| Xinjiang is the largest high-quality commodity cotton base in China.According to the statistics in2020 showed that the cotton planting area and yield in Xinjiang accounted for 78.93% and 87.33% of the whole China,respectively.Therefore,to enhance the sustainable and stable growth of cotton production in Xinjiang is not only related to the economic development of Xinjiang,but also related to the price changes of commodity cotton and effective supply of raw cotton in China.For a long time,"high input and high cost" has become the most prominent feature of Xinjiang agriculture,especially in cotton planting.In the process of cotton production in Xinjiang,the input amount of chemical fertilizer and pesticide is 2.7 times and 3.6 times higher than the upper limit of safe use in developed countries,respectively,while the utilization rate of chemical fertilizer and pesticide in cotton field is less than 1/3 of the total application amount.The chemical residue in soil is very serious,which causes the imbalance of cotton field ecosystem,and also leads to the increasingly serious diseases and insect pests in cotton area of Xinjiang.The development of cotton industry in Xinjiang is facing the double bottlenecks of production and ecology,which seriously restricts the stable and sustainable production of cotton in Xinjiang.Finding a coordinated and balanced development mode between economy and ecology has become an urgent problem to be solved in the sustainable and high-quality development of cotton industry.With the implementation of agricultural "double reduction" plan,bio-fertilizers and bio-pesticides have become important technical schemes for reduction and substitution of agricultural chemical fertilizers and pesticides.In addition to biological breeding technology,biological fertilizers and biological pesticides are gradually popularized and applied in Xinjiang cotton.In terms of the application evaluation of bio-agricultural technology and farmers’ behavior,existing studies focus more on grain and fruit and vegetable crops,and mainly evaluate the single economic benefit of technology from the perspective of farmers’ cognition,while there are few quantitative studies on the comprehensive benefits of bio-fertilizer ecology and economy.In terms of farmers’ behavior selection,the influencing factors are mainly explored from the aspects of individual characteristics,family economic characteristics and external environment.However,there are few researches on farmers’ adoption behaviors from the perspectives of their behavior attitudes,subjective norms and perceived behavior control,thus restricting the effective diffusion of this technology.Taking cotton in Xinjiang as an example,this study constructed a two-dimensional analysis framework of "Technology benefit--Farmer behavior",and the logical and stable communication elements formed by the bio-agricultural technology(BAT)diffusion were systematically analyzed from the perspectives of technical benefit measurement and farmers’ behavior by adopting the methods of self-discipline and social science,qualitative and quantitative,macro-statistics and micro-investigation.Firstly,based on statistical data of 2000-2020,the spatial and temporal characteristics of cotton production and input intensity of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in Xinjiang were analyzed in general and compared with the major cotton-growing provinces in China in the same period.The contribution of chemical fertilizers and pesticides to cotton yield was measured by stochastic frontier production function method,and judged whether the input of chemical fertilizers and pesticides on cotton production in different periods was excessive and their reduce potential.Then,based on the microscopic investigation data of cotton production and agricultural sample detection data from 2015 to 2020,the secondary evaluation index system of comprehensive benefits of cotton chemical fertilizer and biological fertilizer,chemical pesticide and biological pesticide was established,and the comprehensive benefits of the two types of technologies were objectively evaluated by comparing economic,ecological and comprehensive benefits.The grey prediction model GM(1,1),policy analysis and realistic situation analysis were used to predict the increasing and decreasing trend of the application amount of two types of fertilizers and pesticides in cotton in the future,and the feasibility of replacing chemical fertilizers with biological fertilizers was verified from the theoretical and technical practice level.Then,according to the questionnaire and interview data of cotton farmers,based on the theory of planned behavior(TPB)and the theory of technology diffusion(TTD),the adoption behavior of farmers’ cotton bio-agriculture technology,especially bio-fertilizer and bio-pesticide,was studied by using structural equation model(SEM),and the main influencing factors and existing obstacles of BAT technology diffusion were found out from the two dimensions of the technical benefits comparison and the farmer’ adoption behavior.Finally,after extensive investigation and analysis of the experience and models of bio-agricultural technology popularization at home and abroad,based on the empirical conclusions of this paper,and combined with the integrating the functions of bio-agricultural technology and the economic attributes of cotton,the countermeasures system of cotton bio-agricultural technology popularization in Xinjiang was put forward.