Research On Construction Of Atmospheric Load Index For Energy Utilization And Path Of Load Reduction

China’s economy is transforming from a high-speed development to a high-quality development.Pollution prevention and control,including air,water and soil pollution,is a key bastion.Energy development and utilization are the driving force of economic development but also an important source of atmospheric pollution loads such as CO₂and SO₂.Therefore,from the perspective of high-quality development,it is of great practical significance to study the atmospheric load caused by energy utilization and explore the load reduction path from multiple perspectives.In recent research,there are different insighs on environmental pollution caused by energy utilization,however,it can be roughly classified into two main categories:describing environmental pollution by the emission of a single pollutant,or by a comprehensive index,such as the amount of particulate matter in the atmosphere,or the ecological footprint index being used as a proxy for environmental pollution.However,firstly,it will deviate when guiding a certain targeted air pollution control.Secondly,the impacts of various pollutants on the air environment are complex.For example,SO₂has both acidification effect and human toxic effect,so when assessing air pollution,it is unacceptable to simply add up various pollutants emissioned by energy utilization.In addition,when exploring the path of air pollution control,an accurate understanding of the environmental impact of air pollution is needed,along with the impact of pollution lag,and regional differences in pollution.Therefore,the following research objectives are proposed:according to the life cycle theory and considering the main energy forms and the emission of main air pollutants,we build an energy utilization atmospheric load index with localization and timeliness characteristics,and explore the treatment path of air pollution from different perspectives based on this index.Then the research contents are mainly organized as follows:（1）Conduct statistical analysis on the overall situation of China’s energy utilization,including single-type energy and industrial energy structure,and grasp the characteristics and trends of the quantity and structure of energy utilization.（2）The life cycle assessment method is employed to construct the atmospheric load index of energy utilization.（3）Carrying out empirical research based on atmospheric load index to explore load shedding paths.The key findings are as follows:First,through the statistics of China’s energy utilization,it is found that China’s energy utilization still has the characteristics of continuous growth.Driven by transportation,household,commerce and other industries,although the proportion of fossil energy utilization has a downward trend,the total amount is still increasing,especially the proportion of coal is still large,natural gas is expected to increase at a faster rate and power consumption is expected to increase.New energy is developing rapidly,but the total amount is small,and the load shedding pressure is difficult to ease in the short term.However,new energy and renewable energy are developing rapidly and will play a greater role in energy conservation and emission reduction and atmospheric load reduction in the future.Second,by building up the atmospheric load index,it is found that CO₂is the largest pollutant emission in the energy utilization process and the environmental impact caused by CO₂is also the largest,followed by dust and CH₄;Most of CO₂is emitted in the energy consumption phase,but the atmospheric load caused by the mining and transportation phase is very obvious.The emission of dust and CH₄is mainly concentrated in the coal mining stage,and the transportation distance is much higher than the atmospheric load caused by emission factors.The atmospheric load caused by coal,petroleum,natural gas and electric power per 10,000 tons of standard coal is5.12E+04 Person Equivalent（PE）,1.65E+04 PE,3.24+03 PE and 4.73+04 PE respectively.Compared with the relevant studies abroad,it is found that the pollutants emission of China’s energy consumption is relatively high,and there is a large technical space for energy conservation and emission reduction.The model and construction method of the atmospheric load index can be extended to evaluate the environmental impact of other energy use and provide a reference for similar research.The data information in this thesis can provide a data reference for air pollution control caused by energy utilization.Thirdly,an ARDL model is constructed by using the atmospheric load index as the explained variable,and the load reduction path is explored from the macro factors.The results show that the results of the air load as the index and the ecological footprint as the index are similar,which indicates that the air load index is effective to represent the environment.There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between atmospheric load and macroeconomic variables.In the long run,there are positive relationships between atmospheric load and economic growth,urbanization,natural resources,and negative relationships between atmospheric load and human resources,"mixed factor of human resources and urbanization".In the short term,there are positive relationships between atmospheric load and economic growth,urbanization.The relationships between natural resources,human resources and atmospheric load are not significant,but the relationship between"mixed factor of human resources and urbanization"and atmospheric load is significant.The EKC hypothesis under atmospheric load index is rejected but supported under ecological footprint.Natural resources,economic growth and urbanization are the Granger Causality of the atmospheric load.There is a two-way Granger Causality relationships between economic growth and urbanization.Conclusions and data support for load reduction measures from the macro perspective.Fourth,the dynamic panel model and the panel threshold regression model are built to explore the regional heterogeneity of load reduction measures and the non-linear relationship between energy consumption structure and atmospheric load.The results show that the first order lag of the atmospheric load has positive effect on the current period,meaning the atmospheric load has inertia.Nationwide perspective,energy consumption structure plays a positive role in promoting atmospheric load.Regional perspective,the energy consumption structure of the eastern province has a positive effect on the atmospheric load,and the energy consumption structure of the central province suppresses the atmospheric load,but the coefficient of the western region is not significant.Nationwide perspective,the industrial structure optimization has a significant inhibitory effect on atmospheric load.Regional perspective,the central region industrial structure adjustment is to reduce the load effect.The influences of different energy consumption structures on the atmospheric load have non-linear characteristics:Three thresholds are significant nationwide,and double thresholds are significant in regional.Different thresholds in different regions indicate that the influences of energy consumption structure on atmospheric load are quite different,so different measures should be taken to reduce the load.Fifth,according to the above research,it can be found that energy utilization and emission factor are two important internal factors of atmospheric load,energy structure and industrial structure are two important external factors of atmospheric load.Finally,the multi-objective optimization model of energy cost-atmospheric load-total energy consumption is established to explore the path of load reduction from the perspective of industry energy structure.The results show that the target variables such as atmospheric load can be minimized by optimizing the energy structure.Under this background,the coal and oil share further decrease,while the natural gas and electricity share increases,and the total energy consumption of industrial industry decreases significantly.