Estimation Methods For The Indirect Economic Impacts Of Transportation Infrastructure Disruptions

Transportation infrastructure system is critical to the economic development as well as the sustainability of urban cities.Transportation disruption can not only cause great direct economic losses,but also lead to huge indirect economic impacts.However,these indirect economic impacts have not been adequately addressed in existing studies.Furthermore,simulation results of transportation disturbance and disaster damage have not been fully incorporated into the estimation of the indirect economic impacts caused by transportation disruption.In addition,the indirect economic impacts of passenger flow disturbance have not been fully considered.This thesis contributes to the estimation of the indirect economic impacts due to transportation disruption by proposing the general principles and the procedure of conducting comprehensive estimation of the indirect economic impacts,constructing estimation frameworks and introducing the time constraint into the existing economic model.First,a systematical review of existing economic models used in this field is conducted,considering the type and structure of economic models,the introduction of external shocks into economic models,and data collection and processing.Based on this,the general principles and the procedure of conducting comprehensive estimation of the indirect economic impacts caused by transportation disruption are proposed,based on the theoretical analysis of potential economic impacts caused by transportation disruption.Secondly,two frameworks are designed for estimating of the indirect economic impacts due to transportation disruptions,based on the Input-Output Model and the Computable General Equilibrium Model,respectively.Potential double counting issues during the implementation of the proposed frameworks and corresponding tactics are discussed.Finally,an explicit estimation model is constructed by introducing the time constraint into the Computable General Equilibrium Model.In this model,the relationships between the household time spendings on a series of activities and household utility are illustrated.In order to verify the feasibility of the proposed frameworks and the estimation model,case studies of the urban Los Angeles area are conducted,in which the indirect economic impacts of road transportation disruptions are estimated.In this thesis,transportation disturbance simulation results and disaster impacts information are integrated into the estimation of the indirect economic impacts caused by transportation disruption.A series of the initial effects caused by transportation disruption are considered and the comprehensive indirect economic impacts of transportation disruption are investigated.The spatial and industrial distribution of the indirect economic impacts are also identified.The proposed estimation model is able to simulate the impacts of travel time changes on household time spendings under the time constraint.This thesis contributes to the full understanding of the indirect economic impacts due to transportation disruption and the identification of sensitive industries and institutions.This thesis can provide theoretical support for the reduction of the economic impacts of transportation disruption,in the meantime,it can lay fundament for the decision-making of transportation infrastructure recovery plans,transportation infrastructure investment projects as well as post-disaster recovery strategies.