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,The continuous increase of chemical fertilizer and pesticide input had shown a negative effect on the improvement of cotton yield per unit area,which indicating that the realistic background of over-quantification of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in Xinjiang cotton and the theoretical feasibility of reducing application and substitution.The proportion of cotton planting area in Xinjiang increased from28.46% to 78.93%,and the proportion of cotton production in Xinjiang increased from 39.58% to 83.75%from 2000 to 2020.The input of chemical fertilizer continued to increase,and the fertilizer input had increased 2.81 times and the pesticide costs 4.33 times,with the average annual growth rate exceeding that of cotton yield per unit area.The elastic coefficient of chemical fertilizer and pesticide to cotton yield growth was-0.290 and-1.169,respectively;the contribution rate was-16.47% and-34.51%,respectively.Secondly,from the dimension of technical comprehensive benefit quantitative evaluation,the feasibility of the practice of reducing the application of chemical technical and spreading the application of biological technical in Xinjiang cotton was verified.By measuring the comprehensive benefits of chemical fertilizer and biological fertilizer,chemical pesticides and biological pesticides,the results show that:(1)the economic benefits of chemical fertilizer group are higher than those of biological fertilizer group,but the ecological benefits of biological fertilizer group are more significant;The comprehensive benefit of bio-fertilizer is slightly lower than that of chemical fertilizer group,but the gap between them is gradually narrowing.The economic benefit of bio-fertilizer in some cotton planting areas has exceeded that of chemical fertilizer application.According to the prediction of grey model,the amount of chemical fertilizer in these areas will be decreasing and the amount of bio-fertilizer will be increasing in the future.(2)The economic benefit of chemical pesticide group is higher,while the ecological benefit of biological pesticide group is significantly higher than that of chemical pesticide group.With the increase of service life,the economic benefits of chemical pesticide group showed a trend of rising first and then decreasing,while the ecological benefits showed a trend of decreasing continuously.The economic,ecological and comprehensive benefits of biological pesticide group showed a continuous growth trend,and the comprehensive benefits of biological pesticide group in most cotton planting areas exceeded those of chemical pesticide group.Thirdly,from the dimension of farmers’ technical value perception,the behavior willingness and its influencing factors of farmers’ bio-agricultural technology were further explored using the structural equation model.The main conclusions are as follows: The perceived usefulness of technology has a positive impact on cotton farmers’ behavior attitude towards bio-agricultural technology,and then affects farmers’ willingness to adopt bio-agricultural technology;The promotion activities of agricultural materials and the perception of fertilizer and medicine by surrounding users have a positive impact on farmers’ subjective norms,and then positively affect farmers’ willingness to adopt bio-agricultural technology.Technical training has a significant positive impact on farmers’ perceived behavior control,while technology cost has a significant negative impact on farmers’ perceived behavior control.Farmers’ perceived behavior control has a significant positive impact on their willingness to adopt bio-agricultural technology.The occurrence probability of farmers’ adoption of bio-agricultural technology is significantly influenced by many factors,such as farmers’ gender,age,education level,technical training,technical accessibility and usability,technical cost,and whether they join agricultural cooperatives or not.Fourthly,comprehensive technical benefit analysis and the research results of farmer’ adoption behavior,the obstacles leading to the low diffusion rate of cotton in Xinjiang were mainly including technical slow efficiency and high cost,farmers’ low awareness and their economic earnings expectations were not guaranteed,lack of environmental regulations and subsidy system,technology market demand and effective supply,insufficient number of new agricultural business entities and low degree of farmers’ organization,technology diffusion system was not sound and so on.Fifthly,combing and summarizing the experience and main practices of bio-agricultural technology promotion at home and abroad,and summarizing the policy implications for the promotion of cotton bio-agricultural technology in Xinjiang:(1)strengthening government regulation and market incentives;(2)pay attention to the investment in bio-agricultural technological innovation;(3)constructing diversified technology diffusion system and enhancing technology availability;(4)pay attention to the cultivation and promotion of farmers’ green production ideas and behaviors.Finally,from the perspective of objective environment and farmers’ subjective dual driving,this paper puted forward some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the popularization and application of cotton bio-agriculture technology in Xinjiang,from improving the government incentive and regulation design(which including strengthen economic subsidies,increase technology innovation investment and market incentive,strengthen technology diffusion publicity and service,strengthen fertilizer and pesticide environment regulation)and farmers’ awareness and behavior guidance(which including enhance pro-environment awareness,improve bio-agriculture technology adoption,improve self-behavior efficiency and green technology accomplishment,cultivation of new business entities and farmers’ training)two dimensions.The results will provide policy basis for promoting the reduction of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in cotton and promoting the stable development of cotton industry,and provide theoretical support for the implementation of China’s agricultural "double reduction" plan. |
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