in 2016,and explored the soybean purchase and storage system reform in the following year,that is,in 2017,the soybean target price system was changed to implement the same producer subsidy policy as that of corn.Coordinating he subsidy mechanism of soybean and corn and taking into account of the price ratio of soybean and corn,much higher subsidy for soybean helped achieve the purpose of "increasing soybean and reducing corn".However,it is well known that China's soybean has no comparative advantage.Based on the long-term consideration of the food security strategy in the new era,the soybean production area should not be increased excessively,and more land share should be provided for grain ration.So in the long run,China's soybean revitalization or should be limited on the land to improve the efficiency of output.Then,can the soybean producer subsidy policy reform improve the planting structure of soybean and corn(short-term goal)and increase the total factor productivity level of soybean(long-term goal)? What are the influencing mechanisms behind it? How to promote the current and future soybean policy to exert positive "planting structure adjustment effect" and "productivity effect" ? Answering these questions has important practical significance for promoting agricultural supply-side structural reform,improving the current soybean producer subsidy policy and promoting soybean revitalization plan.Based on the theories of farmers' behavior and neoclassical economic growth,this paper constructs the theoretical analysis framework of "policy incentive behavior response",analyzes the changes of farmers' planting structure adjustment and soybean total factor productivity under the background of soybean producer subsidy policy reform from the macro and micro levels,and investigates farmers' influence on soybean producer subsidy policy from the perspective of farmers responsiveness.To be specific,firstly,the thinking and effect of the adjustment of China's grain price support policy were sorted out,the logic of the transition from soybean target price system to producer subsidy policy was analyzed,and the two policies were compared,which laid a foundation for the research in the following paper.Secondly,based on the equilibrium analysis of policy principle,this paper uses the macro panel data of446 counties from 2013 to 2018 to construct the propensity score matching difference in difference model(psm-did).Specifically,following the analysis idea of "policy incentive-comparative income change-planting structure adjustment",this paper examines the impact of soybean producer subsidy policy reform on Farmers' planting structure adjustment,and discusses the major problems The limitation of subsidy policy for soybean producers;Thirdly,based on the theories of neoclassical economic growth,this paper uses the macro panel data of 446 counties from 2013 to 2018 to construct the super efficiency data envelopment model(SE-DEA)and the propensity score matching difference in difference model(psm-did).Specifically,along the analysis path of "policy incentives-changes in factor allocation-changes in total factor productivity",this paper investigates the impact of soybean producer subsidy policy reform on the macro economy Secondly,we test the direct and indirect impact paths;Fourthly,based on the micro survey data of Heilongjiang Province and Jilin Province from 2018 to 2020,this paper constructs super efficiency data envelopment model(SE-DEA)and instrumental variable quantile regression model(IVQR)to re test the impact of soybean producers' subsidy policy reform on Farmers' production behavior,and analyzes different planting structure levels,different total factor productivity levels and different business entities The heterogeneity was investigated;Finally,starting from soybean farmers' cognition of soybean producer subsidy policy,the analysis framework of policy cognition-expectation and reality deviation-policy satisfaction was constructed,and the multivariate ordered Probit model and multivariate ordered Logit model were used to empirically analyze farmers' evaluation of policy satisfaction.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The reform of subsidy policy for soybean producers is in line with the development requirements of the times.From the perspective of policy conception and design,the original intention of the policy is to expand the soybean planting area,adjust the soybean and corn planting structure,improve the farmers' planting income outside the market mechanism,reduce the market price and cause distortion,which is in line with the development of many times,such as the marketization transformation of China's grain price support policy,the structural reform of agricultural supply side and the revitalization of soybean requirement.(2)The soybean producer subsidy policy reform can significantly promote the adjustment of farmers' planting structure,but the sustainability is not strong.Due to the improvement of the expected relative income of soybean planting,the reform of soybean producer subsidy policy can promote farmers to adjust the planting structure,but the adjustment effect is not sustainable due to the reasons of farmers' path dependence on corn planting,subsidy dislocation,unreasonable increase of land rent and the unsatisfactory relative price of soybean and corn.