Research On The Dynamic Linkage Mechanism Between China’s Economic Growth And Fluctuation,and Macroeconomic Governance

Economic growth and economic fluctuation have been the typical characteristics of macroeconomic operation.Fluctuating in growth and growing in fluctuation;realizing adjustment in short-term fluctuations,and breeding long-term growth in the adjustment.In the process of China’s economic growth,there are many constraints and interactions between economic growth,economic fluctuations and economic policies.There are both "great fluctuations" in the process of rapid growth and "great moderation" in the process of moderate growth;there are not only the "soft landing" of the economy under the direction of economic tightening regulation,but also the "counter-cyclical" of macroeconomic regulation at the stage of economic contraction,and the "cross-cyclical" of macroeconomic governance.Therefore,as the correlation between economic growth rate and economic volatility in macroeconomic theory and empirical research,there have been various forms of typical characteristics in China’s economic development practice.To this end,this paper will focus on the systematic analysis and research of China’s economic growth dynamic mechanism,business cycle fluctuation trend and macroeconomic regulation mode of China’s reform and opening up from the perspective of economic growth theory,business cycle theory and economic policy theory,and provide countermeasures and suggestions for the economic growth in the next 15 years to be in a reasonable operating range.The research content of the full text mainly consists of the following five parts.The first part mainly studies the aggregate driving characteristics in the process of China’s economic growth,and divides the stages of aggregate driven economic growth.Then we inject high-quality development and circular development into the aggregate measurement and constraints.We will start from the aggregate driving characteristics of economic growth,and according to the restriction and balance relationship between China’s total demand and total supply.We will synthesize and summarize the driving mode of China’s economic growth,and deeply elaborate the historical origin and significance of the current "double cycle" theory.China’s economic growth starts from dealing with and solving the shortage,which is one of the preconditions for the establishment of the "absolute convergence hypothesis" of economic growth.After the initial stage of absolute convergence,the dual factors of supply and demand of our economy began to be active,and the golden stage of economic growth appeared,that is,the "dual drive stage of total supply and total demand".This stage of economic growth performance is obvious.After China’s economic growth achieved a "soft landing",macro-control began to focus on restoring moderate economic growth,and China’s economic growth began to enter a long period of "soft expansion" stage.The typical feature of China’s economic growth at this stage is that the driving factor of economic growth has begun to change into a "single factor driving stage of total demand",and has formed a "conditional convergence stage" of economic growth.Since entering the new economic normal,the aggregate driving characteristics of China’s economic growth have changed,and a new pattern of high-quality supply leading and demand creation has emerged.To this end,we regard high-quality development as an important factor of discount and restriction integrated into total supply and demand,and describe the dynamic balance between total supply and total demand under high-quality constraints.The second part mainly describes the convergence characteristics of China’s economic growth process,and links various types of convergence with the stage of economic growth.We will demonstrate and study China’s economic growth mode and driving force from the perspective of economic growth convergence hypothesis.This paper uses various mathematical and econometric models of economic growth to measure and test the dynamic mechanism and characteristics of China’s economic growth.Our research idea is to use a variety of economic growth models to describe and measure China’s economic growth process based on the "absolute convergence hypothesis","conditional convergence hypothesis" and "group convergence hypothesis" of economic growth.In the early stage of reform and opening up,China’s economic growth process has a certain degree of "late-development advantage".This late-development advantage,economic opening and stimulated market vitality led to the realization of the "absolute convergence hypothesis" of economic growth in the early stage of reform and opening up,and the rapid take-off and catch-up of economic growth in this stage.The main macroeconomic characteristics of this period are: rapid economic growth and significant fluctuations,aggregate supply and aggregate demand driving economic growth alternately,fiscal policy and monetary policy have significant effects,and macroeconomic regulation has a single goal and short-term goal.Through the theoretical analysis and empirical test of this paper,we have confirmed the above characteristics of China’s economic growth,summarized the economic growth performance,the main causes of economic growth volatility and the driving mode of the Troika during this period,and finally described and analyzed the main effects of economic policies in macroeconomic regulation.The third part mainly discusses the situation of economic fluctuations in the process of economic growth in China,describes,estimates and tests the situation and causes of "great fluctuations" and "great moderation" in economic growth.As China’s economy enters the 21 st century,the mode of economic growth in China has begun to change from extensive to intensive.After the "ups and downs",the economic growth rate has entered a sustained and stable growth track.The typical characteristics of China’s economic growth and business cycle fluctuations during this period are: the economic growth rate remains at a high level,but the economic volatility remains at a low level.This is a typical "great moderation" stage in the process of China’s economic growth.In the process of China’s economic growth,the relationship between economic growth rate and economic volatility has always been a major issue.During the period of "great fluctuations" in the economy,economic volatility has a positive impact on the speed of economic growth,leading to the absolute convergence process of economic growth.At this time,the positive impact of volatility is reflected in investment,consumption,government expenditure and foreign net demand.The fourth part mainly discusses China’s macroeconomic