Research On System Science Theory And Technique System Of Risk Analysis & Demonstration Analysis

The thesis gives a definition of risk analysis , which consists of two conceptual groups.(1)conceptual groups of risk. Including risk, risk subject, risk factor, risk object, state of risk, risk event etc.(2)conceptual groups of risk analysis .Ranging from risk analysis ,risk recognition ,risk evaluation to risk management and risk communication The definitions of these conceptions and the essential conditions in developing the theory of risk analysis.In the thesis ,the author also constructs a model system of risk and risk analysis ,which contains risk model ,thc process of risk analysis model and so on ,serving the purpose if further explaining the definitions mentioned above models.The author briefly study the systems engineering methods applying to the risk analysis .Interprotative structural modeling (ISM) ;and qualitative emulation method involving Kuipers' as well as that of system dynamic ;and uncertainty inference technique containing probability inference ,evidence inference 'fuzzy inference and information inference and presented in the thesis according to the characteristics of risk These methods and techniques and testified to hove values of universal relevance.During the positive analysis, the author supplies a qualitative evaluation of the risk factors in Bonine Songiform Encephalopatby by using interpretive structural model .This evaluation is only one part of the whole process in risk analysis ,or we can say it is on component of risk recognition .Clear conclusion can be drawn through operation ,that is ,the containing of PrP'~ in ruminant's fodder ,tbe scrapie of the sheep as well as the Bonine Songiform Encephalopathy in the estimate countries can be embodied in the same strong connected fields .This conclusion shows no difference between what has been written by professor Xie Zhonglun in his article "Risk Analysis and Assessment of BSE in China "in which he adopted other techniques.