| The emergence of online ride-hailing travel platforms represented by Didi has added new vitality to urban transportation.On the one hand,it guides the transformation of people’s travel concept and habit to shared travel;on the other hand,it improves the utilization rate of idle private cars,makes up for the shortage of taxi supply,and improves the traffic capacity.In recent years,platforms have actively promoted P2 P ride-sourcing,B2 C ride-sourcing,ridesplitting,ride-sharing and other diversified services in order to expand the user scale and create a shared mobility ecosystem.However,the new form of business also brings negative externalities to the society.Firstly,the interests of taxi drivers are damaged due to the market squeeze,and the industry competition is intensified.Secondly,incidents of online ride-hailing drivers infringing on passengers frequently occur.As a result,local governments have tightened the industry access system for online ride-hailing and strengthened compliance supervision.Then,under the two-way action of platform promotion and government constraint,will the old and new forms of business survive the fittest or co-exist? What will be the development characteristics of different online ride-hailing modes in the future? To judge trends,it is necessary to shift the perspective to the “bottom-up” driving force of traveler’s behavioural choices,because ultimately the market vote is in the hands of consumers.So,what is the main motivation for people to choose their way of travel? What factors influence the choice and transformation of travel mode? What effect does the change of different factors have on the development of online ride-hailing? These are the main questions to be answered in this research.First of all,in order to clarify the research objects,the development context of the new form of shared mobility is sorted out,and the different viewpoints of previous studies on the concepts of sharing behavior,collaborative consumption and sharing economy are summarized.On the basis of redefining the sharing economy,the differences and connections between different travel modes of online ride-hailing are clarified.Secondly,on the basis of in-depth interviews,the means-end chain is used to conduct qualitative analysis on the behavioral choice motives of online ride-hailing passengers.The interview content is extracted into several elements nodes,and the nodes are divided into three categories: attributes,consequences and values.Among them,the values are the ultimate goal demands that passengers expect from online ride-hailing,while the attributes of products or services of online ride-hailing are the means to realize the values,and the perceptual orientations are the direct consequences of the attributes.The relationship arrow connects the nodes to each other,forming multiple causal paths,and each path is a complete passenger travel motive.The study found that saving time,avoiding personal assault,being calm and not anxious,saving money and being happy and comfortable were the five most important perceptual orientations for passengers.Thirdly,the travel revenue model is constructed from two dimensions of travel utility and travel cost.On this basis,using the evolutionary game theory,the passenger travel choice is regarded as the process of the bounded rational individuals’ constant imitation,trial and error,and finally reaches the stable state.The passenger travel choice behavior is modeled and analyzed by using the payoff matrix and the replicated dynamic equation.Considering that platform rules and passengers’ strategy sets are different in different market development stages,four evolutionary game models ranging from simple to complex are constructed,and the evolution laws of different online ride-hailing modes are discussed by using MATLAB simulation.The first model discusses the evolution of old and new supply-demand matching methods.Taxis are the only means of travel,with passengers either waving at the roadside or online ridehailing.At this point,passengers take “fast and accurate” as the basis,and consider the two variables of displacement utility and time cost.It is found that online ride-hailing instead of roadside waving is the only evolutionary stability strategy.The second model mainly discusses the evolution law of the old and new travel modes –P2P ride-sourcing and taxi-hailing.At this time,passengers will “saving time and money,safety and comfort” as the selection criteria.The simulation results show that the more sufficient the supply,the lower the price level,the higher the comfort,and the lower the probability of safety risk,the faster the evolution speed of P2 P ride-sourcing will be.When the above variables are kept within a reasonable range,P2 P ride-sourcing and taxi-hailing can achieve long-term symbiosis.In addition,platform subsidies are included in the model to discuss the impact of this strategy on the evolutionary results.The third model takes Di Di Qing Cai Carpooling as an example to analyze the pricing mechanism of two types of ride-splitting strategies,namely,immediate departure and ridesplitting departure,and to simulate the evolution law of passengers’ ride-splitting strategy selection by using the single-population evolutionary game model.Cost saving is not the only factor affecting passengers’ decision.The evolution of ride-splitting is also related to travel distance,traffic congestion,success rate of ride-sharing,matching time between supply and demand,cost per unit time and extra travel time.The forth model discusses the evolution trend of ride-sharing service,involving private car owners and carless passengers.The two travel groups have different strategy sets,and their travel choices influence each other.Most of the private car owners are office workers.Commuting time is the main situation of ride-sharing,which is repetitive and regular.Therefore,two replicative dynamic equations are constructed to judge the evolutionary stability strategy.It is found that the initial proportion of car owners and passengers participating in ride-sharing determines the direction of evolution.The variables are further divided into three categories:owner end,passenger end and bilateral drive,and the influence of parameter changes of each variable on the evolution results is judged by simulation.In addition,the study also found that the government’s establishment of high occupancy vehicle lanes can accelerate the evolution of ride-sharing.Finally,from the perspective of the government and the platform,the paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the development of ride-hailing travel.Give play to the “top-down” normative and guiding role of the government and the platform,and jointly promote the travelers’ behavior to evolve in the desired direction. |
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