A Study On Early-warning Of Defense Acquisition In Risk

In every period of life-cycle during the defense acquisition, the uncertainty is flooding and results in a ubiquitous phenomenon: rate of progress is made slower, expense is more and more, standard is lower and lower; sometimes even worse, this kind of uncertainty makes the acquisition impossible, which has bad influence on the benefit improvement of national defense. This essay starts with the study on relationship of uncertainty and risk in defense acquisition, brings forward that early-warning mechanism of risk is an efficient way to keep away the risks in the acquisition of weapons and equipments. The essay earnestly analyzes the uncertainties in the every period of life-span cycle of weapons and equipments, sums up the typical risk factors and typical risk gene. And on this base of analysis and summing up, the essay establishes the index system of risk evaluation in life- cycle of defense acquisition, including risk in technology, risk in support, risk in management, risk in contractor and risk in fund, five in all. To cope with the shortcoming of common risk evaluation method,this passage proposes a modified evaluation method—the Model of Entropy-weighted Double Base Points(MEDBP). Furthermore, the essy testified the effectiveness and practicability of the supposed model by practical examines and researches. In the end, the essay makes several suggestions to reduce the risk in the defense acquisition: consummate the early-warning system of risk, implement the report system of project progress, construct an integrated system to prevent and cure the risk of technology, introduction of competition mechanism and so on.