A Study On The Decision-Making Of The Japanese Government On The "Nationalization" Of The Diaoyu Islands

The Diaoyu Islands and their affiliated islands(hereinafter referred to as the Diaoyu Islands)have been China’s inherent territory since ancient times and are supported by history and the law.On September 10,2012,the Noda government formally implemented the so-called “nationalization” of the “Diaoyu Islands and their affiliated islands,” a total of three islands,through a cabinet meeting.Sino-Japanese relations dropped to the freezing point.By studying Japan’s decision to nationalize the Diaoyu Islands,we can deepen our understanding of the mode of diplomatic decision-making and explore the general relationship between the mode of decision-making and inter-state relations.At the same time,it will be useful for us to have a deeper understanding of the logic of Japan’s diplomatic decision-making system and its particularities.The thesis combed through the development of Western diplomatic decision-making theories and Japanese diplomatic decision-making theories,and based on deconstructing their edges and shortcomings,constructed a research framework for analyzing Japan’s decision-making on “nationalization” of the Diaoyu Islands,i.e.,the triadic analytical framework of “environment-institution-cognition”,and evaluated the decision-making logic of Japan’s “nationalization” and its diplomatic decision-making system by examining the core variables in the three dimensions of the decision-making.In terms of international environmental variables,on the one hand,the Noda administration faces multiple international environmental pressures,including the synergistic effects of the U.S.“Asia-Pacific Rebalancing” strategy,the peaceful rise of China,and territorial disputes with neighboring countries.On the other hand,the Noda administration is also facing environmental pressures arising from the domestic Democratic Party’s governing difficulties,the fomenting of territorial nationalism,and the transformation of its maritime strategy.From the perspective of institutional variables,the DPJ’s political reform has serious institutional defects,and the DPJ’s dominance of the prime minister’s office politics and small-group decision-making have interpreted the mechanisms and methods used by the core decision-makers to promote decision-making at different levels,and the negative impacts of its institutional shortcomings have also been verified by the results of Noda’s decision-making behavior of “nationalization”.From the perspective of cognitive variables,the individual cognition of the leaders,the collective cognition of the think tanks within the decision-making group,and the cognition of the other decision-making participants include both rational political calculations and irrational value judgments and interests of the prime minister,the decision-making group,and the decision-making participants,which are complex and incompletely rational cognitive conflicts,explaining the chaos of the decision-making of Noda’s Administration.Finally,it attempts to reconstruct the actual process of nationalization negotiations.It analyzes the domestic process of the “Noda-Tokyo Metropolitan Government-Kurihara family” with the game of “ownership” at the core and the international process of“China-Japan-US” with the dual game strategy of “sovereignty” at the core.In a sense,the essence of the triadic framework of environment,system,and cognition lies in the “mutual determination” and “mutual construction” of the three variables,which ultimately shape the policy of “nationalization” of the Diaoyu Islands.Environmental,institutional,and cognitive factors can all be determinants of diplomatic decision-making in a given context and shape the role of other variables.This relationship forms the basis for our understanding of the causes of the Japanese government’s decision-making on the Diaoyu Islands and the overall characteristics of its foreign policy decisions,as well as the stable and replicable generative model of Japanese foreign policy.From the perspective of the development trend of Japan’s foreign policy decision-making system after the implementation of “nationalization”,Japan’s political environment,political and diplomatic system,and cognitive system have undergone a drastic shift.Japan’s foreign policy and behavior also appeared to have an obvious uni-lateralization trend,which is Japan’s “nationalization” of the Diaoyu Islands policy to produce the “demonstration effect”.Japan’s decision-making to “nationalize” the Diaoyu Islands is not an isolated one but an integral part of its national and international strategies.It is foreseeable that the disputes between China and Japan over the Diaoyu Islands may repeatedly intensify.Since the Diaoyu Islands issue has been closely nested with the strategic issues of national sovereignty,great power competition,and the transformation of regional and global patterns,the resolution of this issue requires a high degree of political wisdom,firm political will,and long-lasting political patience.