| At present,with the continuous reduction of China's agricultural labor force,the continuous enhancement of resource and environmental constraints,and the increasing difficulty of food imports caused by the global new crown pneumonia epidemic,China's food supply and demand will always be in a tight balance for a long time.The replacement of manual labor by agricultural machinery has become an indispensable and important input element in food production,and its role in stabilizing food production and increasing food production is becoming more and more obvious.The continuous improvement of the level of agricultural mechanization has made up for the adverse impact of the shortage of agricultural labor on food production.From 1978 to 2019,China's food production still increased by 1.17 times in the context of a substantial reduction in agricultural labor.It can be seen that improving the level of agricultural mechanization is an important policy tool for ensuring national food security.In this context,it is necessary to in-depth study the impact of agricultural mechanization development on food production,so as to find the focus of China's grain production and supply in an uncertain environment,and achieve high-quality and sustainable development of grain production.In view of this,based on the analysis of the evolution of grain production and agricultural mechanization development,this article will analyze the impact path of agricultural mechanization development on grain production from both direct and indirect effects;and analyze the development of agricultural mechanization on the technical efficiency of grain production.On the basis of the impact mechanism of grain sown area and grain yield,using provincial panel data and municipal panel data respectively to focus on "the impact of agricultural mechanization development on the efficiency of grain production technology","the impact of agricultural mechanization development on grain sown area" and Empirical research on the three topics of "the impact of agricultural mechanization development on grain output".The research conclusions drawn from this can be summarized as the following five points:(1)There is a close connection between the development of agricultural mechanization and grain production,and the changing trend of grain production is consistent with the changing trend of the level of agricultural mechanization.Under normal circumstances,during the period of rapid development of agricultural mechanization,grain output has increased significantly,and agricultural machinery,as a substitute for labor,is playing an increasingly important role in grain production.(2)Since the reform and opening up,the level of agricultural mechanization in China has been continuously improved.The total power of agricultural machinery and the comprehensive mechanization rate of crop cultivation and harvesting have increased significantly,but there is an imbalance in regional development.The hills and mountains in the west and the low hilly terrain in the east hinder the development of agricultural mechanization and restrict the further improvement of the overall level of agricultural mechanization.(3)The technical efficiency of China's grain production and the total power of agricultural machinery have a relatively obvious positive spatial correlation.When other conditions remain unchanged,the improvement of the level of agricultural mechanization will not only significantly improve the technical efficiency of local grain production,but also affect other neighboring regions.The technical efficiency of grain production in China has a significant spatial spillover effect.Therefore,this article believes that the spatial spillover effect of the development of agricultural mechanization on grain production affects grain production by affecting the technical efficiency of grain production.From the perspective of time,from 1998 to 2013,large and medium-sized agricultural machinery had a significant positive spatial spillover effect on the technical efficiency of grain production.During this period,the cross-regional operation of agricultural machinery has experienced a process from inception to mature development.The cross-regional operation of agricultural machinery promoted the spread of grain production technology,improved the efficiency of agricultural machinery utilization,and promoted the development of large-scale and professional grain planting.From 2014 to 2018,with the intensified competition in the agricultural machinery operation market and the increase in the cost of agricultural machinery cross-regional operations,the long-distance(inter-provincial)and cross-regional operations of agricultural machinery have been declining.In the future,more attention should be paid to the short-distance agricultural machinery Cross-county)The spatial spillover effect of cross-regional operations on the efficiency of grain production technology.From the perspective of spatial dimension,this article believes that the cross-regional operation route of agricultural machinery exists in the form of a combination of cross-longitude and cross-latitude,and does not completely operate according to the cross-latitude.Through the empirical analysis of wheat and rice,the results show that in the provinces where the rice cross-regional operation is routed,the large and medium-sized agricultural machinery has a significant spatial spillover effect on the technical efficiency of grain production,which verifies that the cross-regional operation of China's agricultural machinery is based on the cross-regional operation.A mode that combines latitude and longitude.