Research On Comprehensive Evaluation Of Urban Resilience Of China

With the advancement of global industrialization,human activities continue to encroach on ecological resources,energy consumption is steadily rising,and greenhouse gas emissions continue to accumulate,bringing heavy pressure to the entire planet,increasing global extreme weather and frequent natural disasters.On the other hand,urban populations are becoming denser,causing various urban diseases such as traffic congestion,environmental pollution,and water shortages.In addition,there are public health emergencies such as various infectious diseases.The uncertainty faced by cities is increasing explosively,and various risks are intertwined and superimposed,which has a huge impact on urban planning and management.Traditional risk analysis and risk management face many challenges.A single engineering disaster prevention and emergency management can no longer meet.There is an urgent need to update and more effective prevention concepts to guide the development of cities sustainably.The "Resilience Concept" respects the law of uncertainty in the development of risk and disasters,and emphasizes the long-term effectiveness of the city's systemicity and adaptability,which fits this need and provides new research ideas for urban risk management.A comprehensive evaluation of urban resilience can help urban decision-makers make preliminary and follow-up decisions,thereby promoting the overall improvement of the city's economic development,public security,social stability,and government management.Consequenrly,it is provided with signification to study how and how to comprehensively evaluate urban resilience.With the continuous development of population and economy,cities have become increasingly close to other cities.At present,cities in China are no longer developing in isolation,but are located in one or several urban agglomerations.The new economic agglomeration makes urban agglomerations It is gradually replacing the provincial economy and becoming a higher organizational form of the regional spatial form in the process of industrialization and urbanization.Among them,the five major urban agglomerations,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,Chengdu-Chongqing and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,carry 47.04% of the national population and create 60.30% of GDP,making them the most representative national-level urban agglomerations in China.Taking this as the evaluation object of the comprehensive evaluation of urban resilience has good representativeness and major practical purport for the promotion of new urbanization.Based on previous research and analysis of changes in the concept of urban risk management,this article provides a new definition of the connotation of urban resilience by answering urban resilience-related disputes and trade-offs,and expounds the relevant theories of urban resilience to provide a comprehensive evaluation of urban resilience.Lay a theoretical foundation.Secondly,learn from domestic and foreign theories,practical experience,and system dynamics models to construct a urban resilience's index system of comprehensive evaluation,and select the entropy method of weighting to comprehensi vely evaluate the level of resilience.To conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the level of resilience.Next,92 cities in the five major urban agglomerations of China's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,Chengdu-Chongqing and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River are used as the research objects to measure the urban resilience and the resilience level of its subsystems from 2007 to 2019,from the urban resilience system Comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the urban resilience of the five urban agglomerations and their cities and the resilience of each subsystem from the perspectives of overall,urban resilience breadth and resilience depth,and spatial correlation,and use the NAR neural network model to predict the five urban agglomerations from 2020 to2024 Urban resilience and its average level in 92 cities.Then use the social network method to analyze the network connection of urban resilience,and explore the coupling and coordination between urban resilience subsystems and the coupling and coordination of urban resilience breadth and resilience depth,and use the VEC model to quantitatively analyze the relationship between the degree of coupling coordination and urban resilience.The relationship is quantitatively analyzed,and the nuclear density estimation is used to analyze the spatio-temporal trend and polarization phenomenon of the coupling coordination degree.Finally,the obstacle degree model is used to diagnose the obstacle factors of urban resilience,combined with the correlation of indicators,to find out the main factors affecting urban resilience,and use the spatial Dubin model to explore the degree of impact and spatial effects of urban resilience.The main conclusions of the paper are as follows:First,urban resilience fits the current needs of urban risk management,and its connotation needs to be redefined from general resilience and system theory.Urban resilience itself is a neutral word of speech.It just fits the needs of urban risk management at this stage and should not be deified or demonized.Urban resilience involves a wide range of aspects,and should be divided into general resilience and specific resilience,so that the