Research On The Macroeconomic Effect Of Fiscal Transfer Payment

Under the goal of establishing the socialist market economic system,the construction of the public finance system corresponding to it is also progressing steadily.As an important part of the public finance system,fiscal transfer payment plays an important role in making up the gap of local financial resources,balancing the gap of regional financial resources,realizing the equalization of basic public services,cooperating with the implementation of national policies and promoting institutional reform.With the ups and downs of economic situation at home and abroad,the fiscal transfer payment has become the national macroeconomic regulation and control important policy tools,after the financial crisis in 2008,in order to achieve the "growth" the goal,the country continues to implement the tax cuts Jiang Fei and expansion of government spending and positive fiscal policy,fiscal transfer payment scale also raised from 1.7325 trillion yuan in 2007 to 6.968 trillion yuan in 2018.However,the continuous upside down of revenue and expenditure growth leads to the increasing pressure of fiscal balance,and the use efficiency of fiscal funds has become an important issue facing the government.COVID advance on its 2020-19 outbreak that our country is facing unprecedented challenges,in response to the COVID-19 outbreak,the government implemented a more active for further fiscal and taxation policies,taken out vouchers,to reduce the enterprise contribution rate of social security subsidies,improving job training and unemployment benefits,setting up special transfer payment system such as financial transfer payment policy.Although these fiscal transfer payment policies and measures can help economic recovery,they also bring more severe challenges to fiscal sustainability.Meanwhile,they also highlight the urgency of "improving the quality" and "enhancing the efficiency" of fiscal transfer payment funds.In this context,the research on the macroeconomic effect of fiscal transfer payment is of great significance to improve the macro-control effect of policies and improve the use efficiency of fiscal transfer payment funds.Because of China's fiscal transfer payment function is to realize the equalization of basic public services,the academic study of fiscal transfer payment equalization effect,the study of its economic effect is less,in view of this,this article from consumption,investment and employment effects of fiscal transfer payment is studied in three aspects: the economic effect,and by building a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to deeply explore the economic effects of the transmission mechanism.In order to improve the quality and efficiency of fiscal transfer payment policy to put forward targeted policy recommendations.The reason why this paper investigates the consumption effect,investment effect and employment effect of fiscal transfer payment is based on the following three considerations: First,consumption,investment and employment are important and basic macroeconomic variables.If the whole macro economy is greatly simplified,it can be abstracted as the relationship among the three variables of consumption,investment and employment.That is to say,the minimalist national economic model can only contain the three most important economic variables of consumption,investment and employment.Second,consumption,investment and employment are also economic indicators that are widely followed by all sectors of society.After the COVID-19 epidemic,the government adopted a variety of policies and measures to stabilize the economy,and implemented the strategy of "boosting consumption and expanding investment effectively combine to promote each other" to expand domestic demand.Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood,ranking first in the "six stability" and "six guarantees".It is not only related to the operation of the entire national economy,but also related to the stability of the society.After the epidemic,the primary task of governments at all levels was to ensure the employment of residents and prevent large-scale systematic unemployment.Third,fiscal transfer payment is an important policy tool for macrocontrol.Although fiscal transfer payment itself is not a component of GNP,it can affect consumption,investment and employment in the economic system through the redistribution of fiscal funds,but the domestic academic circle has not made sufficient investigation on this aspect.The content of this paper is divided into seven chapters.The first chapter is the preface,which makes a preliminary introduction to the research of the paper.The second chapter is the theoretical basis of this paper.On the basis of defining the research scope of this paper,it analyzes the existence basis of the financial transfer payment system and the mechanism of its influence on consumption,investment and employment.The third chapter summarizes the main characteristics of China's financial transfer payment.This chapter expounds the characteristics and facts of fiscal transfer payment and macroeconomic regulation from three aspects of fiscal transfer payment(boosting consumption,expanding investment and promoting employment),so as to lay a realistic foundation for discussing the consumption effect,investment effect and employment effect of fiscal transfer payment.The fourth chapter studies the consumption effect of fiscal transfer payment,based on the results of linear regression model,this paper built a include ricardo,non-ricardo heterogeneity family dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,on this basis discusses the fiscal transfer payment consumption effect of the transmission mechanism,and the cash transfers and carries out a comparative analysis on the effect of the policy of coupons.The fifth chapter is the effects of fiscal transfer payment of investment research,using the panel vector autoregressive model,the empirical research on the investment effect of fiscal transfer payment and regional differences,and by building two regional dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of two levels of