(4)Agricultural mechanization has a significant positive impact on the grain sown area,that is,the increase in the comprehensive mechanization rate of crop cultivation and harvest is beneficial to increase the proportion of grain sown area.With the increase in the price of agricultural labor and the non-agricultural transfer of agricultural labor,agricultural machinery has replaced manual labor,and the planting structure of farmers has developed from "grain-removing" to "grain-oriented".From a regional perspective,in the eastern and central regions,the comprehensive mechanization rate of crop cultivation and harvest has a significant positive impact on the proportion of grain sown area.The flatter the terrain,the more obvious the impact.It shows that with the improvement of the level of agricultural machinery and equipment,the promotion and application of small general-purpose machinery,the promotion of the strategy of "having grains on the ground and storing grains on technology",and the expansion of the scale of high-standard farmland construction,some areas were not suitable for planting in the eastern and central regions.The hills and mountains of grain can also expand the planting area.In Northeast China,the comprehensive mechanization rate of crop cultivation has no significant positive effect on the proportion of grain sown area.The main reason is that the level of agricultural mechanization in Northeast China and the improvement of grain sown area are very limited,which leads to the improvement of agricultural mechanization.The sown area of food crops cannot be expanded.From the perspective of the interaction terms of the comprehensive mechanization rate of crop cultivation and harvest and the terrain slope,in the flat terrain of the northeast and west,the improvement of agricultural mechanization has a significant impact on the proportion of grain sown area.(5)China's grain output and the total power of agricultural machinery have a relatively obvious positive spatial correlation.When other conditions remain unchanged,the improvement of the level of agricultural mechanization will not only significantly increase the local grain output,but also create obvious space for other neighboring areas Spillover Effect.From the perspective of the decomposition value,the indirect effect of the level of agricultural mechanization on grain output is significantly greater than the direct effect,indicating that the spatial spillover effect of China's agricultural machinery on grain output is greater than the direct effect.From the perspective of the length of time,the long-term effect of agricultural mechanization level on grain output is significantly greater than the short-term effect,indicating that in the long run,the level of agricultural mechanization has a greater degree of impact on grain output and the effect is more obvious.The spatial spillover effect of the level of agricultural mechanization on grain production has continued to weaken with the increase of the inter-regional distance.From 2014 to 2018,only under the spatial weight matrix of "within three hours"(180 minutes),the level of agricultural mechanization has an effect on grain production.The spatial spillover effect is significant,indicating that with the intensification of the local agricultural machinery competition market and the increase in transportation costs,the cross-regional operation distance of agricultural machinery is gradually being mainly short-distance.Affected by the fierce competition in the cross-regional operation of agricultural machinery,after reaching another threshold,the impact of highway transportation infrastructure on the cross-regional operation of agricultural machinery is weakened,and the impact of cross-regional operation of agricultural machinery on the spatial spillover effect of grain production Weaken.Specifically,when the road density(the road density in this area + the spatial lag of road density in other areas)is less than 0.123,the influence coefficient of the total power of agricultural machinery in other areas on the grain output in the area is 0.480.When the highway density is greater than or equal to 0.123 and less than0.297,the value of the influence coefficient of the total power of agricultural machinery in other regions on the grain output in the region rises to 0.704,which is a large increase.When the highway density is greater than 0.297,the above-mentioned coefficient value increases by 0.788,which is a slight increase.Closely centering on the research purpose and content of this article,this research uses provincial and municipal panel data to conduct empirical analysis.The possible innovations are as follows:First,in the perspective of research:(1)the existing research agrees that agricultural mechanization plays an important role in grain yield increase,but the specific path of Agricultural Mechanization on grain yield is less answered.This paper takes two important aspects that affect grain yield as the starting point,namely,through the analysis of the relationship between agricultural mechanization and grain production technology efficiency and grain planting area,Then,the mechanism of Agricultural Mechanization on grain yield is introduced,and the research content in related fields is expanded;(2)The existing research focuses on the analysis of the direct impact of Agricultural Mechanization on grain production,neglecting the important role of spatial factors in Agricultural Mechanization on grain production.Based on the practical background of agricultural machinery cross regional operation,this paper puts the spatial factors into the impact of Agricultural Mechanization on grain production,The paper analyzes the influence of Agricultural Mechanization on the technical efficiency and grain yield from two aspects: direct influence and spatial spillover effect,thus enriching and expanding the research perspective of relevant fields.Secondly,in the research methods:(1)in the study of the impact of Agricultural Mechanization on the technical efficiency of grain production,different from the existing literature according to the same latitude or the same longitude,but according to the actual situation,the author classifies the cross region operation provinces of wheat and rice by the combination of longitude and latitude,and then carries out spatial econometric regression,Make the measurement results closer to the reality;(2)Different from the existing methods,this paper uses linear mixed model to analyze the influence of Agricultural Mechanization Development on grain planting area,so as to better deal with the fixed factors such as agricultural machinery and regional time,and reduce the estimation deviation;(3)This paper chooses the dynamic spatial panel dobin model with explanatory variable lag term to study the spatial spillover effect of Agricultural Mechanization on grain yield,which is conducive to comparing the short-term and long-term effects of Agricultural Mechanization on grain yield,and makes up for the local limit of static space panel dobin model,so that the research results are more practical and instructive. |
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