(3)The reform of soybean producer subsidy policy promoted the effective improvement of soybean total factor productivity,but there was significant temporal heterogeneity.The reform of soybean producer subsidy policy can significantly improve soybean total factor productivity in 2017,but it is not effective to improve soybean total factor productivity in 2018.The reason for the heterogeneity is that the soybean producer subsidy policy does not bring effective income incentive,and the wealth level and market distortion are not conducive to improve the enthusiasm of soybean farmers to improve the allocation of production factors.(4)The soybean producer subsidy policy can optimize the planting structure and improve the soybean total factor productivity to a certain extent,but there are great differences among different farmers.Specifically,the lower or higher the proportion of soybean planting in a farmer's family,the more unfavorable the reform of producer subsidy policy is to stimulate the enthusiasm of the family to increase soybean planting.Producer subsidy policy has a greater effect on farmers with low TFP and high TFP;Soybean producer subsidy policy can only promote the adjustment of planting structure of ordinary farmers and family farms?type,but the effect is not good for family farms?type.And with the expansion of land scale,the effect of policy adjustment of planting structure is decreasing.Soybean producer subsidy policy can only improve the soybean total factor productivity of new business entity,and the improvement degree of soybean total factor productivity of family farms?type is significantly stronger than that of family farms?type.In addition,the research also found that the reason for the adjustment of the type I planting structure of family farm is not the increase of soybean planting proportion,but the decrease of total management scale.The current soybean producer subsidy policy reform may not benefit the development of soybean scale.(5)Soybean farmers have a higher degree of cognition to soybean producer subsidy policy,but a lower degree of cognition to policy objectives.The higher the awareness degree of soybean farmers to the subsidy standard of soybean producer subsidy policy,the higher their satisfaction degree to the policy;The stronger the soybean farmers' willingness to optimize the planting structure,the higher their satisfaction with the policy;The farmers who tend to improve the allocation level of soybean production factors have almost nothing to do with the policy satisfaction,which means that the incentive effect of soybean producer subsidy policy on farmers' improvement of soybean total factor productivity is insufficient.Soybean farmers know more about soybean producer subsidy policy,but less about the specific content of soybean producer subsidy policy.Soybean farmers in Heilongjiang Province have a better understanding of soybean producer subsidy policy than those in Jilin Province.When soyabean/corn subsidies were increased,soyabean farmers were more likely to spend money on increasing soyabean production levels than on expanding soyabean acreage.The willingness of farmers to expand soybean area in Heilongjiang Province was obviously stronger than that in Jilin Province,while the willingness of farmers to increase soybean output level was almost the same except Siping City.There are three main reasons for the sample farmers to plant soybean: crop rotation,planting habit and policy support;Soybean farmers were relatively satisfied with the subsidy standard,subsidy issuing time,declaration method and distribution method of soybean producer subsidy policy,but not satisfied with the policy publicity.In addition to the producer subsidy policy,the three main policy demands of soybean farmers are: financial credit support,agricultural information and technology promotion and land transfer service.Accordingly,the following policy suggestions were put forward: firstly,the policy goal of soybean producer subsidy policy should be based on the food security goal,especially to ensure the absolute security of ration.Although it is still an inevitable policy choice to restore soybean production and promote the adjustment of grain planting structure in the short term,in the long term,the soybean planting area should not increase excessively,and the goal of "expanding soybean range" should be gradually turned into "increasing efficiency".Secondly,the support mode of soybean should focus on the new business entity,and play the demonstration role of the new business entity to promote the large-scale production of soybean.Third,the soybean producer subsidy policy alone has limited effect on the continuous optimization of planting structure and improvement of soybean total factor productivity.In the future,the support mode for soybean should be shifted from the simple subsidy incentive to the diversified policy support.Finally,the long-term structural imbalance solidifies the agricultural production mode of farmers and increases the difficulty in the regulation and control of soybean producer subsidy policies.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the propaganda of policies,especially for aging farmers,to strengthen the understanding of the spirit of policies.