regulation model and the corresponding economic policy effects,and then measures the business cycle dependence and combination mechanism effects of fiscal and monetary policies.We will discuss the causes and effects of the above "typical facts" after the division of the above economic growth stages,the test of the convergence hypothesis of economic growth,and the measurement of the "great fluctuations" and "great moderation" of China’s economy.The interaction and constraint between supply and demand,the mechanism of economic growth convergence,and the "great fluctuation" and "great moderation" of the economy are all closely related to economic growth,business cycle and economic policy.On the basis of the analysis of the causes of these facts,we begin to explore the important facts contained in these economic growth processes,that is,the long-term trend of the growth economy in the process of economic growth.We will creatively integrate the business cycle,economic fluctuation,economic convergence,and economic "great moderation" with macroeconomic governance,pay attention to the optimization of the objectives of macroeconomic governance,rational division of labor,and efficient coordination.Based on the trend and cross-cycle requirements of current macroeconomic governance,we will test the correlation between the economic policy cycle and the business cycle,and propose the selection of macroeconomic governance tools and the formulation of policy rules.After the above important research,the main progress and innovation of the full text are reflected in the following four aspects.Firstly,this paper comprehensively measures the aggregate constraints in the process of China’s economic growth,and puts forward three stages of economic growth: "total supply single-factor driving stage","total supply and total demand double-factor driving stage" and "total demand single-factor driving stage".Then it uses the economic growth model to measure the intensity and sustainability of total supply and total demand driving.The paper concretely estimates the theoretical basis and time-point boundary of the above three stages,and discusses the specific process of the above three stages’ migration.In addition,it analyzes and tests the mean process and volatility process of economic growth dynamics in these three stages,the business cycle patterns of these three stages,and the specific effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy in these three stages.The test found that the macro-control model and its effect on the conditions of the total supply and demand gap of the economy,as well as the "mixed" driving mechanism of new economic growth.More importantly,we integrate external requirements such as high-quality development,smooth circulation development and green economic development into total supply and total demand,and take total supply and total demand management integrated with high-quality development constraints as the goal of macroeconomic governance,so as to promote the economy to achieve an effective economic growth model driven by both total supply and total demand.Secondly,this paper comprehensively and systematically divides the convergence stages of China’s economic growth,and tests the "absolute convergence hypothesis","conditional convergence hypothesis" and "group convergence hypothesis" of economic growth.The characteristics of business cycle fluctuations and economic growth trend of these economic growth convergence stages are estimated in detail.The paper creatively links the convergence mode of economic growth with the periodicity of business cycle fluctuations and the "great moderation" and "great fluctuation" situation of the economy,and finds that the "single factor driving of total supply" and the "great fluctuation" situation of the business cycle are the important conditions of "absolute convergence of economic growth".At this time,economic policies tend to have a tightening color,and moderate macroeconomic regulation has the effect of reducing risks and reducing fluctuations;The convergence mechanism of economic growth has a significant impact on the correlation between economic growth and economic fluctuations.How this impact can be reflected in the economic operation in the next 15 years is an important guarantee for macroeconomic governance and keeping the future economic operation in a reasonable range.Thirdly,this paper measured and estimated the "great fluctuation" and "great moderation" trend of the economic growth process,which is an in-depth study of the dynamic process of economic growth and the mechanism of business cycle fluctuation based on the long-term perspective and volatility perspective.This paper estimates and tests the business cycle dependence of economic policy effects by measuring and dividing the business cycle regime and economic policy regime.This paper uses the "MS-DSGE model" to measure the regulatory effect of fiscal and monetary policies under different regional systems,which provides an important empirical basis for the business cycle dependence of macroeconomic regulation and demonstrates the necessity and feasibility of counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical macroeconomic regulation.This method breaks the premise of fixed parameters in the traditional DSGE model,extends the relevance of economic variables to different stages of the business cycle,and greatly expands the applicability and pertinence of the DSGE model,so that the design principles and response mechanisms of macroeconomic policies can be described and analyzed in different economic environments.Fourthly,this paper refracts and transforms the relationship between economic growth and economic volatility into the relationship test of "stable growth" and "risk prevention",and tests the dynamic correlation mechanism between economic growth rate and economic volatility by using the "regional" correlation effect between the average process of economic growth rate and the volatility process.Therefore,we have adopted some economic growth models with threshold effect to measure the "threshold effect" of the dynamic transmission of economic volatility to economic growth rate.We have also measured and analyzed the dynamic transmission of volatility shocks to real output and inflation rate in the general equilibrium model,and found that the transmission process of volatility shocks has significant business cycle dependence.Such empirical evidence has important implications for the formulation and implementation of macroeconomic governance policies with counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical characteristics,and also provides decision support for maintaining the economy in a reasonable range in the next 15 years.