meaning of each is clear.Specific resilience is aimed at a specific risk.For example,the resilience of a city in the face of floods is more related to engineering resilience standards and emergency measures.The general resilience of cities is aimed at the urban system.From the perspective of sustainability,it has a paradigm to study the resilience of urban systems,urban subsystems and external connections.The urban resilience system is derived from the urban giant system.The composition of its subsystems should follow the general knowledge of urban system composition and reflect the characteristics of resilience.It is considered to be composed of four subsystems: social resilience,economic resilience,ecological resilience and infrastructure resilience.Therefore,urban resilience should be redefined from the perspective of universal resilience and system theory: urban resilience should start from the perspective of open systems.When subjected to various shocks or disturbances,urban subsystems can have good coupling and coordination,and urban resilience.The network system in which it is located can carry out sufficient coordination and cooperation to buffer or restore the stable state of the city,and can better adapt to various disturbances through continuous learning and growth,thereby broadening the stability of the city.Second,there is no unified standard for the comprehensive evaluation index system of urban resilience.It is necessary to construct a scientific,systematic,critical and operability evaluation index system after systematic analysis from the relevant theoretical basis.Comply with the connotation of urban resilience and the core capabilities that should be possessed,take the ecological resilience,social resilience,economic resilience and infrastructure resilience subsystems as the criterion layer,and evaluate each subsystem from the urban stability and adaptability,and then select the domain-level Evaluation System.Judging from the feedback information from the empirical analysis,the constructed index evaluation system has good results.Third,on the overall evaluation and analysis of the urban resilience level of 92 cities in the five major urban agglomerations,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)The urban resilience structure of the five major urban agglomerations is obvious levers,and the development of urban resilience is uneven.It shows a clear upward trend over time,showing the spatial pattern of the Pearl River Delta>Yangtze River Delta>Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei>Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River>Chengyu,and the urban resilience of urban agglomerations has obvious structural characteristics.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is based on Beijing-Tianjin as the "dual-core drive" model,the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has an "olive" structure,the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration has a "diamond-shaped" structure,and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration has a dual-core structure of "Chengdu and Chongqing as dual cores + Fault",and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration is a typical "thick-bottomed pyramid" structure.(2)The empirical results of urban resilience level are consistent with theory and in line with reality.As an important foundation for urban development,economy is the most powerful guarantee for urban resilience.It provides capital for urban infrastructure,provides financial support for key facilities of urban lifeline,urban education and culture,and greatly promotes the level of urban resilience.The empirical results are consistent with the theory and also in line with the reality.The top 10 cities in terms of resilience levels are Shenzhen,Shanghai,Beijing,Guangzhou,Chengdu,Chongqing,Suzhou,Wuhan,Hangzhou and Nanjing.These cities are also strong cities in economic development.In the "trillion club".The bottom 10 cities in terms of resilience are Guang'an,Leshan,Meishan,Huanggang,Zigong,Yiyang,Ziyang,Suining,Neijiang,and Dazhou.These cities are relatively backward in economic development,without financial support,infrastructure upgrades,urban education and The slow development of culture makes the city's resilience level weaker.(3)The city's ability to stabilize and adapt to complement each other.It is reflected from the side that the constructed three-dimensional toughness model has certain feasibility.The urban resilience breadth and resilience depth of urban resilience levels are moving forward steadily.The three-dimensional resilience column composed of the two has undergone a "skinny-weaker-thick-solid" resilience evolution during the research period,and the trends of the two are very similar.,Has a good mutual promotion effect.(4)The urban resilience level presents agglomeration characteristics in space,mainly manifested in the characteristics of low-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration."Shangsujia" and "Shen Wanhui" have significant high-value agglomeration characteristics,which are hot spots,while Jiujiang,Neijiang,Leshan and Zigong have significant low-value agglomeration characteristics,which are cold spot areas,which require efforts to improve the level of resilience.Area.