Carbon Emission Measurement And Carbon Peak Development Strategy Of Road Freight Traffic In Mega Cities

The signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015 established a close connection between rising CO₂ concentrations and climate change.As rapid economic growth continues,the significance of transportation has become increasingly prominent.However,this growth has also resulted in a rapid increase in energy consumption within the transport sector,making it one of the most resource-intensive industries worldwide.In fact,the transport sector accounts for approximately 30%of global emissions.Within this sector,freight vehicles,due to their high energy consumption per vehicle and extensive annual average distance traveled,contribute significantly to carbon emissions and energy consumption.Therefore,there exists substantial potential for reducing carbon emissions in road freight transportation,particularly in mega-cities where carbon emissions from road freight have a significant impact on overall emission reduction.This thesis focuses on addressing carbon emissions from road freight in mega-cities,with specific attention given to measuring these emissions and proposing strategies to predict the year in which carbon emissions will peak.Beijing and Shenzhen have been selected as the mega-cities for this research.The scope of the study is defined,with urban road freight traffic identified as the primary research subject.The MOVES model version 2014a,along with the parameter management panel（CDM）,is employed to localize the parameter data for Beijing and Shenzhen.By incorporating road information,meteorological parameters,and fuel parameters of freight vehicles,a My SQL-based emission factor database is established.Based on data from 2010 to 2020,this thesis measures and analyzes the carbon emissions of road freight traffic in Beijing and Shenzhen in terms of total volume,per capita emissions,carbon intensity,and carbon structure by vehicle type.The results indicate that in 2020,the total carbon emissions of road freight traffic in Beijing and Shenzhen were 3,517,400 tons and 3,115,100 tons,respectively.Furthermore,a positive correlation between freight traffic carbon emissions and GDP is observed.Although Beijing’s per capita carbon emissions exhibit a year-on-year growth trend,the rate of growth has slowed down since 2018.In contrast,Shenzhen’s per capita carbon emissions have been declining since 2017,indicating significant achievements in carbon emission reduction within the transportation industry.The order of road freight traffic carbon emissions in Beijing and Shenzhen is as follows:light trucks,heavy trucks,medium trucks,and micro trucks.The exponential increase of light trucks primarily accounts for the current rapid growth in carbon emissions from freight traffic.Moreover,this thesis employs the LEAP（Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system）model to evaluate changes in energy demand and GHG emissions of road freight traffic in Beijing and Shenzhen during the historical period（2002-2020）using scenario analysis.The scenarios assess changes in energy demand and GHG emissions for road freight transportation in these cities from 2002 to 2020.Additionally,CO₂,CH₄,and N₂O emission trends are projected for the future period（2021-2040）by considering various scenarios and exploring the peak emission years and optimal development paths.According to the scenario analysis,the number of freight vehicles in Beijing is projected to increase from 476,000 in 2020 to 759,000 in 2040,while in Shenzhen,it will rise from 473,000 in 2020 to 718,000 in 2040.The total carbon emissions of road freight traffic in Beijing are expected to peak in 2030 at 6,342,700 t CO_2e.By 2040,under different scenarios including technology upgrading,intensity mitigation,structural transformation,and optimal development,carbon emissions are anticipated to decrease by 17.84%,16.60%,4.34%,and 34.20%,respectively,compared to the baseline scenario.Similarly,in Shenzhen,the total carbon emissions from road freight traffic are projected to peak in 2029 at 7.035 million t CO_2e.By 2040,compared to the baseline scenario,carbon emissions are expected to decrease by 19.76%,16.86%,2.26%,and 31.60%under the technology upgrading,intensity mitigation,structural transformation,and optimal development scenarios,respectively.Among the various emission reduction measures,improving fuel efficiency proves to be the most effective.However,the optimal development scenario,which incorporates multiple measures,represents the most desirable path for development.Therefore,tapping into the emission reduction potential of freight vehicles is crucial in helping Beijing and Shenzhen achieve their carbon peaking targets.