government from tax,government competition,externality and hard money supporting the influence of fiscal transfer payment mechanism is discussed.Effect on employment of fiscal transfer payment is the sixth chapter research,changes in employment in our country the basic facts and guaranteed employment policy based on the basic logic of built a contain dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of search and matching theory,in this framework,this paper discusses the lower contribution rate,increasing the central government to the local social security enterprise transfers subsidies,improving job training and unemployment benefits effect on employment of four jobs measures and its transmission mechanism,and under the same primary fiscal deficit effect on employment of the above-mentioned four jobs measures are analyzed in comparison.Chapter seven is the conclusion and policy suggestions of this paper.In this paper,the study found that: Firstly,the government to the family,the transfer payment to boost household consumption,transfer payments increased by1%,household consumption increased by 0.036%,and the government transfer payments to the influence of the domestic consumer spending there is heterogeneity in different levels of income families,low-income families is more sensitive to consumer spending on government transfer payments,high income family consumer spending less affected by the government transfer payments,and no significant statistically.Through the simulation of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including heterogeneous families,it is found that if the transfer payment is a short-term shock,the consumption of low-income families increases while that of high-income families decreases at the initial stage of the shock,but in the middle and late stage of the shock,the consumption of low-income families decreases while that of high-income families increases.A permanent change in transfer payments would alter the wealth structure of both groups of households,resulting in lower consumption for income households and higher consumption for low-income households.Secondly,The empirical research based on the panel vector autoregression(PVAR)model shows that the transfer payment of the central government has a positive promotion effect on social investment in both regions,and the transfer payment has a higher impact on social investment in the east than in the central and western regions.Consists of two regions,two levels of government's dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)models to explore transfer affects the transmission mechanism of social investment found: tax to channel is one of the most important transfer payment influence social investment channels,when the local government for transfer payments to reduce tax efforts,there will be a higher degree of social investment;The production externality of public capital amplifies the influence of transfer payment on social investment.The matching requirement of transfer payment increases the investment expenditure of local government,but government investment has crowding out effect on social investment.The government competition mechanism has different influences on the government investment in the east and the central and western regions,that is,the inter-government competition mechanism increases the government investment in the eastern regions,but reduces the government investment in the central and western regions.The main reason for the difference lies in the differences in the initial economic endowments of the two regions.In addition,the transfer payment to one region will have spillover effect on the social investment in another region through the financial distribution of the central government,inter-regional trade activities and household asset allocation.Generally speaking,the transfer payment in one region will reduce the scale of social investment in another region.Thirdly,By embedding the labor market and search for matching mechanism of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model to simulate found that unemployment benefits reduces the laborer of interest,does not help the increase of social employment,reduce social security enterprise contribution rate and increase on-thejob training subsidy policy reduces the labor costs of enterprises,has a positive pushing effect on employment,increase the central government to the local transfer payment policy through the multiplier effect and external effect to stimulate the labor demand of the enterprise.Preserved the contrast analysis shows that the employment policy,employment effect,reduce the enterprise contribution rate of social security,increase the central government to the local transfer payment and three jobs measures improving job training subsidy policy effect on the short term and long term differences,in particular,in the short term,the job training subsidy policy on the labor of extensive marginal,but in the long run,both the extensive margin of labor intensive marginal,the effectiveness of the central government to the local transfer payment policy is the highest.In addition,in this paper,the effect on employment fiscal transfer payment's research also concluded that the lower unemployment in the short term goals and economy target inconsistency between conclusion,that is to say,in the short term the most stimulating macroeconomic policy may not be able to promote employment,to a great extent to reduce the rate of social security,increase the central government to the local transfer payments,and increase on-the-job training subsidy the three guaranteed employment policy,increase the central government to the local transfer payment to macroeconomic stimulus,strongest and post training subsidy policy to reduce unemployment to a great extent.The study of this paper has important theoretical and practical significance,which can further enrich people's understanding of the function and effect of financial transfer payment,deepen their understanding of the transmission mechanism of financial transfer payment,and also have important reference value for the government's precise policy and targeted regulation.