Discussion On Peak Carbon Emissions And Energy Saving-Emission Reduction Of Public Buildings In Chongqing Based On LEAP Model

In the past century,due to the acceleration of industrialization and excessive human activities,the global climate has undergone significant changes,mainly characterized by rising temperatures.Since 2006,China has become the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases,and it's carbon emissions have reached 23.3%of global greenhouse gas emissions,which bear tremendous pressure of international emission reduction.In response to climate change,China promised to peak its carbon dioxide emissions around2030 at the Paris Climate Change Conference in 2015,and will strive to reach its peak as soon as possible.The proposal of the carbon peak target means that China's energy conservation and emission reduction has entered the stage of total control,and it has forced China's provinces and cities to pay attention to the time and path of peak carbon emission.When studying the peak path of the city's overall and sub-areas,it was found that the carbon peak of the construction sector is the focus of the city's carbon emissio ns peak.With the advancement of urbanization,the number of urban buildings,especially public buildings,has grown rapidly,resulting in significant energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.In 2016,the energy intensity of public buildings in China was23.9kgce/m~2,which is about three times that of residential buildings,it is a major energy consumer and also the major source of carbon emissions for buildings.This paper takes the public buildings in Chongqing as the research object to simulate and predict the peak time and peak level of carbon emissions in Chongqing's public buildings according to the development plan of Chongqing and provides a decision-making reference for the peak carbon emission path of public buildings in Chongqing.Firstly,based on the Taylor series neural network method,this paper disassembly calculates the urban public building area of Chongqing.The dismantling principle is based on the correlation between indicators such as public building land area,industr ia l building land area,public building completion area,and industrial building completio n area in the statistical yearbook.Based on the calculation method of the energy balance sheet,the energy consumption and carbon emissions of public buildings in Chongqing have been calculated over the years.The current situation of energy consumption and carbon emissions of public buildings in Chongqing is analyzed,which lays a foundatio n for the construct of LEAP models and the factors affecting the carbon emissions of public buildings.Secondly,on the basis of qualitative analysis,the main influencing factors of carbon emissions of public buildings in Chongqing are determined by LMDI factor decomposition method,which is the key driving factor of LEAP model.Thirdly,in the current building energy conservation and emission reduction measures in Chongqing,the market economic measures are added,such as carbon emission trading and carbon tax,and four future scenarios for the development of energy conservation-emission reduction of public buildings in Chongqing are set.According to the development plan of Chongqing City and the key driving factors of LEAP model,the relevant parameters under each scenario are quantified.Finally,based on the combination of scenario analysis and LEAP model,the peak time and peak level of carbon emissions from public buildings in Chongqing under four scenarios are simulated and predicted,and the sensitivit y analysis of carbon emission peak prediction results is carried out,thereby the carbon emissions peak paths and energy saving-emission reduction countermeasures.of public buildings are proposed.The result show that:(1)In 2016,the urban public building area of Chongqing was 217,910,900 m~2.The energy consumption is 6.7869 Mtce,the energy consumption per unit of public building area is 31.15 kgce/m~2,and the carbon emission is 17.4213 MtCO2.The dismant ling results of various types of public building area are:office building area is 75,379,200 m~2;shopping mall building area is 45,957,400 m~2;hotel and hotel building area is 43,059,200m~2;cultural and educational building area is 42,664,400 m~2;medical and sanitary building area is 10,873,800 m~2.(2)In the business-as-usual(BaU)scenario,the peak time of public buildings carbon emissions in Chongqing is 2033,and the peak level is 35.6424 MtCO2.In the blueprint scenario,the peak time of carbon emissions in public buildings is 2025,and the peak level is 19.7462 MtCO2.With the deepening of scenarios,the peak time of carbon emissio ns in public buildings will gradually advance and the peak level will decrease.(3)The per capita public building area and the energy intensity per unit building area are the main factors affecting the peak time and peak level of carbon emissions in public buildings.When the per capita public building area is small,it only affects the peak level of carbon emissions in public buildings.With the increase of per capita public building area,the peak level of carbon emissions in public buildings will gradually increase,and the peak time of carbon emissions will also be postponed.The energy intensity per unit of public building area has an impact on the peak carbon emission and peak time of public buildings.With the improvement of building energy-saving technology level,the enforcement of building energy-saving standards and the rationalization of energy-using modes,the carbon reduction effect of the energy intens it y per unit of public building area will also be enhanced.(4)A reasonable path to achieve the peak carbon emissions of public buildings in Chongqing is to control the development scale of public buildings and reduce the energy consumption level of per unit public buildings.By reducing the energy consumption level of public buildings,the carbon emission peak will be achieved as soon as possible.On this basis,we can reasonably control the development scale of the construction industry and real estate enterprises,improve the utilization rate of public buildings in the city,and the peak level of carbon emissions of public buildings will be further reduced.