| High-quality development is a distinct theme of China’s economic and social construction,an important deployment related to the overall and long-term development of China’s modernization drive,and it’s the only way to establish a new development pattern.General Secretary Xi Jinping’s report at the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that ‘High-quality development is the primary task of building a modern socialist country in all respects’,and building a modern industrial system is the key to achieving high-quality development and modernization.As an organic part of China’s industrial system,promoting industrial development in ethnic regions is an important part of building China’s modern industrial system and it is a necessary measure to achieve high-quality development in all respects.As the main body of social and economic activities,population participates in all economic activities such as social production,distribution,exchange and consumption.Economic development is essentially a process of continuous innovation and structural change of technology and industry,the core of industrial development is people,and the change of demographic structure will inevitably have an important impact on industrial development.In recent years,there have been some significant changes in China’s demographic development,which not only faces the pressure of a large population,but also faces the challenges brought by the transformation of demographic structure.Due to demographic policy,cultural factors and other reasons,the demographic structure of ethnic regions in China,whether it is quantitative structure or quality structure,has certain characteristics compared with other regions.In the first meeting of the 20 th Central Finance and Economics Commission,General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized the need to "support Chinese-style modernization with high-quality population development",therefore,under the background of the change of demographic structure in China,it is of theoretical and practical value to study the mechanism and influence of demographic structure on industrial development in ethnic regions,so as to promote the high-quality development of industry and accelerate Chinese modernization in ethnic regions.This paper is based on the background of ethnic regions’ economic and social development,demographic structure change is taken as the entry point of studying the problems of industrial quality development in ethnic regions,using relevant theories of industrial upgrading,related theories of demographic structure change,related theories of economic growth and General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important statements about high-quality development to explore the rule of demographic structure change,the evolution feature of industrial structure and the current situation of industry’s high-quality development in ethnic regions;From the perspectives of supply and demand,panel model,mediating effect model,threshold effect model and the difference in difference model are used to empirically analyze the influence and the mechanism that demographic structure change acts on high-quality industrial development in ethnic regions,furthermore,by constructing the coupling coordination degree model,the coupling coordination relationship among the subsystems of the high-quality industrial development in ethnic regions is explored;Taking Zhijin County of Guizhou Province,Lancang County of Yunnan Province and Horqin Left-Wing Middle Banner of Inner Mongolia as the research objects,this paper summarizes and analyzes the industrial structure transformation and high-quality industrial development of the three counties’ ethnic regions from the perspective of demographic change.Finally,according to the results of theoretical research and empirical research,this paper puts forward the ideas of promoting high-quality development of industries in ethnic regions from the perspective of demographic change.The main research work of this paper is as follows: Firstly,this paper defines four core concepts which involved in this paper,including ethnic regions and ’eight ethnic provinces’,demographic structure,industrial structure and high-quality development of industry;This paper summarizes the existing research results in three aspects: demographic structure and economic development,demographic structure and industrial development,high-quality development in ethnic regions;Arranging relevant theories of industrial upgrading,demographic structure change and economic growth,reviewing General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important statements about high-quality development;Secondly,taking the founding of the People ’s Republic of China in 1949 as the starting point for the research,China’s fertility policy is divided into four stages: the stage of encouraging fertility policy,the initial formation stage of family planning policy,the comprehensive and strict implementation stage of family planning policy,and the adjustment stage of family planning policy.The fertility policy for China ’s ethnic population is divided into two stages: ’early stage’ and ’late stage’.On this basis,the characteristics of demographic structure change in ethnic regions are analyzed in depth from the aspects of demographic structure,demographic quality structure and demographic spatial structure;Thirdly,based on the analysis of the evolution rule of industrial structure in ethnic regions,and according to the new development concept and the requirements of high-quality development,specific indicators are selected from the five dimensions of ’economic development,innovation driven,people’s well-being,green ecology and security guarantee’ to establish an index evaluation system for ethnic regions’ high-quality industrial development.The principal component analysis method is used to measure the high-quality industrial development in ethnic regions,and its current status of development is discussed and compared with other regions;Fourthly,separately from the supply side and the demand side,the panel model,the mediating effect model,the threshold effect model and the difference-in-difference model are constructed to empirically analyze the impact of demographic structure change on high-quality development of industries in ethnic regions and its mechanism of action,the regression results are compared with other regions as well;Fifthly,based on the evaluation system of industrial high-quality development index,this paper constructs a coupling coordination degree model based on principal component analysis to explore the coupling coordination among the subsystems of industrial high-quality development in ethnic regions;Sixthly,taking Zhijin County of Guizhou Province,Lancang County of Yunnan Province and Horqin Left-Wing Middle Banner of Inner Mongolia as the analysis objects to deepen the research of this paper.Based on the theoretical and empirical research above,the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:At first,from the perspective of the characteristics of demographic structure change,the degree of population aging in ethnic regions is relatively low,and the demographic age structure has a comparative advantage.However,there is a big gap in demographic cultural quality,demographic physical quality and the optimization of demographic spatial structure when compared with national average level;From the current situation of industrial development,the scale of industrial development in ethnic regions continues to expand,the industrial structure has been further optimized and improved,and the labor productivity of three main industries has been significantly promoted.Meanwhile,the overall level of highquality industrial development has also increased rapidly,and the development level of each subsystem has been greatly enhanced.At second,in general,there is a positive relationship between urbanization rate,new urbanization rate and industrial quality;The increasing of the new urbanization rate can promote high-quality development of industry at different quantiles,while the deepening of aging degree and the improvement of non-agricultural participation rate can promote the high-quality development of industry in ethnic regions at low quantiles and inhibit at high quantiles;The implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy has a tendency to restrict the high-quality development of industries in ethnic regions.At third,from the perspective of demand side,the change of residents’ consumption scale is an important channel for the change of demographic structure in ethnic regions to act on high-quality development of industry,which means,the deepening of aging degree in ethnic regions and the improvement of new urbanization rate can expand the scale of residents’ consumption,thus having positive impacts on high-quality development of industry,and there also exists a chain intermediary effect;From the side of supply,there is a significant positive impact between abundant natural resources,the improvement of market power and the high-quality development of industries in ethnic regions,and the income level of residents has a moderating effect when population aging acts on the high-quality development of industries.At fourth,from the perspective of internal coupling and coordination of high-quality industrial development,during the period from 2000 to 2008,the upward trend of the coupling and coordination development level among the subsystems of high-quality industrial development in ethnic regions was not obvious,some provinces even had a downward trend;From 2008 to 2020,the coupling coordination degree of ethnic regions showed a clear upward trend,among which Guizhou’s coupling coordination degree rose most rapidly.At fifth,taking Zhijin County of Guizhou Province,Lancang County of Yunnan Province and Horqin Left-Wing Middle Banner of Inner Mongolia as the case analysis objects,the study finds that the change of demographic structure has an essential impact on the high-quality development of industries in ethnic regions.Among them,the improvement of demographic cultural quality and the change of demographic urban-rural structure can promote the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure in ethnic regions,while the aging problem poses a challenge to the high-quality development of industries in ethnic regions,it also brings opportunities for the development of pension industry.According to the research conclusions above,based on the actual development of ethnic regions in China,this paper holds that to promote high-quality development of industries in ethnic regions under the background of demographic change,on the one hand,we should promote the development of silver industry and ethnic cultural and creative products,so as to meet the multi-level and diversified needs of people in ethnic regions;On the other hand,it is necessary to absorb and retain labor population,meet the needs of human resources for industrial development in ethnic regions,and improve the quality of workers by establishing a high-quality education system,so as to promote industrial development in ethnic regions to a greater quality. |
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