Study On CO₂ Emission Forecasting And Peak Pathway Of Urban Industrial Zone Renewal

In The Paris Agreement,China has promised to achieve the peak of carbon emissions in2030.As a key sector of energy conservation and emission reduction,construction is considered to have significant emission reduction potential.As an important focus of urban construction,it is of great significance to study the impact of urban industrial renewal strategy on carbon emissions.This study first proposed the concept of carbon emission intensity baseline of urban industrial zone renewal buildings,took the whole process of Jinan Industrial zone renewal as the research object,and based on the carbon emission intensity baseline,established the carbon emission accounting method of the renewal process under the control of different existing building retention rates.Then,through the extended study of carbon emission prediction Kaya model,the influencing factors of building carbon emission and their weights and contribution rate to carbon emission in the industrial renewal process are established.The mathematical model of the quantitative relationship between the total carbon emission and its influencing factors was established with the method of mathematical statistics,which was used to predict the regional carbon emission during the building operation phase after the renewal.Finally,taking the peak time of total carbon emission of building energy consumption as the criterion,three scenarios of the updated operation stage were set to predict the law of building carbon emission in the region.The specific research results are as follows:Based on the historical data mining and analysis method of building operating energy consumption,the baseline of carbon emission intensity of operating energy consumption of newly built and rebuilt buildings in the renewal area are respectively 71.84kg CO₂/m²for office buildings;Hotel building 79.14kg CO₂/m²;Shopping mall building 75.68kg CO₂/m²;Education building 67.17kg CO₂/m²;Residential buildings 42.56kg CO₂/m².Under the control of low existing building retention rate,the total energy consumption and the average annual growth rate of building operation were the highest.Under the control of high existing building retention rate,the total energy consumption and average annual growth rate of building operation are the lowest.The total energy consumption and average annual growth rate of building operation in the industrial area renewal process under the control of medium existing building retention rate are in the middle.The specific factors affecting the temporal total carbon emission of renewal building operation in Jinan Industrial Zone are:temporal comprehensive carbon emission factor,temporal average energy consumption density,temporal per capita floor area,temporal economic activity index and temporal public building population.The time series comprehensive carbon emission factor and the total carbon emission of the building operation time series show a logarithmic decreasing relationship.The relationship between the average energy consumption density and the total carbon emission of buildings in the time series increased exponentially.There is an exponential decreasing relationship between the per capita floor area and the total carbon emission in the time series of building operation.The temporal economic activity index and the total carbon emission of the building operating time series show a power function decreasing relationship.There is a linear synchronous increase relationship between the population of public buildings and the total carbon emission in the time series of building operation.Based on Kaya identity,the prediction model of carbon emission from building operation in Jinan Industrial Zone renewal process is extended,and the LMDI factor decomposition method is used.By multicollinearity diagnosis and ridge regression fitting method to establish the comprehensive carbon emissions by the temporal factor,construction operation sequence average energy density,temporal construction area per capita,time-series economic active index and temporal public buildings use population five factors affecting industrial zone of Jinan renewal process building run carbon emissions and the mathematical model of quantitative relationship between carbon emissions.The population of public buildings in the time series,the average energy consumption density in the time series and the economic activity index in the time series have significant effects on the carbon emissions of buildings,with the contribution rates of 82.68%～86.17%,79.53%～83.74%and-47.81%～-40.16%respectively.The contribution values of temporal per capita gross floor area and temporal comprehensive carbon emission factors to building carbon emissions were 29000～46800t CO₂and 24500～31100t CO₂,respectively,which had a slight inhibitory effect on building carbon emissions.Strategic suggestions for Jinan Industrial Zone renewal:if the renewal process is guided by the design scheme with high existing building retention rate,the carbon emission peak can be reached before 2030 according to the economic incentive scenario,green development scenario and environmental protection ecological scenario after the renewal process enters the operation stage;If the existing building retention rate design scheme is selected to guide the renewal process,the peak of carbon emission can be reached before 2030 according to the green development scenario and environmental protection ecological scenario after the renewal process enters the operation stage,and the peak of carbon emission can not be reached in 2030 according to economic incentive scenario.If the renewal process is guided by the design scheme with low existing building retention rate,the peak of carbon emission can be reached before 2030 only in accordance with the control operation state of environmental protection and ecological environment,and the peak of carbon emission can not be reached in accordance with the control operation state of economic incentive scenario and green development scenario.This study extends the categories of influencing factors used by Kaya identity model to predict the carbon emissions from the operation of urban industrial renewal buildings,and constructs a research method for the timing development and co-operation of residential buildings and public buildings in the process of renewal.Update industrial development project the whole process of carbon emissions for the city of peak time and peak prediction provides data and theoretical support,help to promote city industrial zone update development project implements its commitment to national carbon emissions to peak in 2030 goals,also update the whole process of urban industrial park provides reasonable Suggestions to further improve the energy efficiency in buildings.