(5)The urban resilience level will rise from a low resilience level to a medium resilience level.Predicting urban resilience from a quantitative perspective,it is found that its resilience level will rise to a higher level in the next five years,from the original low resilience level to the middle level,which is consistent with the good development trend of Chinese society,economy and ecology.Fourth,through a further in-depth analysis of the urban resilience system from the internal and external aspects of the system,the following conclusions are obtained:(1)The urban resilience network is closely related,and the related form is consistent with the classification of urban agglomerations.From 2007 to 2019,the network relevance of urban resilience has risen very rapidly,obviously showing the characteristics of local relevance,and the form of network relevance is consistent with the existing classification of urban agglomerations.Except for the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration,the resilience of the other four urban agglomerations is very closely related.(2)The degree of coupling and coordination among the four subsystems has been increasing over time,and its classification model is almost the same as the level of urban resilience.the level of urban resilience,showing a spatial pattern of the Pearl River Delta>Yangtze River Delta>Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei>Middle Yangtze River>Chengdu and Chongqing.The degree of coupling coordination is in the leading position,followed by Chongqing,Tianjin and provincial capital cities,as well as Suzhou,Ningbo,Dongguan,and Foshan.The coupling coordination degree of the remaining cities is at the stage of basic coordination and moderate dissonance.(3)The coupling between the breadth of urban resilience and the depth of resilience is highly coordinated.The breadth of urban resilience and the depth of resilience complement each other and promote each other.Not only the breadth of resilience makes cities as stable as Mount Tai,but the wisdom of China also enables cities to have strong learning and innovation capabilities,continuously broadening the depth of urban resilience,and escorting urban safety.(4)The coordinated development of the degree of coupling and coordination between urban resilience subsystems,the breadth of urban resilience and the depth of resilience will have a certain impact on the level of urban resilience.Among them,the degree of coupling and coordination between urban resilience subsystems has a greater impact.(5)The 92 cities in the five major urban agglomerations are uneven in the coupling and coordinated development of the urban resilience subsystems.There are gaps among the urban agglomerations,and there are also gaps among the cities within the urban agglomerations,especially in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration,such as Chongqing and Chengdu and other cities.The development difference between the two is huge,and the polarization phenomenon is serious.Fifth,use the obstacle degree model to diagnose urban resilience and use spatial measurement to analyze the influencing factors,and draw the following conclusions:(1)The main obstacles to urban resilience development are the total export value of the city and the fixed assets of the urban municipal public facilities construction this year.Investment completed,number of patents granted,economic density,actual use of foreign capital,and total retail sales of consumer goods.(2)The main influencing factors of urban resilience level are external dependence,urban per capita consumption expenditure,the number of international Internet users,the proportion of science and technology expenditure in fiscal expenditure,the proportion of fiscal expenditure in GDP,and the degree of coupling and coordination between urban resilience subsystems.Among them,urban per capita consumption expenditure,the proportion of fiscal expenditure in GDP,and the degree of coupling and coordination between urban resilience subsystems have a local promotion effect on the level of urban resilience.The number of international Internet users has no significant local effect,and the local effects of other variables are all negative.The existence of the effect makes the degree of external dependence,urban per capita consumption expenditure,the proportion of science and technology expenditure in fiscal expenditure,and the degree of coupling coordination have a certain degree of negative spillover effect on the urban resilience level of neighboring or economically similar cities.Based on the conclusion,put forward corresponding policy recommendations.First,reduce the uneven development of urban resilience levels through high-level planning and top-level design,and achieve the ultimate goal of "common resilience".Second,strengthen the city's learning/innovation capabilities,enhance the depth of urban resilience,promote the breadth of urban resilience,and create a solid urban resilience column to escort urban safety.Third,learn from the high-value gathering forms of "Shangsujia" and "Shen Wanhui",and use the "urban resilience circle" to drive the development of regional urban resilience.Fourth,strengthen the relationship with other cities and create a good atmosphere of coordinated development.Not only can it improve social and economic development,but it can also greatly increase the friction time between the two places to fight against the epidemic when a disaster occurs,and save more Life and property inject a cardiotonic agent for the rapid recovery of the city.Fifth,improve the coupling and coordination between subsystems and promote the benign development of urban resilience.